100%. Thats the clincher. I was working more on 200 games though, which is a pretty good proxy for a champ'
Another way to look at it, if we'd kept/ keep all the picks we are trading for TT and JH, we probably draft a good player and an OK player. No guarantees, just probably.
Here's just a rough shoot of my observations over the past 20 years.
* Picks 1-5 are generally bankable picks but to ensure you avoid blunders it pays to avoid the outside types, take these players out & you get blue chip certainty, particularly midfielders but grabbing key position players also preferable when the situation arises. I think the most recent trends have seen some exceptional value in the 6-15 range for talls, this is fairly recent so maybe a recalibration of a key forward's worth versus a blue chip mid makes the latter a tad bit more appealing. A good example is Walsh vs King, Rankine vs Lukosius, McCartin vs Petracca. It's probably worthwhile considering a dilution of picks if there's a couple of talls who look the goods. I think the Saints could have done ok grabbing Lever & Wright if talls were a priority.
* Picks 6-15 become more of a crap shoot but this is where the key forward rivers of gold can be found. Trading out of this range can make finding a tall forward a bit more difficult. This is also the range you can find the elite rebounders of the competition, if it's a good year then you can land a Rich, Hurn, or Salem but be warned, if these guys are not capable of elite kicking efficiency then you are more than likely to have your investment watered down over time.
* Picks 16-30 represent prime real estate for elite inside mids, it's a range that continually produces genuine A grade talents, Bolton, Miller, Beams, Fyfe, Shuey, Merrett etc. It's one of the reason's I don't like wasting too much draft capital on guys like Hopper. I think Taranto's worth a bit more pronounced given he can potentially play forward but if I'm trading a future first I'm only doing it for a well-rounded mid or a key position forward.
