Someone recently made a comment to me about South Africa and the ANC and a comparison which bears some thought.
It is an interesting comparison they made.
Back in the 1960s to the 1980s the ANC were often labelled a terrorist organisation. The did set up MK (uMkhonto we Sizwe or Spear of the Nation) as their armed wing after peaceful actions failed and their situation was seemingly hopeless.
They did blow up a couple of things, but the point made was that you would never have seen MK do what Hamas did. This is a reasonable point, there is no way MK would have attacked citizens in South Africa with the express goal of killing civilians like Hamas did. So the point is well made, Hamas' actions are well beyond what is acceptable.
But this comparison is one sided.
The South African government did shoot protesters and killed a lot of black South Africans. But the same comparison can be made between the South African government and the Israel government. The South African government would never have carpet bombed the bantustans, nor would they starve them of food, power and water.
Both sides in this conflict are more than willing to treat the other side as if they are somehow sub-human.
I have often thought that the Israelis did not learn the lesson of South Africa. Negotiate with the more moderate older leadership while you have the chance (ie: the PLO and Arafat) because if you don't then you will end up facing off with the young radicals. Yes, Israel did do a deal with Arafat and the PLO but they did not do a real deal. The deal in South Africa was a real resolution to the problem, it abolished apartheid. The deals with the PLO were not a real 2 state solution, and they did not abide by them anyway, the ongoing settlements creeping further and further into what was meant to be a Palestinian state under a 2 state solution have made the Oslo Accords irrelevant, add to that the way Israel treats the West Bank and Gaza as territories they control and you have no solution at all.
There are 2 realities here:
- Israel exists, it is not about to disappear.
- Israel exists on land which was where the Palestinians lived prior to 1948.
These 2 realities cannot be reconciled with a 2 state solution any more (if they ever could), the disjointed nature of the Palestinian territories and the incursions by Israeli settlements has rendered this impossible. But a 1 state solution cannot be agreed to by Israel as they know the demographics are against them. Plus, there are so many issues around the right of return, for both displaced Palestinians and Jews fleeing anti-semitism, that it would be very difficult.
Not sure where we go from here. The Israeli policy of kicking the can down the road and consolidating the existence of the State of Israel has served their interests, but it was always going to be a short to medium term solution. In terms of a long term solution it offers nothing. The Palestinians are not going to go out of existence and they have a legitimate grievance over the way they were removed to create the State of Israel. The Palestinians may feel hopeless and are desperate, but the actions of Hamas don't help their cause. Yes, a short term hit in terms of an international focus on Israel/Palestine, but in terms of a solution it offers nothing.
Depressing really, I think the only long term solution is 1 state, but that is so difficult, in fact impossible, as it stands now.
What a mess.
DS
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