Coronavirus

[MB78]

but from reports the modelling is done assuming low rates of the virus to begin with.
also the modelling was done when children were being affected, and spreading the virus.

and certain governments (2) are being evasive when talking about what 70 or 80% actually means? does it mean of the whole population or just of the ages that can be vaccinated?
and certain governments (2) appear to be pushing this modelling to excuse their actions, and to limit their responsibility to the situation NSW (and Victoria as a result) currently finds itself in.

Reopening still safe with hundreds of daily COVID cases, Doherty Institute boss says

Professor Sharon Lewin confirmed her modelling supports reopening at high levels of vaccination regardless of caseload numbers.

www.smh.com.au

Please read this. It explains what the modelling is based on and it’s 16 years and older.

 

[mrposhman]

In an average year of influenza, we would roughly have 600 deaths and 200,000 cases in Australia. Any death is a tragedy, but our health system can cope with this. In the COVID-19 modelling, opening up at 70% vaccine coverage of the adult population with partial public health measures, we predict 385,983 symptomatic cases and 1,457 deaths over six months. With optimal public health measures (and no lockdowns), this can be significantly reduced to 2,737 infections and 13 deaths.

13 deaths over 6 months? What year they talking?

That just seems completely unrealistic.

The UK is over 60% vaccinated and is having cases of around 500 per million per day. That would equate to circa 11-12k cases per day in Australia. Using their average deaths per day of about 100, that would equate to about 37 / day in Australia, which would result in about 13k deaths / year in Australia.

How do they get 13 across a 6 month period?

 

[MB78]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1429954786435100678

I will have a listen later today to this podcast.

 

[Tigers of Old]

yeah, its gonna read like a Margaret Atwood novel

Is it safe to assume the 25,000 Australian deaths being predicted after opening up @ 80% will be old, black, and disabled and be nothing like Morrison or his daughters?

Speaking of which has any journalist asked Scott if his daughters are vaccinated?

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Model from ANU suggests 29K deaths if we reopen at 70% vaccinated.

Reopening Australia too early with lack of restrictions would cause ‘substantial mortality’, experts say (paywalled)

Can't allow Gladys to run her own race on this, even if it means NSW is locked down into the new year.

 

[caesar]

Seems low and reinforces concerns that people aren't getting tested.

Victorian testing numbers continue to be poor considering we are on a knife's edge tracking only a 3rd of what NSW are doing.

In last 7 days NSW did 1,143,302 tests VIC only 305,494.

COVID-19 tests conducted in total in the last 7 days and results​

This table shows the number of COVID-19 tests conducted in total and in the last 7 days, the rate of tests in the last 7 days per 100,000 population and the percentage that returned a positive result by state and territory and in Australia, since the first case was reported.

Source: Department of Health, States & Territories Report 23/8/2021​

Jurisdiction	Tests in last 7 days	Tests in last 7 days per 100,000 population	Total tests	Total positive tests (%)
Australia	1,675,440	6,607	29,853,027	0.2%
ACT	50,634	11,882	349,750	0.1%
NSW	1,143,302	14,140	12,114,261	0.2%
NT	14,476	5,882	336,291	0.1%
QLD	83,586	1,641	3,922,177	0.1%
SA	38,014	2,169	2,052,278	0.0%
TAS	8,356	1,563	323,770	0.1%
VIC	305,494	4,633	9,136,022	0.2%
WA	31,578	1,204	1,618,478	0.1%

 

[Ian4]

people's infectious period starts 2 days before they show symptoms. people generally are only in isolation for their entire infectious period when they are a close contact of someone who got tested very quickly once they caught the virus.

not being in isolation does not mean people are out in the community infectious.

during the last outbreak Jeroen used to provide data on the average amount of days positive cases were infectious in the community. For example, we know the source of the Shepparton outbreak was in the community for 9 days before he even got a test. But the people he passed it onto may have only been in the community for 1-2 days. If this average has dropped over the past 48-72 hours, it could explain the lower number of cases today.

 

[DavidSSS]

That just seems completely unrealistic.

The UK is over 60% vaccinated and is having cases of around 500 per million per day. That would equate to circa 11-12k cases per day in Australia. Using their average deaths per day of about 100, that would equate to about 37 / day in Australia, which would result in about 13k deaths / year in Australia.

How do they get 13 across a 6 month period?

Yes, it is rather strange that claim that we would end up with 13 deaths over 6 months when we are seeing around 100 deaths per day in the UK. Opening up completely like the UK seems to have done with only 60% of the over 16s vaccinated does not look viable. Even more so when you consider that they are tracking and tracing and telling people to stay home if they are close contacts of people with the virus.

50 is a good number for Vic today. Too early to say it is turning but hopefully it has stopped rising. Would be good to know, as someone pointed to above, how many are in Shepparton and how many in Melbourne given Melbourne locked down earlier.

We'll see what comes out of NSW at 11.

DS

 

[Ian4]

Victorian testing numbers continue to be poor considering we on a knife's edge tracking only a 3rd of what NSW are doing.

In last 7 days NSW did 1,143,302 tests VIC only 305,494.

While I agree VIC testing numbers need to be higher, comparing NSW testing numbers to VIC is not a fair comparison because NSW are forcing essential workers in those 12 LGA to have tests every 3 days.

 

[DavidSSS]

Victorian testing numbers continue to be poor considering we are on a knife's edge tracking only a 3rd of what NSW are doing.

In last 7 days NSW did 1,143,302 tests VIC only 305,494.

COVID-19 tests conducted in total in the last 7 days and results​

This table shows the number of COVID-19 tests conducted in total and in the last 7 days, the rate of tests in the last 7 days per 100,000 population and the percentage that returned a positive result by state and territory and in Australia, since the first case was reported.

Source: Department of Health, States & Territories Report 23/8/2021​

Jurisdiction	Tests in last 7 days	Tests in last 7 days per 100,000 population	Total tests	Total positive tests (%)
Australia	1,675,440	6,607	29,853,027	0.2%
ACT	50,634	11,882	349,750	0.1%
NSW	1,143,302	14,140	12,114,261	0.2%
NT	14,476	5,882	336,291	0.1%
QLD	83,586	1,641	3,922,177	0.1%
SA	38,014	2,169	2,052,278	0.0%
TAS	8,356	1,563	323,770	0.1%
VIC	305,494	4,633	9,136,022	0.2%
WA	31,578	1,204	1,618,478	0.1%

True, and we need to get testing rates up in Vic. But the NSW numbers are at least partially inflated by the requirement for some (or all, not sure) essential workers to be tested every 3 days. So, there is a lot of duplication in their testing numbers.

The one thing NSW has done well is to get the testing numbers high.

DS

Ian beat me to it!

 

[MB78]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1429935063588737025

Some interesting data here. Regional areas seem to be performing better.

Looks to me that more hubs need to be opened up in more locations urgently.

 

[Baloo]

No longer announcing cases per day reminds me of junior sport where they try not to keep score. Just not right.

 

[mrposhman]

Did I hear the NSW deputy health minister say they are having a vaccination cup? WTF

Looking at the Doherty modelling compared to what is happening overseas, its actually quite scary we are using them as the definition of what will happen once we get to x% of vaccines as their modelling looks quite different to what is happening overseas.

 

[caesar]

NZ locked down after only ONE case and even they have recorded 41 new cases overnight.

 

[caesar]

.

 

[22nd Man]

Speaking of which has any journalist asked Scott if his daughters are vaccinated?

Pathetic.

 

[BT Tiger]

Gee Dan confusing vaccine rollout further in Victoria in his presser, telling people who have already booked an AZ appointment that they can change it to Pfizer which will eat into limited Pfizer supply and limit NEW appointments.

I don't think so - Its the PM who has provided confusing messaging.

The last 3 days has seen 15 000 appointments cancelled in Victoria since Morrison announced that Pfizer would be available to basically everyone by the end of the month.

To stop people cancelling their appointments (or worse, no-showing), Dan tells the public that they'll get whatever vaccine they prefer if you show up to your appointment. Makes sense to me!

 

[22nd Man]

NZ locked down after only ONE case and even they have recorded 41 new cases overnight.

They would want to be with their tardy vaccination rate. Antipodean attitudes.
But ACT with their nation leading vaccination rate and probably the highest work form home capability in the nation is in lockdown too. They are running at per capita rate that would be over 400 per day in Mel/ Syd but no one seems to care (being Canberra or because its an ALP governed territory?)

 

[Al Bundy]

The plan is by this person. It’s not done by the Feds. We have to take the politics out of it.

Professor Sharon Lewin | Doherty Website

Your default description here

www.doherty.edu.au

Heard her being interviewed today and was put forward a number of scenario and handled it very well.

Its sounds very promising. Even tackled the Q on vaxing kids.

I now have placing heavy attention on "cases" but more the death rates, and a touch more confident now that we could be able to get to some normalities it the very near future (months).

Vax rates very good. (Looking at 1st doses), 2nd doses for full vax will be good to see end of Sept after a couple of mths earlier when questions were being asked of AZ and va program stalled. Im very confident we'll be over 60% within 4 to 5 wks. (just my take).

She was on Neil Mitchell program over an hr ago. Maybe their is a link to it later. Unable to check right now to find it

 

[Tigers of Old]

I don't think so - Its the PM who has provided confusing messaging.

The last 3 days has seen 15 000 appointments cancelled in Victoria since Morrison announced that Pfizer would be available to basically everyone by the end of the month.

To stop people cancelling their appointments (or worse, no-showing), Dan tells the public that they'll get whatever vaccine they prefer if you show up to your appointment. Makes sense to me!

If you hadn't already had the jab would you get the one that takes 12 weeks to be fully vaxed or the one that takes 3 weeks?

The messaging from Morrison & Andrews has been mixed though. All comes down to supply..