Coronavirus

[22nd Man]

Can’t agree with this. They need to be disbursed in an even manner as regional areas are also doing the heavy lifting with lockdowns as well.

You could even argue that an area like Portland or Horsham could get their whole populations vaccinated so that they can open up sooner so that kids can go back to school etc, as their risk factor is lower in they are a significant drive away from Melbourne.

Well that last paragraph supports my argument too. Maybe knock off the covid free areas quickly so they can open and stay open. (but they should be opening these remoter area schools now.... cautious say one grade a day for the first week, 2 days next week etc)

 

[22nd Man]

The laws of exponentiality means NSW will hit 10,000 cases per day in October at current rates. Hopefully vaccination will help reducing hospitalisations, otherwise its gonna be very ugly.

Are hospital cases growing exponentially? My Layman logic would think it would have to.

 

[22nd Man]

Victoria put in place a successful lockdown which brought transmission from 700 daily cases to zero. Gladys should have been striving to emulate Victoria.

Every lockdown will be successful if getting to zero is the measure... just have to go long enough.

 

[22nd Man]

NSW doing substantially more through Federal Gov't run GP's and Pharmacists than VIC.

I.am always perplexed when I read the frequent statements like this .. does the federal govt RUN my local GP? I
I pay the doc Medicare refunds me in part. I know docs have to be qualified registered etc but the clinic is owned by the non doctor widow of my late doctor. Don't see much government involvement day to day in GP clinics. I would think.they have to follow a lot of state health regs as well.

 

[Ian4]

76 Cases today. Reff Number 1.21.

2 week lockdown to be announced today. In before anyone asks… I haven’t heard anything about easing of restrictions.

Not sure if true. One of our senators was mentioning that in Australia, the Federal govt does not under the constitution have the power to mandate vaccine(meds) thus the reason we hear its not mandatory. BUT the person went to state that under State laws around the country in Aust, the various State government DO have the power to enforce say the vaccine on people but are not excercising their powers.

even if that’s true, why can’t the federal government just legislate? They’ll have bipartisan support on this.

 

[Sintiger]

We haven’t seen anything in NSW yet. Get ready for a further explosion. Hospitals very fearful of ability to cope

 

[Brodders17]

even if that’s true, why can’t the federal government just legislate? They’ll have bipartisan support on this.

if it under the constitution it would need a referendum to change I would assume.

 

[Brodders17]

76 Cases today. Reff Number 1.21.

2 week lockdown to be announced today. In before anyone asks… I haven’t heard anything about easing of restrictions.

Any easing of restrictions will need to find the very fine balance of allowing things that make a real difference to people's quality of life, while not increasing the risk of transmission.

sounds like some regional areas will get more restrictions lifted. again care will need to taken to find the right balance. Shepparton showed how quickly cases can go from none to a lot.

 

[IanG]

Why Australia has no chance of ‘opening up’ at 70 per cent vaccination

Another day and the prospect of Australia “opening up” upon hitting the government’s magic vaccination numbers recedes a little further.

thenewdaily.com.au

 

[RoarEmotion]

Are hospital cases growing exponentially? My Layman logic would think it would have to.

Data I’ve seen shows doubling every 11 days at the moment on case numbers. So I guess it depends om the age of people getting the cases are for likely impact to hospitals. But assuming it’s the same distribution as previous cases then the demand should scale with cases with the two week delay…… however

You would imagine more triage goes on though as this gets worse so only severe cases get let in to hospitals so the hospital cases may not grow as much more because of a lack of supply rather than demand.

 

[Panthera Tigris]

Why Australia has no chance of ‘opening up’ at 70 per cent vaccination

Another day and the prospect of Australia “opening up” upon hitting the government’s magic vaccination numbers recedes a little further.

thenewdaily.com.au

Not offering a view as to whether I think it's right or wrong. But did see some analysis that suggested it is not unlikely that NSW (and possibly VIC) could find themselves open to large parts of the rest of the world (with certain management protocols in place) by mid to late December, but not open to other jurisdictions in Australia. Absurd an outcome as it sounds, it is possible. A lot of people dismiss such talk as "oh that wouldn't ever happen, that's silly even contemplating it." But a lot of unthought of things have happened over the past 12-18 months, that nothing surprises me anymore.

 

[mrposhman]

We haven’t seen anything in NSW yet. Get ready for a further explosion. Hospitals very fearful of ability to cope

Agreed, hospitalisation as a proportion of active cases has been reducing but seems to be stabilising around 5% of active cases.

Active cases showing no sign of slowing down. Active cases growing every day, adding to it at about 85-90% of new cases announced in a day, and this % is getting worse suggesting that the situation is getting worse.

If they are struggling in terms of number of nurses right now, I shudder to think where they will be in 3-4 weeks.

The below is a chart showing active cases growth (blue bars) and hospitalisation numbers (orange line), but going at a sizeable rate.

 

[mrposhman]

Data I’ve seen shows doubling every 11 days at the moment on case numbers. So I guess it depends how old the cases are for likely impact to hospitals. But assuming it’s the same distribution as previous cases then the demand should scale with cases with the two week delay.

You would imagine more triage goes on though as this gets worse so only severe cases get let in to hospitals so the hospital cases may not grow as much more because of a lack of supply rather than demand.

Whilst not quite 11 days, looks like its about 14-15 but the below table shows the movement across those 11 days. I have extrapolated at the same % movements we have seen over the last 11 days to give us an indication what the next 3 11 day periods could lead to. The hospitalisation and ICU rates have been declining which I have continued assuming that this decrease has been the result of the vaccination programme.

At what point do hospitals become unable to cope with the demand?

 

[RoarEmotion]

 

[RoarEmotion]

Whilst not quite 11 days, looks like its about 14-15 but the below table shows the movement across those 11 days. I have extrapolated at the same % movements we have seen over the last 11 days to give us an indication what the next 3 11 day periods could lead to. The hospitalisation and ICU rates have been declining which I have continued assuming that this decrease has been the result of the vaccination programme.

At what point do hospitals become unable to cope with the demand?

View attachment 13247

My guess is we are already seeing the percent drop more because of triage vs vaccination. You need 2 weeks AFTER second dose right? Maybe a bit of both.

 

[spook]

If they are struggling in terms of number of nurses right now, I shudder to think where they will be in 3-4 weeks.

Never fear, I'm sure SloMo will second nurses from lesser states.

 

[22nd Man]

Why Australia has no chance of ‘opening up’ at 70 per cent vaccination

Another day and the prospect of Australia “opening up” upon hitting the government’s magic vaccination numbers recedes a little further.

thenewdaily.com.au

Good kicker at the bottom ! The link to WA hospitals under pressure without any covid. And have been on other occasions this year.
Now I know why McGowan is talking tough and staying shut... he is shitting himself if covid ever got in. There's always a hidden reason with politicians. (Also shuts me when afl fan boys say WA have "earned the right" to host GF. How?)

PRE good source of information.

 

[22nd Man]

Never fear, I'm sure SloMo will second nurses from lesser states.

Won't be from WA.

 

[Ian4]

Whilst not quite 11 days, looks like its about 14-15 but the below table shows the movement across those 11 days. I have extrapolated at the same % movements we have seen over the last 11 days to give us an indication what the next 3 11 day periods could lead to. The hospitalisation and ICU rates have been declining which I have continued assuming that this decrease has been the result of the vaccination programme.

At what point do hospitals become unable to cope with the demand?

View attachment 13247

good post, but politicians north of the border (as well as the media) will just spin this as “vaccines are working” and ignore the real frightening numbers.

5408 cases in NSW in 5 days. This should be leading the news services in every jurisdiction, as well as on the front page of every paper. That fact that it’s not – and other narratives are being pushed - is also frightening, but in a very different way.

 

[jb03]

good post, but politicians north of the border (as well as the media) will just spin this as “vaccines are working” and ignore the real frightening numbers.

5408 cases in NSW in 5 days. This should be leading the news services in every jurisdiction, as well as on the front page of every paper. That fact that it’s not – and other narratives are being pushed - is also frightening, but in a very different way.

NSW Good Work, looking to open up.

Vic Bad, out of control.