Coronavirus

[Bill James]

I can't believe some people are still spreading this clear misinformation.

A lot of people don't understand percentages or exponential growth. Or microbiology. Or vaccines.

Worldwide, this is killing 1 in 25 people who test positive. 1 in 25. The seasonal flu is around 1 in a thousand. Now think proportions of the people that you know.

This 'same as the flu' nonsense is why Bondi Beach happened this week. It's why more people will die. Stop. it.

I agree its killing 1 in 25 people who test positive worldwide, but it's not the same as the flu it's better and it's worse.

In Italy (China similar)

COVID is killing zero in 25 people who test positive under 30 that is less than the flu anywhere any year.

COVID is killing about 1 in 120 people who test positive between 30 and 60, that's very similar to a review paper that looked at case fatality rates for the 2009 flu from 50 published studies that put the fatality rate in laboratory-confirmed cases at between 100 to 5000 per 100000 laboratory-confirmed cases. (Between 1 in a 20 and 1 in 1000)

BUT Its killing 1 in 8 people who test positive over 60yo

Compared to flu, the variance in both severity and lethality in the different age demographics is a significant point of difference in COVID.

I don't see how we stop the spread of this, but I do understand the rationale in delaying the infection of old people. I honestly don't understand why the measures are not targeting a lock down of over 65yo rather than full lock down. This is the one demographic that is going to overload the critical care beds, which is the problem we are trying to avoid?

 

[KnightersRevenge]

Coburger can answer in full but herd immunity can be through natural exposure as well as by vaccine.

That may well be the case, but I think it would depend on whether 1st exposure stops you from being able to be a carrier in the future. I don't think we know whether this is true for COVID-19 yet. So it is far too early to be using the term in any case by my reckoning.

 

[tigerdell]

That may well be the case, but I think it would depend on whether 1st exposure stops you from being able to be a carrier in the future. I don't think we know whether this is true for COVID-19 yet. So it is far too early to be using the term in any case by my reckoning.

So Covid19 is a coronavirus, as is many common colds.
And I, along with everybody else, have had colds before. Developed antibodies etc. Then become sick to a variant/mutation next time. The bugger colds just keep banging around the world.

Maybe with this Covid19 the 1st exposure may stop a person being a carrier. Maybe. But its likely that the specific coronavirus will have mutated and so that person will spread it in later exposures.
Its a dangerous guess that there will be herd immunity

 

[Coburgtiger]

Hey CBT, can you chime in on the use of "herd immunity" in relation to unchecked transmission of the virus? It seems to me, lay person, that this is an inappropriate use of jargon to make people sound like they know more than they do. Surely herd immunity involves mass vaccination which is supposed to get to as many people as possible, usually over 95% of the population you are inoculating, and also means they can't then transmit the virus. Allowing people to overcome the virus on their own may improve susceptibility to future infection but it does not mean they cannot still be vectors and thus herd immunity is not achieved? Have got this wrong?

The 'herd immunity' theory as it's being proposed currently is not inaccurate, it's just a little misleading.

Essentially, herd immunity is a phenomenon which occurs when a critical mass of the population is unable to pass on a pathogen (the proportion changes based on the pathogen itself, but let's say 95%).

This means that if one of the remaining 5% contracts it, they have a really small likelihood of coming in contact with any other member of the 5%, so there is no spread of the disease.

Normally you would do this with vaccination. There are two benefits to this.
1. Those gaining immunity are not getting sick.
2. Those people are also not passing on the disease.

This could also be achieved by just letting the pathogen move naturally through the population.
If we let covid19 spread through the population, the idea is, enough of the population contracts it that they eventually can't contract it again, so there won't be a chain of transmission to those most vulnerable.

However, there are some significant drawbacks.
1. People who are gaining immunity will also get sick, and in some cases die.
2. We don't really know how long they shed the virus.

It's possible that instead of getting herd immunity, with such a large population, asymptomatic spreaders, a long incubation period, and potentially a long time while infectious, we simply get a virus that's endemic and continues to come in waves until eventually everyone gets it and recovers or doesn't, or it changes its antigens slightly and everyone will get it again. It's a big unknown.

If you really want the natural herd immunity system to work, you will need to isolate every vulnerable person for a long period of time, while also forcing every other person to get the disease. If even a small percentage don't, then you start getting more spread. This is the problem antivaxxers are causing with things like the measles.

I'll put it this way, the 'natural herd immunity' method is equivalent to cutting out your liver to avoid liver cancer. Yeah, you kinda did it. And now the liver cancer won't spread to your brain. But did you really fix the problem?

If you want to do it right, you need to be really specific with which bits you cut out. I don't know about anyone else, but I don't see our world or even federal governments cooperating well enough for such a delicate surgery.

 

[AngryAnt]

That may well be the case, but I think it would depend on whether 1st exposure stops you from being able to be a carrier in the future. I don't think we know whether this is true for COVID-19 yet. So it is far too early to be using the term in any case by my reckoning.

I agree that the "herd immunity" strategy is a high risk one.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Case count excluding China (updated 11:30pm)

311,269 cases
13,871 deaths (4.46%)
10,608 severe (3%)
256,553 mild (82%)
30,237 recovered (10%)

 

[KnightersRevenge]

The 'herd immunity' theory as it's being proposed currently is not inaccurate, it's just a little misleading.

Essentially, herd immunity is a phenomenon which occurs when a critical mass of the population is unable to pass on a pathogen (the proportion changes based on the pathogen itself, but let's say 95%).

This means that if one of the remaining 5% contracts it, they have a really small likelihood of coming in contact with any other member of the 5%, so there is no spread of the disease.

Normally you would do this with vaccination. There are two benefits to this.
1. Those gaining immunity are not getting sick.
2. Those people are also not passing on the disease.

This could also be achieved by just letting the pathogen move naturally through the population.
If we let covid19 spread through the population, the idea is, enough of the population contracts it that they eventually can't contract it again, so there won't be a chain of transmission to those most vulnerable.

However, there are some significant drawbacks.
1. People who are gaining immunity will also get sick, and in some cases die.
2. We don't really know how long they shed the virus.

It's possible that instead of getting herd immunity, with such a large population, asymptomatic spreaders, a long incubation period, and potentially a long time while infectious, we simply get a virus that's endemic and continues to come in waves until eventually everyone gets it and recovers or doesn't, or it changes its antigens slightly and everyone will get it again. It's a big unknown.

If you really want the natural herd immunity system to work, you will need to isolate every vulnerable person for a long period of time, while also forcing every other person to get the disease. If even a small percentage don't, then you start getting more spread. This is the problem antivaxxers are causing with things like the measles.

I'll put it this way, the 'natural herd immunity' method is equivalent to cutting out your liver to avoid liver cancer. Yeah, you kinda did it. And now the liver cancer won't spread to your brain. But did you really fix the problem?

If you want to do it right, you need to be really specific with which bits you cut out. I don't know about anyone else, but I don't see our world or even federal governments cooperating well enough for such a delicate surgery.

Thanks CbT. That is the much more detailed version of what I was thinking.

 

[TT33]

So far we've had 7 deaths in Australia from 1715 cases. 7. In 2 months.
All of which were over 77 years of age. That's old.
That may change but on the face of it that really doesn't look that bad.

So many people lost their jobs today & the market is in free fall. This with no end in sight.
People may toe the line for a while but some stage people are going to rebel against current measures if this continues is my prediction.

I tried explaining to my 15 year old son that he can't catch up with his mates on holidays tonight..
Ended in a massive argument. I found myself sympathising with him. I really did.
Right now this is no way to live & it's having a profound impact on society.

Old people are susceptible but they've already lived a great life it must be said. Yes it's very sad that they may pass away.
My parents included but at the expense of ruining everyone elses? It's going to be a hard sell over the long term..

Sorry notso Oldie, but that's a very selfish attitude. "They've had a great life anyway" A hell of a lot of over 65s are doing great things in our society, things that contribute to yours & your 15 yr old sons quality of life.
Obviously your having trouble explaining things to him about the benefit to him of social distancing etc. Maybe you should try explaining that you may get this disease & die as may his Mum, it's not guaranteed that only over 65s are the ones that are at risk. ( believe me I hope you don't get it)
I'm having a similar (but opposite) conversation with my 15 yr old Grandson. He's extremely worried about his Nan his 6 month old sister & me, being affected by this virus. What happens to him if we're no longer there to care for him & her. I hate to think. It makes my blood run cold to imagine them being thrown into the social services arena.
Believe me our situation is very common, there are many many Grandparents looking after their Grandkids. If theyr'e taken out of the equation the cost to society as a whole would be catastrophic. In more ways than one.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Sorry notso Oldie, but that's a very selfish attitude. "They've had a great life anyway" A hell of a lot of over 65s are doing great things in our society, things that contribute to yours & your 15 yr old sons quality of life.
Obviously your having trouble explaining things to him about the benefit to him of social distancing etc. Maybe you should try explaining that you may get this disease & die as may his Mum, it's not guaranteed that only over 65s are the ones that are at risk. ( believe me I hope you don't get it)
I'm having a similar (but opposite) conversation with my 15 yr old Grandson. He's extremely worried about his Nan his 6 month old sister & me, being affected by this virus. What happens to him if we're no longer there to care for him & her. I hate to think. It makes my blood run cold to imagine them being thrown into the social services arena.
Believe me our situation is very common, there are many many Grandparents looking after their Grandkids. If theyr'e taken out of the equation the cost to society as a whole would be catastrophic. In more ways than one.

All valid points TT!

 

[eZyT]

I had 2 interactions with my family yesterday, up and down the generations.

I'd been to town and caught a touch of the panics. So I texted my dad in Vic on impulse and said

if you or mum get crook, I'll drive through the night. where is the best small town to cross the Murray? Ive got a set of vic plates I can screw on the ute and I'll have a canoe strapped on in case I have to paddle the rio grande

and dad goes

Victoria not closed, take the Pacific Highway.

made me laugh

the 2nd serious interaction was with my 16yo.

The world has changed son. The honeymoon is over. The days of doing what we want, when we want to are over to a degree. Your gonna stay home, in a school routine. you get up at 8. and do home footy training on footy training nights. and you need to ask permission to go in the fridge. were on rations. you gotta step up to the plate and do your jobs properly. If you don't shut the chooks in, like most nights, and a fox eats 'em, were outta eggs. get it?

yeah sweet, he goes, while he swings the fridge open and starts to construct an enormous ham and cheese sandwich with a fortnights supply of ham and cheese

made me laugh again. 16 year old brains work very different to ours.

so I got the drill out and put a hasp and paddlock on the fridge.

Hard times are on us brothers and sisters, but this is part of life. we've had 30 years on easy street. who knows how long and how tough this will be? might be a year, might be 15. But we'll be right. A roof over your head and half a bed, is all you need my granddad used to say all the time.

find a routine for yourself to find peace and stay calm. I do a bit of gardening and pour me and mrs EZ an austere measure of rum. we give thanks for the good in the world and try make each other laugh.

 

[TT33]

Just as a pointer about %s of risk etc.
The authorities are saying that this or that age group are more at risk & so on. Even if there is a 1 in 100 risk, there is still a risk, someone will be the 1, it could be anyone.
E.G. My brother was diagnosed with throat cancer a few years back. The treatment consisted of chemo & radiation. The Dr said to him that the radiation had a 1 in 100 chance of damaging his hearing. Guess who was the 1 that was affected, he is free of the cancer but his hearing is not so good.
One of my Brothers in Law had the same cancer a few years later, had the same treatment & had no after effects.

 

[tigerlove]

So Covid19 is a coronavirus, as is many common colds.
And I, along with everybody else, have had colds before. Developed antibodies etc. Then become sick to a variant/mutation next time. The bugger colds just keep banging around the world.

Maybe with this Covid19 the 1st exposure may stop a person being a carrier. Maybe. But its likely that the specific coronavirus will have mutated and so that person will spread it in later exposures.
Its a dangerous guess that there will be herd immunity

It's almost guaranteed that you can only be exposed once from what I've read from experts. The virus would need to mutate to become viral again. That's certainly possible in future years. The key in future will be that there is a vaccine to prevent rampant exposure and protect the most vulnerable. I'm pretty sure the H1N1 has been rolled into the yearly flu vaccine.

 

[Baloo]

There is still no vaccine for SARS nor H1N1.

You are most likely to get less deadly strains

 

[tigerlove]

Don't profess to have the answers just shared the convo.
Young people are going to be the hardest sell because they see this as no affecting them because they are no chance to get sick from it. This is where it differs from another pandemic like the Spanish Flu.
Hence the scenes at Bondi Beach.
Telling them it's going to save people 77 & up is not easy.

Why this misconception? Yes it affects older people the most but in China it killed 3.6%% of 60-70 year olds and 1.3% of 50-60 year olds. Not sure how old you are Oldie but when I explained to my daughters that if it went rampant and I ended up with it that I had a 13 in 100 chance of dying - and much higher of getting seriously ill - it wasn't difficult for them to comprehend. We have to stop with the mindset that it is just very old people who die.

 

[tigerlove]

There is still no vaccine for SARS nor H1N1.

You are most likely to get less deadly strains

Incorrect as I've just found out. H1N1 is a component of the trivalent and quadrivalent influenza vaccines. SARS was close to a vaccine but infections dropped to minimal quantities so money to produce one disappeared.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Why this misconception? Yes it affects older people the most but in China it killed 3.6%% of 60-70 year olds and 1.3% of 50-60 year olds. Not sure how old you are Oldie but when I explained to my daughters that if it went rampant and I ended up with it that I had a 13 in 100 chance of dying - and much higher of getting seriously ill - it wasn't difficult for them to comprehend. We have to stop with the mindset that it is just very old people who die.

I wouldn't trust any data that comes out of China.

The numbers out of Italy make for more interesting & reliable reading.
Average age for death is 79.5 & nearly all of them were fighting another illness.
As of last week only 17 people under 50 years of age had died from it.

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[craig]

It was kinda duscussed previously by Lee and TOO - but why aren't governments implementing measures to completely isolate the elderly and health compromised until a vaccine is developed and let the rest go on as usual? The impact of total shut down is gonna be enormous.

Because just maybe they want the financial system to crash and Covid19 might just be the boogie man smokescreen to allow it to happen.

World financial reset might be on the way well that's what some in that world of things have been saying for some time.

Maybe Covid 19 is the Black Swan event utilised to send it all crashing down who knows. I certainly don't.

 

[TigerForce]

I wouldn't trust any data that comes out of China.

The numbers out of Italy make for more interesting & reliable reading.
Average age for death is 79.5 & nearly all of them were fighting another illness.
As of last week only 17 people under 50 years of age had died from it.

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.

www.bloomberg.com

Very interesting reading.

 

[tigerlove]

I wouldn't trust any data that comes out of China.

The numbers out of Italy make for more interesting & reliable reading.
Average age for death is 79.5 & nearly all of them were fighting another illness.
As of last week only 17 people under 50 years of age had died from it.

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.

www.bloomberg.com

You do realise what other illnesses includes don't you? It includes hypertension (6 million Australians), heart disease (1.2mill), diabetes (1.7mill), smoking illnesses (2.5mill smoke). There is no reason to doubt the Chinese figures. Italy is very old country thus the higher average age. They also stopped helping older people due to overrun hospitals. The fact is the more people who will get it the more will die regardless of age group. More information will come out on age-based deaths in time but I'm not taking any risks and either are my children and that example of China's figures is how I explained to my children how important it is to isolate.

 

[kiwitiger]

I wouldn't trust any data that comes out of China.

The numbers out of Italy make for more interesting & reliable reading.
Average age for death is 79.5 & nearly all of them were fighting another illness.
As of last week only 17 people under 50 years of age had died from it.

99% of Those Who Died From Virus Had Other Illness, Italy Says

More than 99% of Italy’s coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions, according to a study by the country’s national health authority.

www.bloomberg.com

That article if accurate is provides comfort to a lot of us ,

But still , I have plenty of compassion and concerns for those that fit into the risky area