Imagine if they locked everything down back then and there were only half a dozen new infections a day. They had to wait for a pre-defined point before pulling the trigger (the Ruby Princess positives may have hastened the decision). No idea whether they've got it right, but they've managed well to date.
Australia - first case January 25, 1200 infections
Germany - first case January 27, 22K infections
Italy - first case January 31, 54K infections
I'm hopeful we'll be able to keep the medical load manageable.
My problem with these stats is the unknown factor. How are we going with tests per capita? What is the German ratio, the Italian? We're closer to the U.S. on this score I think, which might mean the numbers are artificially low.