THE AFL’s official number cruncher, Champion Data, selects the top 30 players from across the country based on their statistical performances in recent years.
The stats guru placed Rising Star winner Lewy Taylor at No.6 last year, 22 picks earlier than his name was called.
Previously, they have identified Rory Sloane and Tom Rockliff as stars of the future before watching them fall down the order.
NO.1 PICK: INSIDE THE SAINTS’ FUTURE SUMMIT
FAVOURITES: RECRUITERS REVEAL THEIR TOP PICKS
If it was picking from a schoolyard, this is how Thursday’s national draft order would look.
Champion Data’s rankings includes only those players who appeared at the national under-18 championships.
Our own draft experts, Sam Landsberger and Jay Clark, also run their eye over the rankings and give their verdict on how they might compare to the actual draft.
* PRE-ORDER THE ‘2015 AFL PROSPECTUS’ BY GOING TO championdata.com.au
Pick Me for AFL Draft: Christian Petracca
1. CHRISTIAN PETRACCA (186cm midfielder)
Big-bodied goalkicking midfielder ready to play now, similar to Ollie Wines. Across his two TAC Cup seasons averaged 129 SuperCoach points, 21 disposals and more than two goals per game.
WE SAY: Put his nose ahead of McCartin at the national championships. Saints rejected picks 4 and 7 for rights to this explosive star.
2. PADDY McCARTIN (194cm key forward)
Needs time, but dominated past two TAC Cup seasons, averaging 14 disposals and kicking 41 goals from 13 games.
WE SAY: Paul Roos lamented a lack of key forwards and McCartin will likely form a potent combination with Jesse Hogan and Chris Dawes.
Isaac Heeney is headed to the Swans with pick 18, but he’s rated far higher. Picture: Justin Sanson
3. ISAAC HEENEY (185cm midfielder)
Steal of the draft. Averaged 27 disposals, 16 contested, six clearances, eight tackles and 139 SuperCoach points at the national championships.
WE SAY: The Swans have secured Heeney for pick 18 and will get a similar bargain next year, with fellow academy midfielder Callum Mills arguably the No.1 talent.
4. ANGUS BRAYSHAW (187cm inside midfielder)
Wins his own ball and provides run-and-carry, as demonstrated in his first Vic Metro game where he gained an amazing 737m from 32 disposals.
WE SAY: The Demons missed on Ollie Wines but won’t make the same mistake with this fearless on-baller.
Peter Wright is among the best big men in this year’s draft pool. Picture: David Smith
5. PETER WRIGHT (203cm ruck/key forward)
Wright is a ruckman who can push forward. Averaged 12 disposals, 21 hit-outs and kicked six goals from five Vic Metro matches.
WE SAY: Could land anywhere between Geelong (pick 10) and Essendon (17). The big slider, like Brodie Grundy.
6. JAKE LEVER (193cm key defender)
Missed 2014 as he recovered from an ACL, but last year averaged 18 disposals, five rebound 50s, three intercept marks and 95 SuperCoach points per game as a bottom-aged defender for Calder Cannons.
WE SAY: Tall defender Lever was on track to be a top-three selection before rupturing his ACL, making some clubs nervous.
Jarrod Pickett looking to get picked in AFL draft
7. JARROD PICKETT (177cm outside midfielder)
Silky midfielder who pushes forward. Rated an elite goalkicker for a midfielder at the championships and an above average kick.
WE SAY: Collingwood would like him at No.5 but expect GWS to pounce on the speed machine a pick before.
8. DARCY MOORE (199cm swingman)
Drifted between the arcs for Vic Metro but averaged 91 SuperCoach points and two goals as a key forward.
WE SAY: Athletic swingman with captaincy potential will join Collingwood at No.9 and take a few years to blossom at AFL level, but the Pies see him as their centre-half back for the next decade.
Lachie Weller is a beautiful kick of the footy. Picture: Luke Marsden
9. LACHIE WELLER (181cm midfielder)
Skilful midfielder. Rated the No.1 kick at the national carnival, recording a kick rating of +34 per cent.
WE SAY: Another classy midfielder jammed in the first-round pack. Would be perfect for the Blues if he lasts until No.19.
10. HUGH GODDARD (196cm key defender)
Capable at both ends but suited to defence. Ranked elite for spoils and intercept marks for Vic Country and lost just three of 13 defensive one-on-one contests.
WE SAY: Brendon Goddard’s cousin has polarised clubs but his intercept marking and smooth rebounding appeals to the Giants.
Western Jets midfielder Corey Ellis is rated highly by Champion Data. Picture: Richard Serong
11. COREY ELLIS (184cm midfielder)
Inside midfielder who averaged 22 disposals, five clearances and four inside 50s for Western Jets with half his possessions contested.
WE SAY: Could find a home at the Tigers at No.12 while the Saints would love him to slip past Essendon and North Melbourne.
12. JORDAN DE GOEY (187cm midfielder)
De Goey is a midfielder with weapons forward, booting 14 goals from nine TAC Cup matches and averaging 15 disposals.
WE SAY: The inside-outside midfielder has tricks weaving out of traffic with the Cats watching closely.
Pick Me for AFL Draft: Paul Ahern
13. PAUL AHERN (181cm midfield/half-forward)
Classy player who averaged the fourth most disposals at the national championships of any forward and ranked above average for goals, score assists and score involvements.
WE SAY: Could be the most talented in the pool but can he put it on show consistently? Giants lurking.
14. JACK STEELE (188cm inside midfielder)
The No.1 ranked midfielder in the national carnival, averaging the most goals and score involvements. Recorded the third-best kicking rating of any player to average more than 20 disposals.
WE SAY: Powerful inside midfielder and academy graduate who will join the Giants at pick 24, freeing up their first three selections for flashier types. Overlooked last year after a knee injury.
Vic Metro's Jayden Laverde. Picture: Colleen Petch
15. JAYDEN LAVERDE (189cm midfielder)
Played as an attacking midfielder at the championships, averaging 17 disposals and five score involvements. Has pace and uses it, gaining more than 300m per game.
WE SAY: Has been linked to the Pies at No.5 for months but the dangerous utility could find his way outside the top 10.
16. CALEB DANIEL (167cm forward)
The No.1 ranked player at the championships, rating elite for disposals and was the best kick of any forward, particularly damaging going inside 50. His South Australia output nothing short of amazing.
WE SAY: Recruiters have a history of overlooking blokes only 167cm, but this little fella could be the next “Boomer” Harvey. Might last until rookie draft.
Pick Me for AFL Draft: Jack Lonie
17. JACK LONIE (174cm goalsneak)
Lonie’s strength is his creativity near goals. Rated above average for kicks going inside 50, goals and score involvements. Ranked fourth for score assists. Think Zach Merrett.
WE SAY: Size will count against him, but the cousin of Nathan and Ryan Lonie loves the big stage. He tackles, kicks goals, forces mistakes and has a fiery streak.
18. CLEM SMITH (177cm midfielder)
Smith can push into defence and averaged the second-most intercept possessions of any midfielder at the carnival. His possessions netted a 400m gain per match.
WE SAY: Began 2014 as a hot prospect but the Byron Pickett-type has slid down most clubs’ orders. Expect WA teams to consider in the second round.
19. BRAYDEN MAYNARD (187cm midfielder)
Thrived drifting between midfield and half-back for Sandringham Dragons. Maynard averaged 22 disposals, four inside 50s, three clearances and slotted 15 goals from 17 matches.
WE SAY: His booming left foot biggest weapon but still needs to boost endurance. If Crows don’t reach at No.14 he will slot into the 20s.
20. NAKIA COCKATOO (186cm midfielder)
Inside midfielder who won 61 per cent of possessions contested from 13 games Champion Data covered.
WE SAY: Rising with a bullet. Blitzed the Grand Final curtain-raiser and draft combine after finally overcoming a nasty foot fracture. Eagles considering at pick 11.
Caleb Marchbank in action for Victoria Country earlier this year. Picture: Colleen Petch
21. CALEB MARCHBANK (193cm key defender)
A key defender who can win the ball back off the opposition. Picked up 20 disposals (nine from intercepts) in first Vic Country game.
WE SAY: Classy backman with a strong rebound game. Carlton hoping he’s on the board at pick 19.
22. JOSH McGUINESS (189cm defender)
A ball magnet at half-back, his under-18 numbers resembled Kade Kolodjashnij’s last year. Averaged the most disposals of any defender and ranked No.1 for rebound 50s.
WE SAY: This All-Australian mid-sized defender could be a late-order gem. Late developer who missed out last year.
Pick Me for AFL Draft: Liam Duggan
23. LIAM DUGGAN (183cm midfielder)
A clean ball user who hits the scoreboard, Duggan was one of only 11 TAC Cup players to average more than one goal and 20 disposals.
WE SAY: Clubs have the silky midfielder much higher with Richmond (pick 12) praying Gold Coast (8) and West Coast (11) don’t pounce.
24. TOM LAMB (193cm utility)
Consistency biggest concern. He twice won more than 20 disposals and twice failed to reach 10 disposals for Vic Country this year.
WE SAY: Another 193cm utility whose inconsistencies have left recruiters scratching their heads. Bombers and Blues keen at the back end of first round.
25. CONNOR BLAKELY (189cm inside midfielder)
Blakely thrives at stoppages, ranking elite for contested possessions and No.1 for clearances while playing for Western Australia.
WE SAY: Bunbury boy prepared to get his hands dirty. A courageous and contested on-baller who should find a home in the 20s.
North Adelaide's Harrison Wigg is considered one of SA's top draft prospects this year. Picture: Sam Wundke
26. HARRISON WIGG (178cm defender)
Creative defender who uses the ball well by foot. Ranked elite as a defender for disposals, metres gained and intercept possessions at the national carnival.
WE SAY: Recovering from a stress fracture in foot, the small defender with pinpoint foot skills was South Australia’s MVP and will be a late pick.
27. TYLER KEITEL (194cm swingman)
A genuine swingman, Keitel was the No.1 ranked player when in attack for Western Australia, while he averaged the most disposals of any defender when thrown into the backline.
WE SAY: The 194cm swingman is athletically gifted but will be a late pick.
Pick Me for AFL Draft: Ed Vickers-Willis
28. ED VICKERS-WILLIS (190cm utility)
Suited to playing as a third defender, his strength is reading the play. Ranked No.1 for intercept possessions at the national championships.
WE SAY: Versatility-plus. Can play as a lockdown defender, tagger or be released and could be headed to the kennel at pick 26.
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Pick Me: Touk Miller
29. TOUK MILLER (177cm inside midfielder)
One of only eight TAC Cup players to average more than 20 disposals, five clearances and six tackles. Does his best work at stoppages.
WE SAY: Clubs think this clever midfielder will be a nice get in the 20s or 30s. Clean hands and natural leadership.
30. JOSH FOX (197cm ruckman)
Can win the ball around the ground and hit the scoreboard. Was the No.1 ranked ruckman for SuperCoach points, disposals and score involvements at the national carnival.
WE SAY: Not on the radars of many clubs so this high ranking is a surprise. Rookie chance at best.
* 2014 NAB AFL Draft — live and exclusive on Fox Footy from 6:30pm AEDT on Thursday November 27.
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