Coronavirus

[Sintiger]

R is still about 1.2

Unless that is less than 1 the numbers go up, as certain as night follows day

Only two options, lockdown and vaccinations. Or a 3rd which is let it rip

 

[Ian4]

Ian - sorry but you like many in Australia have unrealistic views of what a post Covid world will be.

The UK is at 78.7% double dosed (over 16's) but ultimately our future is with an expected number in hospitals and a number that unfortunately die. I agree that the Doherty report is a dud and is being used as a shield by Gladys but the reality is we either stay locked down, or get vaccinations into peoples arms and then we need to live with it.

Yes this will result in deaths (I would expect around 35-40 / day in Australia based on the numbers the UK are showing. This is the future. Covid is going nowhere and we either lock ourselves up forever, or we work towards 80% (Gladys needs to stop all this talk of 70%) and then ensure our hospital capacity is built up enough to sustain the volume that overseas countries are showing us we will need to be at.

If you take the UK as an example, they are now essentially fully open and holding at around 7000 patients in hospital, far below their peak of nearly 40k (which is where hospitals will be completely out of control). 7000 in the UK would be something like 2500 across all of Australia. We currently have something like 1000 in hospital in NSW alone, so we know our hospitals system (when you factor in the whole of Australia) should be able to cope with this level of volume.

Nobody is saying it will be easy, and ideally as a country we could have crept upto 80% vaccination rates whilst keeping at Covid zero, but it appears that that is no longer going to be possible, so we have to look to the future. Unfortunately that will lead to deaths, but if we can approach 80% (or hopefully get over 80% - the UK is at 88.4% first dose so are aiming for 90%+) then we will hopefully be able to protect the healthcare system from those big influxes of patients that we have seen at times overseas over the last 18 months.

Good post and i do agree with a lot of it. But i strongly dispute the hospital numbers, especially when it comes to ICU and respirators. ICU capacity will need to be doubled from around 2,000 nationwide to about 4,000, not to mention thousands more doctors and nurses.

The Grattan Institute states that we will reach ICU capacity shortly after we hit 12,000 daily cases. The Doherty report is suggesting we will hit at least 55,000 cases per day and 400,000 per week.

i mean seriously... these numbers are frightening and unsustainable. The Doherty report modelling is suggesting we will get much more numbers than the UK is currently getting, which will mean more deaths. Not 35-40 per day, but potentially 150-200.

We should also forget about quoting percentages of vaccinated "amongst the eligible groups". This is bollocks. We need to look at vaccinations as a proportion of total population.

At the moment we have 27.91% of the total population vaccinated, this is 34.77% of people 16+ and we are ranked 35 of 38 members of the OECD (pathetic).

We need to get the first number up to at least 70% and probably 80%. This is not out of the realms of possibility, our vaccination rates for MMR and Polio are over 90% of the whole population.

THIS FFS!!!!!

 

[mrposhman]

Good post and i do agree with a lot of it. But i strongly dispute the hospital numbers, especially when it comes to ICU and respirators. ICU capacity will need to be doubled from around 2,000 nationwide to about 4,000, not to mention thousands more doctors and nurses.

The Grattan Institute states that we will reach ICU capacity shortly after we hit 12,000 daily cases. The Doherty report is suggesting we will hit at least 55,000 cases per day and 400,000 per week.

i mean seriously... these numbers are frightening and unsustainable. The Doherty report modelling is suggesting we will get much more numbers than the UK is currently getting, which will mean more deaths. Not 35-40 per day, but possibly 150-200.



THIS FFS!!!!!

Why would you be believing the Doherty report and not what is actually happening overseas? I'd think seeing what is actually occurring is far more likely than some calculated figure on a spreadsheet.

55k cases per day? Why would Australia get nearly double the amount that the UK are getting (67m population) if we had similar vaccination numbers? It makes no sense which is why the report is essentially worthless.

Canada is another that has vaccinations around about 70%, and their population of 40m are getting about 3,000 cases per day, so again, why would Australia somehow muster up 55k??

Interestingly from Canada, they have around 1000 in hospital BUT only 1% of those were fully vaccinated, yes thats 10 of those 1000 are those that are fully vaccinated. Another example of why the higher the vaccination rate, the lower the impact on the healthcare system.

Yes - the Doherty numbers are frightening BUT they do not match with any overseas data that we see, so where did they get this number from? it seems like it will scare people into remaining locked down when the data doesn't appear to be even backed by any science.

 

[MD Jazz]

Good post and i do agree with a lot of it. But i strongly dispute the hospital numbers, especially when it comes to ICU and respirators. ICU capacity will need to be doubled from around 2,000 nationwide to about 4,000, not to mention thousands more doctors and nurses.

The Grattan Institute states that we will reach ICU capacity shortly after we hit 12,000 daily cases. The Doherty report is suggesting we will hit at least 55,000 cases per day and 400,000 per week.

i mean seriously... these numbers are frightening and unsustainable. The Doherty report modelling is suggesting we will get much more numbers than the UK is currently getting, which will mean more deaths. Not 35-40 per day, but potentially 150-200.

What are those numbers based on?
The UK would be a much more indoor lifestyle than Aus? We are coming into summer.
We need to educate people about what are the biggest risk scenarios for transmission.
We need to get kids vaccinated.
We need a plan, which essentially means we need a new leader.

 

[caesar]

Its actually moving faster than NSW at this point. 369 more cases at day 28.

If we were testing anywhere as much NSW numbers VIC numbers would be even higher, 170,000 tests for NSW yesterday

 

[MD Jazz]

Why would you be believing the Doherty report and not what is actually happening overseas? I'd think seeing what is actually occurring is far more likely than some calculated figure on a spreadsheet.

55k cases per day? Why would Australia get nearly double the amount that the UK are getting (67m population) if we had similar vaccination numbers? It makes no sense which is why the report is essentially worthless.

Canada is another that has vaccinations around about 70%, and their population of 40m are getting about 3,000 cases per day, so again, why would Australia somehow muster up 55k??

Interestingly from Canada, they have around 1000 in hospital BUT only 1% of those were fully vaccinated, yes thats 10 of those 1000 are those that are fully vaccinated. Another example of why the higher the vaccination rate, the lower the impact on the healthcare system.

Yes - the Doherty numbers are frightening BUT they do not match with any overseas data that we see, so where did they get this number from? it seems like it will scare people into remaining locked down when the data doesn't appear to be even backed by any science.

Nice logical post. We have a great opportunity to use the OS experience to our advantage. We need discussion and strategy.

 

[mrposhman]

According to the COVIDBaseAU twitter account, only 42k doses yesterday in VIC. NSW 149k. Seems like doses are trending down in VIC?

How many of the 149k in NSW were done through state based hubs? We did I think 34k yesterday through state based hubs. Just wondering if the majority of the difference is due to GP vaccinations which the feds should be increasing but as always seem to only be focused on Sydney.

 

[mrposhman]

If we were testing anywhere as much NSW numbers VIC numbers would be even higher, 170,000 tests for NSW yesterday

Yes and no. I wonder how many of their tests are done with people who are asymptomatic and are mandatory tests? I wonder what the positive test rates are for mandatory tests compared to optional tests (when people have symptoms)

 

[Redford]

Did Andrews say deeper lockdown restrictions won’t be lifted until 70% of the state has a first dose - likely to be 23 September ? How does he get to that date ?

We did appx 700,000 doses as a first dose for the month of August. We’re 56% first dose right now.

How do we get to 70% in 3 weeks ?? Did he mean October ? Although suppose if we have 3.8m to vaccinate first dose that’d probably work out to be right.

What would he look to lift and for whom and how ?

 

[Ian4]

Why would you be believing the Doherty report and not what is actually happening overseas? I'd think seeing what is actually occurring is far more likely than some calculated figure on a spreadsheet.

55k cases per day? Why would Australia get nearly double the amount that the UK are getting (67m population) if we had similar vaccination numbers? It makes no sense which is why the report is essentially worthless.

Canada is another that has vaccinations around about 70%, and their population of 40m are getting about 3,000 cases per day, so again, why would Australia somehow muster up 55k??

Interestingly from Canada, they have around 1000 in hospital BUT only 1% of those were fully vaccinated, yes thats 10 of those 1000 are those that are fully vaccinated. Another example of why the higher the vaccination rate, the lower the impact on the healthcare system.

Yes - the Doherty numbers are frightening BUT they do not match with any overseas data that we see, so where did they get this number from? it seems like it will scare people into remaining locked down when the data doesn't appear to be even backed by any science.

OK, lets imagine the Doherty report modelling regarding case numbers are wrong (and we all hope they are). Do you dispute the hospital and ICU numbers?

 

[mrposhman]

Did Andrews say deeper lockdown restrictions won’t be lifted until 70% of the state has a first dose - likely to be 23 September ? How does he get to that date ?

We did appx 700,000 doses as a first dose for the month of August. We’re 56% first dose right now.

How do we get to 70% in 3 weeks ?? Did he mean October ?

This site says we will hit it on 24th September for a single dose. I suspect our vaccine doses will increase over the next couple of weeks.

3,042,801 Coronavirus Cases and 1,432 Active in Victoria - COVID Live

Live tracking of coronavirus cases, active, tests, deaths, ICU, hospitalisations and vaccinations in Victoria

covidlive.com.au

 

[mrposhman]

OK, lets imagine the Doherty report modelling regarding case numbers are wrong (and we all hope they are). Do you dispute the hospital and ICU numbers?

What hospitalisation / ICU numbers are they forecasting?

 

[Rancey18]

How many of the 149k in NSW were done through state based hubs? We did I think 34k yesterday through state based hubs. Just wondering if the majority of the difference is due to GP vaccinations which the feds should be increasing but as always seem to only be focused on Sydney.

COVIDLive website doesnt have a breakdown yet, but for yesterday in NSW when they had 148k doses the breakdown was about 50/50 between doses administered at Hubs and at GPs (so significantly higher than VIC). I cant find any information regarding the breakdown of Pfizer jabs but you'd have to think that their hubs must have a lot more of Pfizer to be doing this...

 

[Redford]

In other words, not too much changing until 23 September - and only if we hit 70% first dose. Naturally enough, doing what we should have done at a federal level all along, and pleading for people to take up the AZ option.

 

[mrposhman]

COVIDLive website doesnt have a breakdown yet, but for yesterday in NSW when they had 148k doses the breakdown was about 50/50 between doses administered at Hubs and at GPs (so significantly higher than VIC). I cant find any information regarding the breakdown of Pfizer jabs but you'd have to think that their hubs must have a lot more of Pfizer to be doing this...

That would suggest therefore that they are doing more in hubs but a lot more in GP's. Working back to our numbers, we are maybe doing about 10k vaccinations per day in GP's whereas NSW are doing closer to 75k. I'd love to see the breakdown of how many of their 75k are Pfizer being as our GP's in VIC don't have access to Pfizer yet.

 

[Rancey18]

That would suggest therefore that they are doing more in hubs but a lot more in GP's. Working back to our numbers, we are maybe doing about 10k vaccinations per day in GP's whereas NSW are doing closer to 75k. I'd love to see the breakdown of how many of their 75k are Pfizer being as our GP's in VIC don't have access to Pfizer yet.

Yep there is a massive disparity between what NSW are doing and what VIC (and even the other states) are managing to do at the moment - noting that we seem to be at capacity booking wise for Pfizer doses in VIC for the foreseeable future.

 

[jb03]

Good post and i do agree with a lot of it. But i strongly dispute the hospital numbers, especially when it comes to ICU and respirators. ICU capacity will need to be doubled from around 2,000 nationwide to about 4,000, not to mention thousands more doctors and nurses.

The Grattan Institute states that we will reach ICU capacity shortly after we hit 12,000 daily cases. The Doherty report is suggesting we will hit at least 55,000 cases per day and 400,000 per week.

i mean seriously... these numbers are frightening and unsustainable. The Doherty report modelling is suggesting we will get much more numbers than the UK is currently getting, which will mean more deaths. Not 35-40 per day, but potentially 150-200.



THIS FFS!!!!!

We've established the Doherty modelling is a crock You posted a good link showing why it is a crock so no-one should ever be referencing it again.

 

[Redford]

Listening to the press conference, the Murdoch media are obsessed with playgrounds (and picnics of course). Oh, and why can’t Victoria deviate from the National Cabinet plan.

 

[TigerForce]

Great plan Dan.

 

[22nd Man]

What are those numbers based on?
The UK would be a much more indoor lifestyle than Aus? We are coming into summer.
We need to educate people about what are the biggest risk scenarios for transmission.
We need to get kids vaccinated.
We need a plan, which essentially means we need a new leader.

this to me has been overlooked. I think I know but I am happy tp be updated... I could be innocently increasing my risk to myself or others and would be happy to change that behaviour. Equally there are some things which might have been found to be irrelevant to transmission.

The main message is "people are doing the wrong thing" .... lets update and reinforce the "right thing"

All we hear about are locations .... so were the cases workmates / customers/ delivery people ... was it transmitted in the lunchroom, office, factory floor, at illegal parties.

One example ... 1.5m distance.. Now that came in Day ONE. Who did the calculations then and why does it still hold for Delta? Why not 2m, or 3m? or 1m?