Damien Hardwick

[tigersnake]

2016
Harry Morrison at 74
Mitch Lewis at 76

2017
James Worpel at 45
Dylan Moore at 67
Jiath as a zone selection

2018
Josh Koschitzke at 52

2019
Will Day at 13
Finn McGuiness at 29

2020
Grainger-Barrass at 5
Mitchell at 29
Downie at 35
Brockman at 46

2021
Ward, McDonald & Butler

They've outdrafted us with significantly worse picks. That's pretty compelling evidence that Clarke and Hartley are overrated

Do you mean they have drafted better players than us full-stop or better than us with lower picks? The busts should be included in order to assess strike rate. I take your point though, without being a Hawks expert, their strike rate with low picks on the face of it seems above average. But it is still a numbers game, they have traded out of early picks since their flags which has hurt them. We haven't. The stars are drafted early.

I don't accept it as compelling evidence.

We've had a few late first round busts, but we've also got Shai and Noah. We've also had a few late pick hits, Bakes, Marlion, maybe Parker and Biggie.

 

[Redford]

Heaven forbid he has an opinion on something non-football related.

It was a silly one Frehley.

 

[Smoking Aces]

It was a silly one Frehley.

No doubt if he had his time again he wouldn’t say it. But we love to exaggerate things.

 

[Scoop]

Does Dimma want to rebuild? Does he want to build again? Teach the lesson, cultivate a new set of leaders? Make the harsh calls on players he has made? Is he happy? Fascinating case study. What does history tell us? Who has the best record AFTER coaching their third flag? What does the next five years look like after a team wins its third flag? When does the next one happen?

 

[tigertime2]

Does Dimma want to rebuild? Does he want to build again? Teach the lesson, cultivate a new set of leaders? Make the harsh calls on players he has made? Is he happy? Fascinating case study. What does history tell us? Who has the best record AFTER coaching their third flag? What does the next five years look like after a team wins its third flag? When does the next one happen?

We need a new 5 year plan. 120k membership 2 flags. Success is planned.

 

[seven]

It was a silly one Frehley.

Agree. Why say it?
Is Dimma losing his marbles?

 

[Tigaman]

Thought he missed the boat when Grimes went off & he did not move Balta back there. Also at a centre bounce in the last quarter smalls were Cotch, Titch & Dow. Cotch & Titch yes two years ago but not now. Young legs are burning them off.

 

[Sintiger]

2016
Harry Morrison at 74
Mitch Lewis at 76

2017
James Worpel at 45
Dylan Moore at 67
Jiath as a zone selection

2018
Josh Koschitzke at 52

2019
Will Day at 13
Finn McGuiness at 29

2020
Grainger-Barrass at 5
Mitchell at 29
Downie at 35
Brockman at 46

2021
Ward, McDonald & Butler

They've outdrafted us with significantly worse picks. That's pretty compelling evidence that Clarke and Hartley are overrated

Shai Bolton, Jack Graham, Noah Balta, Liam Baker were all drafted during that period with a couple of 2nd rounders, a late pick and a rookie selection. All premiership players.
A few average players on that hawthorn list. Lewis has played a couple of good games and is now a superstar, Koschitzke the same, McGinness ??, Mitchell?
They got serious a few years ago as I said. Let’s see how our 2021 batch stack up against theirs in the future

 

[BT Tiger]

Does Dimma want to rebuild? Does he want to build again? Teach the lesson, cultivate a new set of leaders? Make the harsh calls on players he has made? Is he happy? Fascinating case study. What does history tell us? Who has the best record AFTER coaching their third flag? What does the next five years look like after a team wins its third flag? When does the next one happen?

Kevin Sheedy is the only one who comes to mind and there were 7 years between 1993 and 2000.

 

[tigersnake]

Does Dimma want to rebuild? Does he want to build again? Teach the lesson, cultivate a new set of leaders? Make the harsh calls on players he has made? Is he happy? Fascinating case study. What does history tell us? Who has the best record AFTER coaching their third flag? What does the next five years look like after a team wins its third flag? When does the next one happen?

Great post. Good questions. As said earlier, going to the draft so soon after a flag is out of the ordinary and is a clear statement the club wants to rebuild, and Dimma would have been part of that decision, but does he have it in him?

What historical comparisons do we have? Sheedy and Malthouse flags spread over 25-odd years Clarkson chased the dragon and crashed and burned. Lethal didn't have it in him, and you could argue he didn't build the flag sides from scratch like Dimma. Bomber Thompson (only 2 but still...) lost his *smile*. Very small sample, 3, I guess history tells us that post triple flag coaches fail to saddle up again and exit stage left.

I have faith.

 

[King Kong]

Does Dimma want to rebuild? Does he want to build again? Teach the lesson, cultivate a new set of leaders? Make the harsh calls on players he has made? Is he happy? Fascinating case study. What does history tell us? Who has the best record AFTER coaching their third flag? What does the next five years look like after a team wins its third flag? When does the next one happen?

I reckon he might take the big coin at Gold Coast at the end of the year if the club is ok with him going.

He will have been slaughtered financially in the divorce so a $1mil a year gig for 3 or 4 years is going to very tempting. Also gets him out of Melb so he can have a fresh start with the new missus and likely kid/s?

He can leave the hard decisions on players and rebuild to someone else that way also. He picks up a very talented group of kids that he can mould via a new culture with scope for very quick improvement.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Does Dimma want to rebuild? Does he want to build again? Teach the lesson, cultivate a new set of leaders? Make the harsh calls on players he has made? Is he happy? Fascinating case study. What does history tell us? Who has the best record AFTER coaching their third flag? What does the next five years look like after a team wins its third flag? When does the next one happen?

It's a fair question. Was rightly re-contracted until end of 2024 but all coaches have a use by date.
2020 took so much out of so many. 2021 was tough too. This year has also been taxing.
Hope he's still got the fire.

 

[King Kong]

It's a fair question. Was rightly re-contracted until end of 2024 but all coaches have a use by date.
2020 took so much out of so many. 2021 was tough too. This year has also been taxing.
Hope he's still got the fire.

Clarkson last contract was a disaster for all concerned. Didn’t want to rebuild and got more destructive in his approach and behaviour. Had a massive blue with Kennett over the succession plan and then forced their hand on a huge payout. Let’s hope it doesn’t go the same way with Dimma

 

[spook]

Kevin Sheedy is the only one who comes to mind and there were 7 years between 1993 and 2000.

Tommy coached his 4th 12 months after his 3rd.

 

[clown]

Probably the kind of coach that does his best work with great assistants he probably is lacking that right now from what we've seen the last couple of years with the inability to adapt to how the afl want the game played. Any team that doesn't play the way the AFL want the game played are going to be punished and find it impossible to win games of football. It is now WWE style sports entertainment.

 

[toothless]

Probably the kind of coach that does his best work with great assistants he probably is lacking that right now from what we've seen the last couple of years with the inability to adapt to how the afl want the game played.

Jury is out as to whether Teague is one of them.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Probably the kind of coach that does his best work with great assistants he probably is lacking that right now from what we've seen the last couple of years with the inability to adapt to how the afl want the game played. Any team that doesn't play the way the AFL want the game played are going to be punished and find it impossible to win games of football. It is now WWE style sports entertainment.

Yes my love of the game died a bit with the rule changes designed to nobble us.
Wouldn't be at all surprised if Dimma lost a bit of passion for it too.
Build a successful game plan that works only for AFL house to dismantle it by changing the format would test anyone's mettle.
Hard enough trying to out think oppo coaches without taking on AFL Execs as well.

 

[Carter]

Stand is a *smile* joke, I can’t stand it.

Feel angry every time I see one of our players rooted to the spot, straining to move.

One of the dumbest rules in AFL history.

 

[spook]

2016
Harry Morrison at 74
Mitch Lewis at 76

2017
James Worpel at 45
Dylan Moore at 67
Jiath as a zone selection

2018
Josh Koschitzke at 52

2019
Will Day at 13
Finn McGuiness at 29

2020
Grainger-Barrass at 5
Mitchell at 29
Downie at 35
Brockman at 46

2021
Ward, McDonald & Butler

They've outdrafted us with significantly worse picks. That's pretty compelling evidence that Clarke and Hartley are overrated

I have been pretty active in examining Clarke's record. But "significantly worse picks"? In 2016-18, yes. But in 2019-2021 they had significantly better picks.

Draft picks 2016-21:
Hawks: 6, 7, 13, 23, 26, 29, 29, 35, 45, 46, 52, 67, 74, 76 (also traded out picks 7, 23, 26, 36 for O'Meara, 14 for Mitchell, 18 for Wingard, 34 for Impey - I wouldn't be praising their "Blair")
Tiges: 9, 17, (17), 20, (20), 21, 25, 28, 29, 29, 30, 34, 40, 43, 53, 54, 58, 62, 63, 72 The two 17/20s are because we got our money back for Higgins and CJ. I've criticised the picks but although it says we used two pick 17s the effect is we just shifted our one pick 17 from 2017 to 2021 and got Brown instead of Higgins. We did the same with our pick 20 (CJ), moved it to the 2022 draft.

That's pretty close, certainly not significantly worse either way. If anything, it favours them. They would have had way better picks than us if they didn't trade them out.

Outdrafted us? They did well with some late picks but you're not swapping Balta for Lewis or Shai for Moore. Shai and Noah with 29 and 25 are easily the best value drafting from either side in that time. Will their two top-10 picks G-Barrass and Ward be as good? I highly doubt it. Sonsie at 28 is every chance to be as good as Ward at 7 - granted Butler and MacDonald at 23/26 might match Sonsie - it's too early to tell, as it is for Downie (1 game), Mitchell (0), Brockman (11) and others.

Dow and Maginness were taken 8 spots apart in 2019. Maginness was touted as a big clearance mid but is averaging 11 disposals and has one clearance from three games this year - Dow is averaging 18.5 and 6 clearances in his two games. But it's too early to judge them too.

Day at 13 and Brown at 17 are very similar types. We were said to be keen on Day, from memory.

Will be keen to revisit in 2-3 years.

 

[tigersnake]

I have been pretty active in examining Clarke's record. But "significantly worse picks"? In 2016-18, yes. But in 2019-2021 they had significantly better picks.

Draft picks 2016-21:
Hawks: 6, 7, 13, 23, 26, 29, 29, 35, 45, 46, 52, 67, 74, 76 (also traded out picks 7, 23, 26, 36 for O'Meara, 14 for Mitchell, 18 for Wingard, 34 for Impey - I wouldn't be praising their "Blair")
Tiges: 9, 17, (17), 20, (20), 21, 25, 28, 29, 29, 30, 34, 40, 43, 53, 54, 58, 62, 63, 72 The two 17/20s are because we got our money back for Higgins and CJ. I've criticised the picks but although it says we used two pick 17s the effect is we just shifted our one pick 17 from 2017 to 2021 and got Brown instead of Higgins. We did the same with our pick 20 (CJ), moved it to the 2022 draft.

That's pretty close, certainly not significantly worse either way. If anything, it favours them. They would have had way better picks than us if they didn't trade them out.

Outdrafted us? They did well with some late picks but you're not swapping Balta for Lewis or Shai for Moore. Shai and Noah with 29 and 25 are easily the best value drafting from either side in that time. Will their two top-10 picks G-Barrass and Ward be as good? I highly doubt it. Sonsie at 28 is every chance to be as good as Ward at 7 - granted Butler and MacDonald at 23/26 might match Sonsie - it's too early to tell, as it is for Downie (1 game), Mitchell (0), Brockman (11) and others.

Dow and Maginness were taken 8 spots apart in 2019. Maginness was touted as a big clearance mid but is averaging 11 disposals and has one clearance from three games this year - Dow is averaging 18.5 and 6 clearances in his two games. But it's too early to judge them too.

Day at 13 and Brown at 17 are very similar types. We were said to be keen on Day, from memory.

Will be keen to revisit in 2-3 years.

Great stuff. Data, good comparative analysis.

No convincincing KK though, other sides good, RFC bad. I want an oompa loompa now daddy!