It would be more effective than relying on our current federal government to get anything right. (other than pre-election
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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
There is no doubt there is an element of luck involved. However I believe demographics play a much larger part. Crowded cities with lots of big families attending mass gatherings indoors.
It is no coincidence that the 2 largest outbreaks in Australia have occurred in Melbourne and Sydney, by far the 2 biggest cities in Australia, in the middle of winter.
true. though in the recent vic outbreak an infected person went to a restaurant and maybe 6 or so diners were infected.
In SA about a month ago an infected person went to a restaurant and no one was infected.
it is not all luck, but luck certainly plays a part. and yes big, crowded cities are certainly more at risk, members of big families getting infected increases the risk, people living in apartment blocks increases the risk. well off people, who can afford not to go to work or can work from home (not while infectious but whilst the disease is in the area) living in an area that is easy to close off from the rest of the city decreases the risk of transmission.
Yep agree with all that. There is no doubt that the demographics and living conditions (for want of a better expression) of less affluent areas means that the virus will spread more rapidly.
That is plainly clear from last year's Melbourne outbreak and the current Sydney outbreak.
I dont know if viruses have evolved to utilise luck yet?
theres obviously heaps we dont understand.
but I reckon this one is particularly weird,
Its not just the city, but where in the city the outbreaks have occurred. In the high density areas, multi age dwellings, lower income households, jobs that can't be performed WFH.
These are the things that IMO have resulted in NSW being lucky in the past. Not lucky that its gone away quickly, but more which demographic the outbreak occurs in.
Whilst their previous attempts to suppress the virus have been successful, that approach has worked in areas that do not fit the above demographic. They failed to see the increased risk of that demographic and have paid for it.
Unbelievable isnt it. Quickly glossed over the number of cases thats for sure.
random mutation and random sorting of DNA, is luck.
lucky if it overcomes a selective pressure, unlucky if doesn't,
and yeah, increasing the chances of getting lucky through sheer numbers.
I dont know about transmission though, especially with the variables apparently involved?
it could be luck, whether an infected Serbian QAnon'er wanted a massage facing up ,or facing down I suppose?
a kind of a strange, viralogical, culture war, heads or tails?
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Thought I'd share a personal story for all those who are chosing to isolate rather than vaccinate.
Since this lockdown started I have been isolating in the sense that I have only left my house twice. Once to go to the supermarket, and once to take my daughter to the playground down the street.
For context, this playground is just a set of swings and a slide, I go there routinely and rarely see anyone else there. When I went on Sunday there was, unusually, another family there. My daughter and I played on the slide a fair distance from them on the swings, and waited for them to leave before approaching the swings. None of this family were wearing masks.
Yesterday I get a text message from my wife showing an exposure site near me. The playground is an exposure site. Sunday. 3:00. When I was there. There was only one other family there at the time, so I know they must be the positive case, I also know from the news that the positive case was a kid, I know they weren't wearing masks, and I know my daughter used the swings directly afterwards.
So we isolate, get tested, all negative all good.
But it wouldn't have taken much for us to now be positive cases. It struck me just how impossible it is to isolate yourself from this and still exist in the world. I have spent a grand total of an hour and a half outside my house for the last two weeks, and got exposed. I'm partially vaccinated, but am hanging out for the next shot.
Since this lockdown started I have been isolating in the sense that I have only left my house twice. Once to go to the supermarket, and once to take my daughter to the playground down the street.
For context, this playground is just a set of swings and a slide, I go there routinely and rarely see anyone else there. When I went on Sunday there was, unusually, another family there. My daughter and I played on the slide a fair distance from them on the swings, and waited for them to leave before approaching the swings. None of this family were wearing masks.
Yesterday I get a text message from my wife showing an exposure site near me. The playground is an exposure site. Sunday. 3:00. When I was there. There was only one other family there at the time, so I know they must be the positive case, I also know from the news that the positive case was a kid, I know they weren't wearing masks, and I know my daughter used the swings directly afterwards.
So we isolate, get tested, all negative all good.
But it wouldn't have taken much for us to now be positive cases. It struck me just how impossible it is to isolate yourself from this and still exist in the world. I have spent a grand total of an hour and a half outside my house for the last two weeks, and got exposed. I'm partially vaccinated, but am hanging out for the next shot.
I think the luck element is whether the infected person has a high viral load (and therefore highly infectious) or is asymptomatic.
People are saying NSW was lucky because they had two outbreaks earlier in the year where they never found patient zero. They were fortunate that those individuals weren't super spreaders.
Can't recall where i read it, but i did see statistics estimating that 20% of people who catch the virus are likely to spread it. The remaining 80% are much less likely to do so.
Some people suggested that Gladys should have shut down straight way. Now look at what they've got..
Not at all
I’m guessing that you have a very strong understanding of written and spoken English, don’t live in outer south western Sydney where restrictions are constantly changing and police and army are out patrolling the streets, and have many varied sources of current information (doctors, pharmacists, tv, news) in your own language to keep you up to date and informed, so can understand your opinion.
In many cases, their only source of COVID information from the federal government is TWO MONTHS out of date.
But yeah, iPhones
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25% of 390 cases were in Iso during infectious period. 14 day average is 279. At this rate, NSW’s total number will overtake Victoria’s total numbers in approx 31 days.
should have done it weeks ago.
should have done it weeks ago.
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