Imagine if they locked everything down back then and there were only half a dozen new infections a day. They had to wait for a pre-defined point before pulling the trigger (the Ruby Princess positives may have hastened the decision). No idea whether they've got it right, but they've managed well to date.
Australia - first case January 25, 1200 infections
Germany - first case January 27, 22K infections
Italy - first case January 31, 54K infections
I'm hopeful we'll be able to keep the medical load manageable.
You reckon?
“Let’s cut to the chase,” he fires down the phone line, before even being asked a question. “They were warned 12 weeks ago by WHO [the World Health Organization] and others what was coming. They did not accumulate test kits. They did not accumulate the necessary emergency equipment. They did not undertake a public education campaign. They gave no money to science, no money to research, no money to the International Vaccine Institute, no money to WHO. They diligently did not do anything useful.”
Bowtell is an adjunct professor at the Kirby Institute for infection and immunity at the University of New South Wales. He was the architect of Australia’s world-leading response to the AIDS epidemic several decades ago. More recently, he worked for 15 years with the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. He knows a bit about the insidious way diseases spread.
“I am deeply scared,” he says, twice, before substituting the more moderate word “concerned”. But the examples he cites are more than concerning: they are scary.
New coronavirus cases in Spain are growing exponentially. In Denmark, infections are up tenfold in a week. In Norway, up sixfold. Italy, where the authorities acted way too late, has had almost 36,000 confirmed cases and 3000 deaths.
In contrast, Bowtell and other public health experts point to a handful of nations – China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong – that responded early and decisively and have succeeded in flattening the curve of infections, if not stopping the spread of Covid-19 almost completely. We should have been emulating them, says Bowtell, but instead Australia’s response to the plague has been more akin to Europe and America.
“WE WERE OUT THERE THUMPING OUR CHESTS AND PUTTING PEOPLE ON CHRISTMAS ISLAND, BUT WE SHOULD HAVE AT THE SAME TIME BEEN SAYING, ‘OKAY, WHAT ARE THE SCENARIOS FROM HERE? CAN WE ORDER SOME ICU MACHINES? WHAT ELSE WILL WE NEED?’ ”
Australia’s slow reaction is all the more unforgiveable because we were granted, largely due to good luck and geographic isolation, the luxury of time to watch and learn. But we were slow learners. Now, the spread of the disease is showing up deficiencies in our short-term response as well as pre-existing shortcomings in Australia’s health system.
As the number of cases escalates, experts say the PM moved too slowly to contain the threat of Covid-19, straining our already under-resourced health system.
www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au