Coronavirus | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
  • IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.

Coronavirus

Imagine if they locked everything down back then and there were only half a dozen new infections a day. They had to wait for a pre-defined point before pulling the trigger (the Ruby Princess positives may have hastened the decision). No idea whether they've got it right, but they've managed well to date.

Australia - first case January 25, 1200 infections
Germany - first case January 27, 22K infections
Italy - first case January 31, 54K infections

I'm hopeful we'll be able to keep the medical load manageable.

My problem with these stats is the unknown factor. How are we going with tests per capita? What is the German ratio, the Italian? We're closer to the U.S. on this score I think, which might mean the numbers are artificially low.
 
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you're allowed to be skeptical, no problems there, there has been some overhype on some aspects sure, but the data does not clearly show that. Not at all.
I can't believe some people are still spreading this clear misinformation.

A lot of people don't understand percentages or exponential growth. Or microbiology. Or vaccines.

Worldwide, this is killing 1 in 25 people who test positive. 1 in 25. The seasonal flu is around 1 in a thousand. Now think proportions of the people that you know.

This 'same as the flu' nonsense is why Bondi Beach happened this week. It's why more people will die. Stop. it.
 
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By the way, seperate argument, but all of this has reinforced to me that we should be teaching maths and science to the end of high school rather than just year 9 or 10. Instead we teach English.

Too many people who like talking and arguing, not enough people who know what they're talking and arguing about.
 
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By the way, seperate argument, but all of this has reinforced to me that we should be teaching maths and science to the end of high school rather than just year 9 or 10. Instead we teach English.

Too many people who like talking and arguing, not enough people who know what they're talking and arguing about.

I would advocate more for general critical thinking as a subject. Understanding how to interrogate statements and dive into reporting to find where the truth lies. How to identify good sources etc. Those who follow STEM subjects get this as a by-product; your opinion on how a chemical reaction progesses has no value. Only the real and testable and predictable facts do. But this needs to be taught to all students. Even, maybe especially, the ones who aren't going to study STEM. One of the problems is that many who enter Education Studies are precisely the ones who didn't study STEM subjects and so they become the teachers. They need this as much as the kids.
 
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After seeing it mentioned on social media I've had a look at the NZ covid-19 site and its fantastic and clear with a 4 stage plan:

As opposed to us:

With unclear advice and no clear plan. Scottyfrommarketing said he didn't even know what stage 2 looked like.
 
Yep no wonder the states are taking matters into their own hands.

the ambiguity index is pretty high at state level also.

Gladys Berechickenlian goes 'Schools WILL remain open, but please don't send your kids'

Now I consider myself a reasonably smart and decisive person, and I have no *smile* idea whether to send my kid to school or not.

I also find the general disparagement of The Bondi 501, as pretty naive and cheap.

1. how did people who wanted to go for a swim at the beach know if they were the 501st person or the 499th to throw down a towel?

2. does the average beach goer know what 4m2 looks like?

3. what size of outdoor area does the 500 restriction apply to? Are there more than 500 champions of industry walking around the CBD of Sydney at any one time?

the culprit was ambiguous, *smile* weak, indecisive policy and messaging from old people in suits, IMO.

the same old people who go 'oh, cruise ship full of sick people,? oh you're right, off you go to the 4 corners of the country'

right or wrong, young people have a view that says '*smile* old people, you never listened to us about housing affordability, job security or climate change, we're going to have a party on the beach'

its too simplistic to just dismiss this as reckless.

the leadership we are experiencing is ad hoc, inconsistent, indecisive and ambiguous,

and then they lecture people when they don't get it.

I don't think decisiveness and consistency is a very big ask from leaders?
 
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One in Ten people infected in Italy are health care workers. The stress they are working under must be incredible.

I can't express how much admiration I have for all health care workers around the world.
 
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Case count excluding China (updated 11:30pm)

269,553 cases
12,047 deaths (4.47%)
9,499 severe (4%)
220,348 mild (82%)
27,659 recovered (10%)
 
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the ambiguity index is pretty high at state level also.

Gladys Berechickenlian goes 'Schools WILL remain open, but please don't send your kids'

Now I consider myself a reasonably smart and decisive person, and I have no ******* idea whether to send my kid to school or not.

I also find the general disparagement of The Bondi 501, as pretty naive and cheap.

1. how did people who wanted to go for a swim at the beach know if they were the 501st person or the 499th to throw down a towel?

2. does the average beach goer know what 4m2 looks like?

3. what size of outdoor area does the 500 restriction apply to? Are there more than 500 champions of industry walking around the CBD of Sydney at any one time?

the culprit was ambiguous, **** weak, indecisive policy and messaging from old people in suits, IMO.

the same old people who go 'oh, cruise ship full of sick people,? oh you're right, off you go to the 4 corners of the country'

right or wrong, young people have a view that says '**** old people, you never listened to us about housing affordability, job security or climate change, we're going to have a party on the beach'

this can't just be dismissed as reckless.

the leadership we are experiencing is ad hoc, inconsistent, indecisive and ambiguous,

and then they lecture people when they don't get it.

I don't think decisiveness and consistency is a very big ask from leaders?

Agree with some of that ezy but disagree on the Bondi situation. That goes to attitude and entitlement. Everyone well knew this situation at that stage. The stance on mass gatherings was well documented; it was why sporting events, concerts etc were either played behind closed doors or called off completely.

What happened at Bondi was the result of those people being stupid or selfish; most likely both.
 
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What happened at Bondi was the result of those people being stupid or selfish; most likely both.

fair enough, but can you see that

the first 499 on the beach were following the rules?

yes, No doubt there would have been some entitled, reckless, fuckheads on the beach.

but also some stressed out young families trying to get a bit of fresh air who were unaware they were part of an illegal gathering, because the messaging is *smile*
 
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Let me guess where politicians want this to go.

Recognise the media has got way out of control on this.
Stop trying to be factual and closing the media down.
Tell the population its going to be even worse than what the media says.
Scare the living crap out of the entire population for something that has still only killed 12000 people (median estimate 37000 flue deaths in USA this season already.)
Put draconian measures in place
When it turns out to be nothing like what the media predicted and certainly nothing like the politicians followed up with, take all the credit for slowing it down.


I will keep on saying this, the data clearly shows that if you are under 30yo this presents less risk than the flu. If you are healthy and under 65 its probably the same as the flu. If you are over 65 and/or have a serious illness, its worse than the flu.

Wash your hands
Cover your cough
Stay home if you are sick
Isolate and care for the aged and infirmed.

Its not the flu.
We already have the flu.
The hospitals are ready for the flu.
Yes there are more people who have the flu and are spreading it than people who have Covid19. Currently.
The concern is that when it reaches the same coverage as the flu, then the hospitals are going to be busy.

There are not many deaths now compared to the flu.
Not many deaths on the roads too. Only 266 dead Victorians in 2019. There are more dead from the flu!
When its preventable we do something to stop sickness and death.

No way California has 300 cases. They have not sufficiently tested and have no idea.
Italy had a massive scare when people started dying early March. It has been in lockdown for nearly 2 weeks, and will probably need longer as people ignored the draconian measures to curb the spread.
That might be the reason for the slowing number of cases.
 
My problem with these stats is the unknown factor. How are we going with tests per capita? What is the German ratio, the Italian? We're closer to the U.S. on this score I think, which might mean the numbers are artificially low.

I don't think our position is comparable to the US. New York state alone has 15K (known) infections.
 
fair enough, but can you see that

the first 499 on the beach were following the rules?

yes, No doubt there would have been some entitled, reckless, fuckheads on the beach.

but also some stressed out young families trying to get a bit of fresh air.

Yeah but I think that is probably semantic. Given the situation people knew the severity and the risk and should have just stayed away whether the number was 50, 100 or 500. That's just common sense (understand it doesn't seem to be that common these days!).

But agree the messaging has been ambivalent and that has not helped.
 
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Agree with some of that ezy but disagree on the Bondi situation. That goes to attitude and entitlement. Everyone well knew this situation at that stage. The stance on mass gatherings was well documented; it was why sporting events, concerts etc were either played behind closed doors or called off completely.

What happened at Bondi was the result of those people being stupid or selfish; most likely both.
I think Exy's point (at least my opinion) is that the govt directive was unrealistic and impractical.
And unenforceable. How could any citizen abide by the advice to keep a crowd at the beach below 500?
Do we want to have a doorbitch at each beach and a queue waiting to get on the sand?

Plus its combined with mixed messages - "shut down mass gatherings but not just yet". Give out a warning with the reminder that everything is fine.
Keep going to the cricket final and the shopping centres but keep off the beach?

To be fair to the Australian government they are not the only ones.
Many European govts have introduced very similar recommendations that havent been understood and so needed to increase the clarity and stricter rules.
Its just that Oz is 2-3 weeks behind, so only have to read the newspapers to find out what needs to be fixed.


Though in the end Riddles, each of those stupid, selfish pr!cks on the beach is an adult who shouldnt need the government to tell them to avoid the beach and other public spaces
 
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One in Ten people infected in Italy are health care workers. The stress they are working under must be incredible.

I can't express how much admiration I have for all health care workers around the world.

Hospitals are full in our area in France (Alsace)
Completely chockers.
Having a heart attack? Come back next week.
This is a problem that could have serious reperconcussion for people here. Same problem that Northern Italy is having.

I saw a GP this week to get prescription for my boy's asthma. The doc was an anxious wreck.
So yes a big thank-you to the health care workers, may they all stay safe
 
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Though in the end Riddles, each of those stupid, selfish pr!cks on the beach is an adult who shouldnt need the government to tell them to avoid the beach and other public spaces

My thoughts exactly TD.
 
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the messaging on schools Sunday night

Morrison - send your kids to school. all the health advice is its safe and kids need education

Andrews - School holidays Start Monday and don't expect to go back.

Berechickenlian - Schools remain open, but don't send your kids.

and this is after THEY ALL HAD A MEETING.

Im pretty confused but I feel for people who live in Albury or Wadonga
 
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