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General Trade Discussion 2022
- Thread starter tigersnake
- Start date
Yeah was hoping we'd get that pick, but sounded like if Soldo goes we get their future 3rd. Maybe we can then trade our own 3rd into this years draft to get a late pick. Maybe Pick 45 from GC? It would end up around 39.
Yeah. Stats-wise there isn't a lot of difference in strike rate between 6 and 20.
also interesting is the small difference between a pick in the 20s, and a pick between 31 and 50.
Pick 6-10: 28 per cent
Pick 11-20: 27 per cent
Pick 21-30: 13 per cent
Pick 31-50: 15 per cent
Wow some drop away. In 2018 they trade Pick 43 and a F2 (turned out to be pick 26) and they got a 4th bac. 4 years later they trade him for a swap of 4ths.
Another fail for Silvagni (twice with Setterfield).
So the question you have to ask yourself is, with all of our 3 first round picks being in the 11-20 tier @ 27%, and another in the 15% tier, how do you rate those %'s v the % of Hopper and Taranto .....all whilst taking into consideration whether you're in the Premiership window or not ?
That's an illogical argument to make. That there is a lack of evidence for something not happening does not equate to evidence of something happening.
12 and 19 might both be superstars, or they might both be duds. Stats say you've got a 2 out of 3 chance of drafting one 200 gamer with both picks. Obviously the odds of 150 gamer is better, probs 100% of getting one with both picks.
Hopper 40% chance of a 200 gamer with both picks (and probs 60-70% 150 gamer but I'm guessing), plus an aggressive premiership ruckman.
Its pretty obvious why GWS reckon we pulled up short with Hopper for F1 and 30.
Both deals similar, both unders IMO.
And vice versa.
To think that someone with that level of intel is not going to use it in their new role as the CEO of a club is naïve in the extreme.
Been reading some of the crap on here re trades. I laugh when our supporters (rightly so) knock the hell out of comments from Lloyd and Cornes et al but then get stuck into our clubs strategy and some of our players. Please give the Experts and Professionals who get payed at Richmond some credit for doing their research and jobs. Truth is they surely know better than the mud rakers and continual nay sayers here on PRE. Just like to finish by saying I respect everybody has a right to an opinion by Sheesh - on the balance of whats been said here???
So if they're: a) both unders based on the %'s and b) you also think that Richmond are in a Premiership window - which just about every flag waving PRE'ender seems to think - then those people calling out these deals as being ridiculous are not looking at the probability equation and also contradicting their own outlook on where Richmond is at.
Yes.
Its unders if we aren't in the window, big unders if we are. People overvalue draft picks in-general, I understand why, its the money or the box situation.
Correct. So you can clearly see what the club's strategy is both from a valuation perspective and a "window" perspective. It makes sense.
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I know it's usually a waste of time arguing with a conspiracy theorist, but I'm continually amazed how someone can form an opinion with no evidence whatsoever and then call others out for not believing the same thing.
