Coronavirus | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Coronavirus

My simple rule of thumb for cases doubling every 11 days is ~x7 a month until the virus starts running into a lot of vaccinated or infected people in the groups of people that contact a lot. So 2100 for Vic at start of November and 50k for nsw.

I’d be guessing at what caseload it starts to turn. US peaked at 300k a days so maybe 8k a day for NSW is peak just as rough pro rata on population. Hopefully it isn’t so grim amd many of those who get infected are protected.

Was the US peak before or after Delta?
 
176 cases ...we ate off to the races now (but I was thinking when we had a few days in 50s we were on the right trajectory so hope I wrong again)
Just saw that and was wondering if the protests too might be a recent factor. Unsure how to prove. Maybe someone here knows.

Speaking to a person yesterday, one of his friends was told to isolate & get tested (i think) as he had gone to one of the Coles that was exposed. Was good to see the QR code worked as he received a message due to him scanning in and was actually there during the time infected person was there.
 
Raf Epstein never misses with the number and he is tipping around 170 today!! 170. It's so heavy.

We have to be getting to the point were LGA's are treated differently. Things aren't working. We are a month behind NSW and supposedly locked down earlier.

What ever we are doing, it's not working.

Victorians have given up. It really is that simple. There are no solutions anymore except to get the vaccines up and stay locked down to keep numbers as low as possible until we get vaccines up.

We all just need to grit our teeth and come to terms with the fact that we will be locked down til November at the earliest.
 
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Our under vaccinated country is heading into a very precarious situation.
just read 500K letters being sent to unvaccinated people by Feds to older age groups not to wait for Pfzr and AZ is available for them
 
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Does anyone have a credible source on how much children under 12 are affected by the current Delta variant?
As yet we don't have a vaccine for this age bracket.
I would hope any National Cabinet policy has taken this into account with regards to 70%-80% targets we keep hearing about.

I fear Delta or a mutation is going to find a way to seriously affect young children at some point. Don't worry our ATAGI will approve any vaccination 6 months after the rest of the world
 
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176 cases ...we ate off to the races now (but I was thinking when we had a few days in 50s we were on the right trajectory so hope I wrong again)
Would like to hear Andrews' and Suttons' thoughts on why our numbers are going the opposite way of what we thought 5 weeks into a hard lockdown. For all the justified criticism of Gladys we are tracking worse than NSW at the same stage and they had a mickey mouse lockdown initially compared to ours. This is extremely disappointing. I have no doubt the lack of punitive measures for deliberate breaches are a factor. People obviously don't give a *smile*; they know if the breach the rules all they have to do is fess up and there will be no consequences. After 5 weeks this approach clearly has not worked in this outbreak.

Just like regional Victoria will soon enjoy some freedoms not available to Melburnians then maybe vaccinated people in some relatively COVID free parts of Melbourne should be allowed additional licence as well. I don't know; maybe that's not feasible? All I know is that it is extremely frustrating for the vast majority of people who abide by the lockdown rules to sit here and watch the situation get worse, not better, on a daily basis. All because of selfish *smile* arseholes who refuse to do the right thing.
 
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Victorians have given up. It really is that simple. There are no solutions anymore except to get the vaccines up and stay locked down to keep numbers as low as possible until we get vaccines up.

We all just need to grit our teeth and come to terms with the fact that we will be locked down til November at the earliest.
That's *smile*. But you're probably right.
 
Our under vaccinated country is heading into a very precarious situation.
Yep the horse has bolted now. We are months behind where we should be. Slomo will pay at the election next year but it's little consolation.

That said QLD and SA have dealt successfully with Delta outbreaks. The people in those states are obviously better at following regulations than those in NSW and particularly Victorians.

Very disappointing Victoria. I think the authorities made the right call to lock down when they did but obviously too many people have ignored the regulations and here we are.
 
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The Age editorial has given Dan a warning shot.
And like I have been saying on here many times (with little support) they are sick of the secrecy, lack of informative data, lectures and hectoring.
 
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I fear Delta or a mutation is going to find a way to seriously affect young children at some point. Don't worry our ATAGI will approve any vaccination 6 months after the rest of the world
Heard on the ABC this morning that no country in the world has approved any vaccine for children under 12 years of age. You'd think that would leave the global population still very exposed?
 
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The Age editorial has given Dan a warning shot.
And like I have been saying on here many times (with little support) they are sick of the secrecy, lack of informative data, lectures and hectoring.
Dan's done much right but he's also got a few things wrong; in a big way. He's reversal of the playground ban smacks of a poll induced turnaround.
 
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Yep the horse has bolted now. We are months behind where we should be. Slomo will pay at the election next year but it's little consolation.

That said QLD and SA have dealt successfully with Delta outbreaks. The people in those states are obviously better at following regulations than those in NSW and particularly Victorians.

Very disappointing Victoria. I think the authorities made the right call to lock down when they did but obviously too many people have ignored the regulations and here we are.
Maybe a lot of the rules don't work under Delta?
Maybe Andrews overriding CHO advice on construction sites was a factor. Somehow working on a state infrastructure project at 100% is safe but not more than 25% on a block of flats.
The thinking is flawed, the same voices are being listened to.
 
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I'm sure people saw those protests 2 weeks ago where thousands were doing the wrong thing?
Without excusing that abhorrent behaviour, people were doing the wrong thing well before then. Like the teacher from Al-Taqwa and her husband who decided it was a great idea to visit their cousins whilst household visits were still banned and kicked the whole thing off again.
 
Evidence of "large" swathes? And why this time one month in and not 3 months in last year?

The protests, the evidence of many on here and elsewhere about how many are ignoring restrictions. As for why not last year its already been said by others but people are sick of it and have given up.
 
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Dan's done much right but he's also got a few things wrong; in a big way. He's reversal of the playground ban smacks of a poll induced turnaround.
maybe cause it didn't make sense to start with and no data to support it. The harder he goes the more defiant people will become. Yes people used parks / playgrounds as DeFacto meeting places but now people are just going to peoples houses instead. The traffic and new cars at houses in my street has increased significantly. It was much safer meeting outdoors than in. And they are wondering why numbers increasing
 
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