My simple rule of thumb for cases doubling every 11 days is ~x7 a month until the virus starts running into a lot of vaccinated or infected people in the groups of people that contact a lot. So 2100 for Vic at start of November and 50k for nsw.
I’d be guessing at what caseload it starts to turn. US peaked at 300k a days so maybe 8k a day for NSW is peak just as rough pro rata on population. Hopefully it isn’t so grim amd many of those who get infected are protected.
Was the US peak before or after Delta?