Coronavirus

[RoarEmotion]

I don't understand why Gladys is claiming it can't be pulled back given Victoria's numbers this time last year.

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It’s a different reproducibility. So you would need significantly less human interaction than last year to change it. So you need a harder and more effective lockdown than Vic/ or you reduce the reproducibility (vaccine). And as we all know now, not everyone follows the rules even if you make them.

Without having modelled it myself, from the snippets I’ve read of those that do, it seems unlikely to turn.

Effectively it’s a runaway reaction and once you get past a certain tipping point you are gone.

My guess is the change in the NSW settings is to control the demand on the hospital system. There is a reason chant looked stressed beyond belief yesterday and was given quite some time to talk and not interrupted.

 

[MD Jazz]

I don't know how old you are MD but I'm 56 and my kids are living on another planet to people my age.

Last time we went into lockdown my 18 year old's only comment was "smile" I'm going to have to reduce the radius on my Tinder profile.

I agree with you shad and your post was spot on. The young have been left out - again. Their education/sport/recreation/part-time work/travel/social lives have been decimated.
I was commenting on the different standards being applied to Syd folks being out and about and Melb folks.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

So you need a harder and more effective lockdown than Vic

All that's needed is a bit of willpower. Declare a state of emergency and enforce it. Detain rulebreakers for their own good and that of the country.

I have no faith in NSW being able to keep this manageable for another several months.

 

[IanG]

Footage of illegal engagement party (paywalled)

Footage has emerged of a man joking about breaching coronavirus restrictions at his illegal engagement party.

The gathering last weekend is believed to have been attended by up to 100 people, including a St Kilda East mother and her son, whose positive test results were among Sunday’s Victorian mystery cases.

Oh great so this will be a super spreader event.

 

[IanG]

Interesting how photos of ghe Syd crowds and people defying lockdowns attract scorn. Those same transgressions in Melb bring sympathy and posts about how difficult it is on the young.

No sympathy from me, they are as stupid as the Sydney people.

 

[MD Jazz]

All that's needed is a bit of willpower. Declare a state of emergency and enforce it. Detain rulebreakers for their own good and that of the country.

I have no faith in NSW being able to keep this manageable for another several months.

When fines are not enforced and the repercussions of breaking rules are essentially nothing what incentive (or dis-incentive) is there for people stop flouting the rules?

It's all Dan's fault, he tweets out "zero" and we have a flood of new cases. He Jonah'd us.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Seems like the global surge might be starting to flatten out. But it'll be back.

 

[Wildride]

22 cases, 17 linked, 14 in iso. We're *smile*.

 

[Ridley]

22 cases, 17 linked, 14 in iso. We're *smile*.

The only positive is that those numbers are slightly better than yesterday; but yes not great. Still too many infectious in the community and still too many mystery cases.

Anyone know how many mystery cases we are dealing with overall at the moment?

 

[Redford]

All these mystery cases. We either have people breaching regulations and just not answering tracers’ questions properly, or, this Delta strain is so contagious that it’s transmitting via the most incidental of exposures and/or people not following safety protocols eg standing to close to someone, not wearing a mask etc

Maybe a combo of all of the above. Who knows.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Seems more stubborn this time for sure.
Think much of it would be down to lockdown fatigue.

There's no doubt it's a huge factor.

When Victorians got it down to zero last outbreak the very next day it sprung up again.
Coupled with the fact that we have a neighbouring state (the country's largest) where the virus is spinning out of control.

My question to Daniel Andrews would be what is the endgame here? Eradication or suppression?
I think he'd secretly say they're just trying to contain it now & prevent thousands of hospitalisations until vaccination rates are up considerably.
Sustainable zero seems an unachievable goal now.

I'm not expecting a lifting of the lockdown anytime soon & that's making everybody very tired of this.
Some will have greater tolerences than others but young people in particular will have a lower threshold.

 

[Redford]

Seems more stubborn this time for sure.
Think much of it would be down to lockdown fatigue.

There's no doubt it's a huge factor.

When Victorians got it down to zero last outbreak the very next day it sprung up again.
Coupled with the fact that we have a neighbouring state (the country's largest) where the virus is spinning out of control.

My question to Daniel Andrews would be what is the endgame here? Eradication or suppression?
I think he'd secretly say they're just trying to contain it now & prevent thousands of hospitalisations until vaccination rates are up considerably.
Sustainable zero seems an unachievable goal now.

I'm not expecting a lifting of the lockdown anytime soon & that's making everybody very tired of this.
Some will have greater tolerences than others but young people in particular will have a lower threshold.

When will we achieve satisfactory vaccination levels to get out of this miserable existence though ? All these projections of October for NSW and maybe something similar for Victoria are based on current rates but they don't account for: 1) supply issues 2) time lags associated with double dosing 3) the inevitable 'wall of resistance' you hit i.e. laggards, anti vaxxers etc. 4) the impending booster need.

Hate to say it, but my fear is that because the whole vaccination program has been so disgracefully managed to date, that the country will be in an intolerable state of lockdown/restrictions for at least another 6 months. That's the state Morrison has put the country in now and maybe for much much longer than people actually realise.

 

[Baloo]

All hopes of making it back to Australia this Christmas are now shot. The only silver lining is when people ask me when was the last time my boys saw their Aussie Grand Parents, it brings a smile to my face. September 28th, 2019.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Check this out from the Prime Minister of Sydney. Don't let the gaslighter revise history. Victorians won't forget.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1426729027985809410

 

[spook]

Interesting how photos of ghe Syd crowds and people defying lockdowns attract scorn. Those same transgressions in Melb bring sympathy and posts about how difficult it is on the young.
Ultimately both cities have a similar mix of selfish, stupid and fatigued.

I'd say Melbourne people, having endured more than six months of lockdown for the good of the country, only to see the complacent, arrogant NSW premier and PM for Sydney *smile* in their faces, are a bit more entitled to lockdown fatigue and sympathy than those who have 'endured' a few weeks of 'stay-home-unless-you-don't-want-to-down'.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

When will we achieve satisfactory vaccination levels to get out of this miserable existence though ? All these projections of October for NSW and maybe something similar for Victoria are based on current rates but they don't account for: 1) supply issues 2) time lags associated with double dosing 3) the inevitable 'wall of resistance' you hit i.e. laggards, anti vaxxers etc. 4) the impending booster need.

Hate to say it, but my fear is that because the whole vaccination program has been so disgracefully managed to date, that the country will be in an intolerable state of lockdown/restrictions for at least another 6 months. That's the state Morrison has put the country in now and maybe for much much longer than people actually realise.

Galling that New South Wales appears to have given up after the sentiment was first floated by Hazzard several weeks ago. They're in self-imposed limbo.

 

[Ridley]

Check this out from the Prime Minister of Sydney. Don't let the gaslighter revise history. Victorians won't forget.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1426729027985809410

Even from the PM for Sydney's perspective that is incredible arrogance and hubris. No we will not forget.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Galling that New South Wales appears to have given up after the sentiment was first floated by Hazzard several weeks ago. They're in self-imposed limbo.

That was about 5 days into the quasi lockdown that Hazzard made the ‘live with the virus’ comments. Said all that needed to be said.

 

[Brodders17]

My question to Daniel Andrews would be what is the endgame here? Eradication or suppression?
I think he'd secretly say they're just trying to contain it now & prevent thousands of hospitalisations until vaccination rates are up considerably.
Sustainable zero seems an unachievable goal now.

Suppression though is a higher level of lockdown than what NSW is currently applying, as evidenced by there ever increasing numbers. NSW might be at a stage where they can only hope to contain numbers until the magical vaccinations rates are hit, but i dont think that should be our aim in Victoria, to live through 3 or 4 more months of lockdown.
and other states wont open borders until they also reach vaccination targets, and even they may not if there are 10000s cases in a state and none, or next to none in theirs

 

[MD Jazz]

I'd say Melbourne people, having endured more than six months of lockdown for the good of the country, only to see the complacent, arrogant NSW premier and PM for Sydney *smile* in their faces, are a bit more entitled to lockdown fatigue and sympathy than those who have 'endured' a few weeks of 'stay-home-unless-you-don't-want-to-down'.

You are probably right. But we have got it to zero before and life was pretty good when we did. Kids sport, going to footy, being able to go out without a mask etc. They are pretty good incentives. It's not that hard for a few weeks is it?

I still don't understand why we are not given more info about where people are being infected? We have a big list of exposure sites where infected people have been but have people been infected visiting these sites at the same time? There are only 20 odd cases a day, did these people get infected at home or did they get it visiting a shop? It may change behaviour if people were scared to be out because the risk of catching it at a supermarket etc is higher. I know we are bemoaning maskless people at parks but are people catching it in those circumstances?