Coronavirus

[Ian4]

Why do you say COVID zero is the only option? Countries in Europe and the USA have opened up with higher vaccination rates; why can't we do the same? COVID zero is dead in Victoria and especially NSW. We are 5 weeks into a hard lockdown and our numbers are going up, not down.

Do you think we should stay locked down like this forever?

and the UK 7 day average death rate is 115 at 64% fully vaccinated. We are heading for these numbers (maybe more because our hospitals are unlikely to have the capacity to handle these numbers) unless we change our target to at least 80% (of all ages) fully vaccinated.

i hate lockdown as much as anyone, but to repeat... the Doherty Report is a dud. There is a reason why WA and QLD won’t support it. Nor should VIC.

 

[Ridley]

Heaps of cases and deaths in England but they don't seem to care. Florida has an anti-mask Governor so can't imagine they would be travelling too well.

You can't compare the UK and Florida. The clown in Florida is Trump-lite and doesn't seem to give a *smile*. A better comparison would be somewhere like New York.

I think the last I saw was the UK was only in the 60s in percentage terms of fully vaccinated. That's too low. We should probably be aiming higher; maybe 80% of the entire population including all children. The point is that has gotta happen at some stage. We can't live perpetually locked down like this waiting for a covid zero pipe dream. Vaccination is the only way out; it's just a matter of what the number should be.

 

[Ridley]

and the UK 7 day average death rate is 115 at 64% fully vaccinated. We are heading for these numbers (maybe more because our hospitals are unlikely to have the capacity to handle these numbers) unless we change our target to at least 80% (of all ages) fully vaccinated.

i hate lockdown as much as anyone, but to repeat... the Doherty Report is a dud. There is a reason why WA and QLD won’t support it. Nor should VIC.

Yeah agree. I just posted that I think the UK number is too low (assume it is 64% of entire population not just age 16 plus?).

Maybe 80% of the entire Australian population is the right number before we open up. But COVID zero is a pipe dream for Victoria and NSW now; it's just not gonna happen. We can't be sitting here at this time next year still in lockdown because we haven't achieved COVID zero.

 

[Redford]

This is the uncertain and dangerous crossroads that we were always heading into as a country. Always. It was patently obvious back in March. We’re an unvaccinated country (still only 35% fully vaccinated) desperately trying to make up lost ground because it’s had to go to the well too many times with lockdowns as it’s only means of defence - again, because we’ve been so under vaccinated.

We’ve potentially got months and months of unnecessary pain ahead of us all due to a completely mis managed vaccination program. It’s as simple as that. The UK did 31 million doses in its first 3 months of full vax access. We did 4.3 million in our first 3 months with a production plant right in our own back yard.

Look to Canberra.

 

[rocsta75]

This is a real concern given that we have had a much harder lockdown from early on; in comparison to NSW. Just shows that many in the community have given up and are ignoring the lockdown.

I think it more where it started. NSW was Bondi and Hoxton Park and then spread to the west. Vic started in the North and West. Unfortunately, these communities move around a lot, generally don't work from home, and historically have not followed rules. Look at the similarities with NSW and VIC that the outbreaks are out of control in the west which both have very similar communities. Furthermore, we never got on top of lockdown 5. There were more cases in the community than we knew.

We are lucky however the Al Taqwa teacher tested as it could have bubbled away for a few more days/weeks before another case was identiifed.

 

[Jason King]

Long-Covid symptoms ‘worse than cancer’s effects’

The horrific and lasting effects of Covid-19 on people – asymptomatic or not – has been published in a new study, as scientists and health experts learn more about the long-term toll the virus can take.

www.news.com.au

This is what we are leaving the kids under 12 to deal with if we re-open when Gladys Binchicken says so.

 

[Ridley]

We are lucky however the Al Taqwa teacher tested as it could have bubbled away for a few more days/weeks before another case was identiifed.

We were also unlucky that she decided to breach the regulations and make family visits when they were still banned.

 

[mrposhman]

and the UK 7 day average death rate is 115 at 64% fully vaccinated. We are heading for these numbers (maybe more because our hospitals are unlikely to have the capacity to handle these numbers) unless we change our target to at least 80% (of all ages) fully vaccinated.

i hate lockdown as much as anyone, but to repeat... the Doherty Report is a dud. There is a reason why WA and QLD won’t support it. Nor should VIC.

Ian - sorry but you like many in Australia have unrealistic views of what a post Covid world will be.

The UK is at 78.7% double dosed (over 16's) but ultimately our future is with an expected number in hospitals and a number that unfortunately die. I agree that the Doherty report is a dud and is being used as a shield by Gladys but the reality is we either stay locked down, or get vaccinations into peoples arms and then we need to live with it.

Yes this will result in deaths (I would expect around 35-40 / day in Australia based on the numbers the UK are showing. This is the future. Covid is going nowhere and we either lock ourselves up forever, or we work towards 80% (Gladys needs to stop all this talk of 70%) and then ensure our hospital capacity is built up enough to sustain the volume that overseas countries are showing us we will need to be at.

If you take the UK as an example, they are now essentially fully open and holding at around 7000 patients in hospital, far below their peak of nearly 40k (which is where hospitals will be completely out of control). 7000 in the UK would be something like 2500 across all of Australia. We currently have something like 1000 in hospital in NSW alone, so we know our hospitals system (when you factor in the whole of Australia) should be able to cope with this level of volume.

Nobody is saying it will be easy, and ideally as a country we could have crept upto 80% vaccination rates whilst keeping at Covid zero, but it appears that that is no longer going to be possible, so we have to look to the future. Unfortunately that will lead to deaths, but if we can approach 80% (or hopefully get over 80% - the UK is at 88.4% first dose so are aiming for 90%+) then we will hopefully be able to protect the healthcare system from those big influxes of patients that we have seen at times overseas over the last 18 months.

 

[Rancey18]

According to the COVIDBaseAU twitter account, only 42k doses yesterday in VIC. NSW 149k. Seems like doses are trending down in VIC?

 

[Bunnerz]

At the end of the day, Vic and NSW have failed.
We have failed.

We were told in Jan 2020, lockdowns were needed to prevent hospitals getting overwhelmed and death.

We didnt adhere properly to lockdowns and we will now not get to zero.

Next year hospitals will be overwhelmed and people will die.

 

[Redford]

According to the COVIDBaseAU twitter account, only 42k doses yesterday in VIC. NSW 149k. Seems like doses are trending down in VIC?

That sounds like Monday’s number ?

 

[AngryAnt]

The only option is vaccinate like hell now. Well, this was always the only medium/long term option anyway, lockdowns and quarantine were never going to work beyond the short term.

Seems like the pollies are waking to what most of us knew all along.

 

[mrposhman]

At the end of the day, Vic and NSW have failed.
We have failed.

We were told in Jan 2020, lockdowns were needed to prevent hospitals getting overwhelmed and death.

We didnt adhere properly to lockdowns and we will now not get to zero.

Next year hospitals will be overwhelmed and people will die.

People will definitely die when we open up.

Why do you think hospitals will be overwhelmed?

You realise Covid zero had a shelf life right? We were never going to be able to hold that into perpetuity.

 

[TrialByVideo]

Dunno if I'm right here but I think NYC is around 60% fully vaccinated?
I'm watching the US open. ... full crowd, no mask rule, proof of at least 1dose to enter.... which apparently was only instigated last Friday.
Interesting.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Gladys is a complete *smile*. The End.

 

[Rancey18]

That sounds like Monday’s number ?

Not sure - COVIDLive website has our previous two days at 40k doses each as well, so this would be the third day in a row of doses around 40k.

Ill wait to see what the COVIDLive website says (usually takes until later in the day to be updated but it is usually consistent with this other Twitter account).

 

[MD Jazz]

and the UK 7 day average death rate is 115 at 64% fully vaccinated. We are heading for these numbers (maybe more because our hospitals are unlikely to have the capacity to handle these numbers) unless we change our target to at least 80% (of all ages) fully vaccinated.

i hate lockdown as much as anyone, but to repeat... the Doherty Report is a dud. There is a reason why WA and QLD won’t support it. Nor should VIC.

How many fully vaxed people have died?

Has everyone had an opportunity to be vaxed?

We are in a position to take adv of other countries experimentation. We need to be looking at OS results and devising a strategy.

 

[pete and tys]

Double vaccinated people need to be let out now.
That will make it more bearable and strongly encourage others to get vaccinated asap.
AZ needs to be pushed hard by health authorities for everyone..we have plenty.
Vic could be 80 % fully vaccinated in a month if AZ were accepted and hubs flat out. Govt not pro active enough.
Failure of governance in Australia.

 

[DavidSSS]

What we need to see, and it is not happening yet, is the case numbers and the hospitalisation numbers not following the same path. The vaccines prevent severe illness but this will only happen with higher rates of vaccination. When we see that the case numbers are rising by a higher proportion than the hospitalisations then we can look at opening up.

We should also forget about quoting percentages of vaccinated "amongst the eligible groups". This is bollocks. We need to look at vaccinations as a proportion of total population.

At the moment we have 27.91% of the total population vaccinated, this is 34.77% of people 16+ and we are ranked 35 of 38 members of the OECD (pathetic).

We need to get the first number up to at least 70% and probably 80%. This is not out of the realms of possibility, our vaccination rates for MMR and Polio are over 90% of the whole population.

The other thing we need to do is to somehow convince the morons out there who think it is safer to take a parasite treatment for horses than a vaccine designed for humans to actually go for the vaccine designed for humans.

DS

 

[Bunnerz]

Victorias 9pm curfew which was going to be ended, will now remain due to todays double figures.