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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
Absolutely. This week is critical. Morrison's next address must be a good one. Even if he has to tell horror stories to get compliance.
Ah *smile*. *smile* like this are better off knocked on the head. Or at least having their tongues tied.
PS Bolt is being a stubborn fool about this. He should be put to sleep for a while also.
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You must have missed tonight's address. Still so many mixed messages & little clarity.
You must have missed tonight's address. Still so many mixed messages & little clarity.
Yeah I missed it.
It's pretty simple: if we're smart enough to understand the words "Stay home!", we're a chance to come through this in reasonable shape. If not, well...
I stepped off an international flight on Friday. On arrival there were no thermal cams, no thermometers, no tests. Only 3 questions and a pamphlet. Border Force, customs and duty free staff were not wearing masks. The flight was full of people coming from all around the globe. It was a little bemusing to say the least.
Luckily ScoMo's let the hairdressers stay open as I'm due for a haircut in a fortnight.
Biosecurity Act I think means you can be arrested if you're deemed to be endangering public safety.
I'll have a look tomorrow. We all know Scotty lacks charisma.
The best thing anyone can do to help is not get sick.
This I think has been our biggest failing so far in the fight against COVID-19.
Taiwan is spitting distance from China, they started screening passengers in December.
They have had 153 case and only 2 deaths.
The data is updated continuously, it's not hard to work out that they have been doing something right.
As the saying goes, someone once said, "you Aussies are way too apathetic", the reply he got was "I couldn't give a **** what you or the rest of the world think."
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Yep no wonder the states are taking matters into their own hands.You must have missed tonight's address. Still so many mixed messages & little clarity.
Players can go back home interstate of remain in their team's state. Somehow they have to continue training and stay fit in case the AFL can re-start from June. Interesting to see what happens (obviously more with us) from here.
Dusty won't be able to visit his Dad either.
Dusty won't be able to visit his Dad either.
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This. We had such a geographical advantage, *smile* we are girt by sea. And pissed it up against a wall.
B
Bill James
Guest
Let me guess where politicians want this to go.
Recognise the media has got way out of control on this.
Stop trying to be factual and closing the media down.
Tell the population its going to be even worse than what the media says.
Scare the living crap out of the entire population for something that has still only killed 12000 people (median estimate 37000 flue deaths in USA this season already.)
Put draconian measures in place
When it turns out to be nothing like what the media predicted and certainly nothing like the politicians followed up with, take all the credit for slowing it down.
I give you an example.
LA Times, Governor of California says 25.5 million people in California will be infected over an eight week period. (18th March)
Declines to explain how the estimates are made.
Announces people are only allowed to leave home for food and medical supplies or essential services, to care for someone or a neighborhood walk.
Spokesman says Governor is doing a great job and infections might yet be reduced by his measures.
At the time California had less than 300 cases, but in eight weeks it's going to be 25.5 million!!!
Seriously, its been in Italy since the last week of January, that's 7 weeks, in an older population, higher population density, lots more smokers and generally considered to have got off the mark very slowly, it's just now gone past 50,000 cases. Oh and by the way Italy has a population of 60 million and a population density 200 people per square km and California has a population of only 40 million and a population density of only 100 per square km.
But the Governor of California says the infection rate is going be 500 times worse? I call *smile*.
21 March Numbers from Italy
Still 1.2% of cases under 18
Still zero deaths under 30
Still 96% of deaths over 65
Still 73% of infections mild to asymptomatic.
Elsewhere on the site it shows 53,000 positive tests from 233,000 total tests to yesterday. That is still less than 25% positive. What do you think the other 75% are presenting with, sunburn? Hell no, given how hard it is to get tested these presentations will have multiple symptoms common to COVID.... but they don't have it. I'll bet they have the flu or a bad cold, Ask yourself, why is there three times as many people with flu symptoms as confirmed COVID cases!!!!!!! Probably because there is more flu and MAYBE FLU IS EASIER TO CATCH, think about that.
Italy records only 6% of cases as Asymptomatic. We know from the Japanese epidemiology on the Diamond Princess, more than half of positive cases were Asymptomatic. This suggests that I'm right and they are dominantly testing people with symptoms but still less than 1 in 4 are COVID positive.
Case Rate by Italian Province
Go to this site and look at the province of Lodi where COVID got going pretty early and had more cases than any other province on the 25 Feb Number of cases every four days goes like this.
Spot something? It was doubling every four days for the first couple of weeks but after that the number of new cases actually drops off. Oh and Lodi has a population of 230,000 so it hasn''t even infected 1% of the population yet. Check the site, you can switch the map to show the case rate per capita for all 110 provinces. There is not a single province in Italy where it has reached 1%. Ask yourself, when the flu goes through your workplace or school how often does it take out less than 1%?
But Governor of California is going to have 25 million cases in eight weeks ...........spare me.
Go through all 110 provinces in Italy, I can only find 4 where the case rate is over 0.5%. I am sure it will get there in some of them, but the infection pattern is pretty similar everywhere its been running for a while, it flattens out after 2-3 weeks. You can do the same for Germany but it doesn't have as much history yet.
Here is a tip, don't look at infection rate by country. Simple reason, someone from Bergamo region of Italy is more likely to infect someone in Switzerland than Sicily. Infection rates only make sense in geographic area were local transmission is likely.
I will keep on saying this, the data clearly shows that if you are under 30yo this presents less risk than the flu. If you are healthy and under 65 its probably the same as the flu. If you are over 65 and/or have a serious illness, its worse than the flu.
Wash your hands
Cover your cough
Stay home if you are sick
Isolate and care for the aged and infirmed.
Recognise the media has got way out of control on this.
Stop trying to be factual and closing the media down.
Tell the population its going to be even worse than what the media says.
Scare the living crap out of the entire population for something that has still only killed 12000 people (median estimate 37000 flue deaths in USA this season already.)
Put draconian measures in place
When it turns out to be nothing like what the media predicted and certainly nothing like the politicians followed up with, take all the credit for slowing it down.
I give you an example.
LA Times, Governor of California says 25.5 million people in California will be infected over an eight week period. (18th March)
Declines to explain how the estimates are made.
Announces people are only allowed to leave home for food and medical supplies or essential services, to care for someone or a neighborhood walk.
Spokesman says Governor is doing a great job and infections might yet be reduced by his measures.
At the time California had less than 300 cases, but in eight weeks it's going to be 25.5 million!!!
Seriously, its been in Italy since the last week of January, that's 7 weeks, in an older population, higher population density, lots more smokers and generally considered to have got off the mark very slowly, it's just now gone past 50,000 cases. Oh and by the way Italy has a population of 60 million and a population density 200 people per square km and California has a population of only 40 million and a population density of only 100 per square km.
But the Governor of California says the infection rate is going be 500 times worse? I call *smile*.
21 March Numbers from Italy
Still 1.2% of cases under 18
Still zero deaths under 30
Still 96% of deaths over 65
Still 73% of infections mild to asymptomatic.
Elsewhere on the site it shows 53,000 positive tests from 233,000 total tests to yesterday. That is still less than 25% positive. What do you think the other 75% are presenting with, sunburn? Hell no, given how hard it is to get tested these presentations will have multiple symptoms common to COVID.... but they don't have it. I'll bet they have the flu or a bad cold, Ask yourself, why is there three times as many people with flu symptoms as confirmed COVID cases!!!!!!! Probably because there is more flu and MAYBE FLU IS EASIER TO CATCH, think about that.
Italy records only 6% of cases as Asymptomatic. We know from the Japanese epidemiology on the Diamond Princess, more than half of positive cases were Asymptomatic. This suggests that I'm right and they are dominantly testing people with symptoms but still less than 1 in 4 are COVID positive.
Case Rate by Italian Province
Go to this site and look at the province of Lodi where COVID got going pretty early and had more cases than any other province on the 25 Feb Number of cases every four days goes like this.
| DATE | CASES | NEW CASES BY SUBTRACTION |
| 25 Feb | 125 | |
| 29 Feb | 237 | 112 |
| 4 Mar | 559 | 332 |
| 8 Mar | 853 | 294 |
| 12 Mar | 1123 | 270 |
| 16 Mar | 1362 | 239 |
| 19 Mar | 1528 | (166 but only 3 days ) |
Spot something? It was doubling every four days for the first couple of weeks but after that the number of new cases actually drops off. Oh and Lodi has a population of 230,000 so it hasn''t even infected 1% of the population yet. Check the site, you can switch the map to show the case rate per capita for all 110 provinces. There is not a single province in Italy where it has reached 1%. Ask yourself, when the flu goes through your workplace or school how often does it take out less than 1%?
But Governor of California is going to have 25 million cases in eight weeks ...........spare me.
Go through all 110 provinces in Italy, I can only find 4 where the case rate is over 0.5%. I am sure it will get there in some of them, but the infection pattern is pretty similar everywhere its been running for a while, it flattens out after 2-3 weeks. You can do the same for Germany but it doesn't have as much history yet.
Here is a tip, don't look at infection rate by country. Simple reason, someone from Bergamo region of Italy is more likely to infect someone in Switzerland than Sicily. Infection rates only make sense in geographic area were local transmission is likely.
I will keep on saying this, the data clearly shows that if you are under 30yo this presents less risk than the flu. If you are healthy and under 65 its probably the same as the flu. If you are over 65 and/or have a serious illness, its worse than the flu.
Wash your hands
Cover your cough
Stay home if you are sick
Isolate and care for the aged and infirmed.
you're allowed to be skeptical, no problems there, there has been some overhype on some aspects sure, but the data does not clearly show that. Not at all.
