Oh yeah, it's log not linear. I should have realised that, I've been switching between those views on graphs all day.
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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
Oh yeah, it's log not linear. I should have realised that, I've been switching between those views on graphs all day.
The vertical scale is logarithmic so it's valid for showing comparisons, if not actual values. A chart drawn to scale would probably be difficult to read.
Edit: as above
If what the Herald Sun are reporting is correct then its proof that Scomo can talk the talk (yesterday he was all about job preservation) but either he or Joshie don't understand what the Business world actually requires. Talk that they will provide interest free loans to businesses.
Ok so what you are saying is, we want you to retain employees and we will not incentivise you, we will just say that you can pay it off at a later date, so guess what, job losses will continue.
What they should do is get a copy of the report that the NZ government used, get some white out and write in Aussie government and Scomos name.
What won't preserve jobs is exactly what they are coming up with, interest only loans, instant asset write offs, payroll tax reductions. These may well be used as support components of a package, but the priority has to be around how to retain jobs and preserve business cashflow. That should be funded by governments paying businesses at least contributions to wages, like what NZ have proposed, up to $588 / week for perm employees that cannot work from home.
Ok so what you are saying is, we want you to retain employees and we will not incentivise you, we will just say that you can pay it off at a later date, so guess what, job losses will continue.
What they should do is get a copy of the report that the NZ government used, get some white out and write in Aussie government and Scomos name.
What won't preserve jobs is exactly what they are coming up with, interest only loans, instant asset write offs, payroll tax reductions. These may well be used as support components of a package, but the priority has to be around how to retain jobs and preserve business cashflow. That should be funded by governments paying businesses at least contributions to wages, like what NZ have proposed, up to $588 / week for perm employees that cannot work from home.
Totally agree with this.
Countries without wet markets should start to boycott & add international travel bans on those that have them unless they do all they can to shut them down.
Yes I'm that serious.
It's critical that this is confirmed/debunked as soon as possible. If having had it makes you immune, those certified as clean of the virus and having built sufficient antibodies can go back to work and start things moving again.
Theres a number of things that haven't yet been confirmed / debunked as yet that are critical to how we go about that.
1 - Immunity or not after you have contracted it
2 - Does warmer seasonality impact transmission of the virus
3 - Is there a potential treatment that we already have, I've heard from a number of sources that anti malaria / anti HIV drugs can treat Covid-19. If that can be confirmed in human trials its significant as these drugs have already been approved for use on humans, so the only obstacle they have is do they work. Much faster to be able to get this out than all the work / approvals that need to go on to new drugs.
Personal belief only, but if mortality rates can drop to below 0.5% then everything will go back to normal and the remainder who get sick will be managed as they normally would through any other virus.
That low mortality rate depends pretty heavily on access to ICU and ventilators. Around 15% require this IIRC
The other thing I reckon we need is a better test. I was reading the other day about efforts to develop a blood test which hopefully would be more accurate and quicker.
Lets hope this gets worked out soon.
Immunity after infection is going to take a while to work out. We might be able to work out if one becomes immune, but it will take longer to work out if the immunity is long lasting.
DS
That's correct, the mortality rate drop will rely heavily on the ability to treat the virus. That's why having drugs that are already approved for human use could be game changers, but they need to prove in human trials that it works. You'd think that would be easy enough being as we have people in hospital now with the virus and some you would expect would already be in ICU.
B
Bill James
Guest
Italy Infographic 18 March
Median age of infection 63yo
1.2% of infections under 18yo
Zero deaths under 30yo
98% of deaths over 60yo
4.6% of cases are critical
From other research on the epicentro.iss.it website if you care to translate italian
Median age of death 81yo
99.2% of deaths had at least one serious underlying pathology (published 17th March)
74% had at least two serious underlying pathologies
49% had three serious underlying pathologies
Median age of infection 63yo
1.2% of infections under 18yo
Zero deaths under 30yo
98% of deaths over 60yo
4.6% of cases are critical
From other research on the epicentro.iss.it website if you care to translate italian
Median age of death 81yo
99.2% of deaths had at least one serious underlying pathology (published 17th March)
74% had at least two serious underlying pathologies
49% had three serious underlying pathologies
In that respect, it's not just about whether someone develops immunity, it's about how long they shed the virus.
If they recover in 3 weeks, but are infectious for 6, then that really matters.
Haven't been out much lately and it seems a trifle edgy on the roads today. Saw a couple of things that shouldn't have happened during a short trip. Best not to make assumptions about what other drivers are going to do.
A New York Doctor’s Coronavirus Warning: The Sky Is Falling
Cornelia Griggs
New York Times
March 19, 2020
Alarmist is not a word anyone has ever used to describe me before. But this is different.
I’ve had hard conversations this week. “Look me in the eye,” I said to my neighbor Karen, who was spiraling to a dark place in her mind. “I make this personal promise to you — I will not let your children die from this disease.” I swallowed back a lump in my throat. Just the image of one of our kids attached to a tube was jarring. Two weeks ago our kids were having a pizza party and watching cartoons together, running back and forth between our apartments. This was before #socialdistancing was trending. Statistically, I still feel good about my promise to Karen because children do not seem to be dying from Covid-19. There are others to whom I cannot make similar promises.
A few days later, I got a text from another friend. She has asthma. “I’m just saying this because I need to say it to someone,” she wrote. She asked that if she gets sick and has a poor prognosis, to play recordings of the voice of Josie, her daughter. “I think it would bring me back,” she said. Josie is my 4-year-old’s best friend.
Today, at the hospital where I work, one of the largest in New York City, Covid-19 cases continue to climb, and there’s movement to redeploy as many health care workers as possible to the E.R.s, new “fever clinics” and I.C.U.s. It’s becoming an all-healthy-hands-on-deck scenario.
The sky is falling. I’m not afraid to say it. A few weeks from now you may call me an alarmist; and I can live with that. Actually, I will keel over with happiness if I’m proven wrong.
Alarmist is not a word anyone has ever used to describe me before. I’m a board-certified surgeon and critical care specialist who spent much of my training attending to traumas in the emergency room and doing the rounds at Harvard hospitals’ intensive care units. I’m now in my last four months of training as a pediatric surgeon in New York City. Part of my job entails waking in the middle of the night to rush to the children’s hospital to put babies on a form of life support called ECMO, a service required when a child’s lungs are failing even with maximum ventilator support. Scenarios that mimic end-stage Covid-19 are part of my job. Panic is not in my vocabulary; the emotion has been drilled out of me in nine years of training. This is different.
We are living in a global public health crisis moving at a speed and scale never witnessed by living generations. The cracks in our medical and financial systems are being splayed open like a gashing wound. No matter how this plays out, life will forever look a little different for all of us.
On the front lines, patients are lining up outside of our emergency rooms and clinics looking to us for answers — but we have few. Only on Friday did coronavirus testing become more readily available in New York, and the tests are still extremely limited. Right next to my office in the hospital, a lab is being repurposed with hopes of a capability to run 1,000 tests a day. But today, and likely tomorrow, even M.D.s do not have straightforward access to testing across the country. Furthermore, the guidelines and criteria for testing are changing almost daily. Our health care system is mired in situational uncertainty. The leadership of our hospital is working tirelessly — but doctors on the ground are pessimistic about our surge capacity.
Making my rounds at the children’s hospital earlier this week, I saw that the boxes of gloves and other personal protective equipment were dwindling. This is a crisis for our vulnerable patients and health care workers alike. Protective equipment is only one of the places where supplies are falling short. At our large, 4,000-bed New York City hospital, we have 500 ventilators and 250 on backup reserve. If we are on track to match the scale of Covid-19 infections in Italy, then we are likely to run out of ventilators in New York. The anti-viral “treatments” we have for Covid-19 are experimental and many of them are hard to even get approved. Let me repeat. The sky is falling.
I say this not to panic anyone but to mobilize you. We need more equipment and we need it now. Specifically gloves, masks, eye protection and more ventilators. We need our technology friends to be making and testing prototypes to rig the ventilators that we do have to support more than one patient at a time. We need our labs channeling all of their efforts into combating this bug — that means vaccine research and antiviral treatment research, quickly.
We need hospitals to figure out how to nimbly and flexibly modify our existing practices to adapt to this virus and do it fast. Doctors across the globe are sharing information, protocols and strategies through social media, because our common publishing channels are too slow. Physician and surgeon mothers are coming together on Facebook groups to publish advice to parents and the public, to amplify our outrage, and to underscore the fear we feel for our most vulnerable patient populations, as well as ourselves and our families.
Please flatten the curve and stay at home, but please do not go into couch mode. Like everyone, I have moments where imagining the worst possible Covid-19 scenario steals my breath. But cowering in the dark places of our minds doesn’t help. Rather than private panic, we need public-spirited action. Those of us walking into the rooms of Covid-19-positive patients every day need you and your minds, your networks, your creative solutions, and your voices to be fighting for us. We might be the exhausted masked face trying to resuscitate you when you show up on the doorstep of our hospital. And when you do, I promise not to panic. I’ll use every ounce of my expertise to keep you alive. Please, do the same for us.
Cornelia Griggs
New York Times
March 19, 2020
Alarmist is not a word anyone has ever used to describe me before. But this is different.
I’ve had hard conversations this week. “Look me in the eye,” I said to my neighbor Karen, who was spiraling to a dark place in her mind. “I make this personal promise to you — I will not let your children die from this disease.” I swallowed back a lump in my throat. Just the image of one of our kids attached to a tube was jarring. Two weeks ago our kids were having a pizza party and watching cartoons together, running back and forth between our apartments. This was before #socialdistancing was trending. Statistically, I still feel good about my promise to Karen because children do not seem to be dying from Covid-19. There are others to whom I cannot make similar promises.
A few days later, I got a text from another friend. She has asthma. “I’m just saying this because I need to say it to someone,” she wrote. She asked that if she gets sick and has a poor prognosis, to play recordings of the voice of Josie, her daughter. “I think it would bring me back,” she said. Josie is my 4-year-old’s best friend.
Today, at the hospital where I work, one of the largest in New York City, Covid-19 cases continue to climb, and there’s movement to redeploy as many health care workers as possible to the E.R.s, new “fever clinics” and I.C.U.s. It’s becoming an all-healthy-hands-on-deck scenario.
The sky is falling. I’m not afraid to say it. A few weeks from now you may call me an alarmist; and I can live with that. Actually, I will keel over with happiness if I’m proven wrong.
Alarmist is not a word anyone has ever used to describe me before. I’m a board-certified surgeon and critical care specialist who spent much of my training attending to traumas in the emergency room and doing the rounds at Harvard hospitals’ intensive care units. I’m now in my last four months of training as a pediatric surgeon in New York City. Part of my job entails waking in the middle of the night to rush to the children’s hospital to put babies on a form of life support called ECMO, a service required when a child’s lungs are failing even with maximum ventilator support. Scenarios that mimic end-stage Covid-19 are part of my job. Panic is not in my vocabulary; the emotion has been drilled out of me in nine years of training. This is different.
We are living in a global public health crisis moving at a speed and scale never witnessed by living generations. The cracks in our medical and financial systems are being splayed open like a gashing wound. No matter how this plays out, life will forever look a little different for all of us.
On the front lines, patients are lining up outside of our emergency rooms and clinics looking to us for answers — but we have few. Only on Friday did coronavirus testing become more readily available in New York, and the tests are still extremely limited. Right next to my office in the hospital, a lab is being repurposed with hopes of a capability to run 1,000 tests a day. But today, and likely tomorrow, even M.D.s do not have straightforward access to testing across the country. Furthermore, the guidelines and criteria for testing are changing almost daily. Our health care system is mired in situational uncertainty. The leadership of our hospital is working tirelessly — but doctors on the ground are pessimistic about our surge capacity.
Making my rounds at the children’s hospital earlier this week, I saw that the boxes of gloves and other personal protective equipment were dwindling. This is a crisis for our vulnerable patients and health care workers alike. Protective equipment is only one of the places where supplies are falling short. At our large, 4,000-bed New York City hospital, we have 500 ventilators and 250 on backup reserve. If we are on track to match the scale of Covid-19 infections in Italy, then we are likely to run out of ventilators in New York. The anti-viral “treatments” we have for Covid-19 are experimental and many of them are hard to even get approved. Let me repeat. The sky is falling.
I say this not to panic anyone but to mobilize you. We need more equipment and we need it now. Specifically gloves, masks, eye protection and more ventilators. We need our technology friends to be making and testing prototypes to rig the ventilators that we do have to support more than one patient at a time. We need our labs channeling all of their efforts into combating this bug — that means vaccine research and antiviral treatment research, quickly.
We need hospitals to figure out how to nimbly and flexibly modify our existing practices to adapt to this virus and do it fast. Doctors across the globe are sharing information, protocols and strategies through social media, because our common publishing channels are too slow. Physician and surgeon mothers are coming together on Facebook groups to publish advice to parents and the public, to amplify our outrage, and to underscore the fear we feel for our most vulnerable patient populations, as well as ourselves and our families.
Please flatten the curve and stay at home, but please do not go into couch mode. Like everyone, I have moments where imagining the worst possible Covid-19 scenario steals my breath. But cowering in the dark places of our minds doesn’t help. Rather than private panic, we need public-spirited action. Those of us walking into the rooms of Covid-19-positive patients every day need you and your minds, your networks, your creative solutions, and your voices to be fighting for us. We might be the exhausted masked face trying to resuscitate you when you show up on the doorstep of our hospital. And when you do, I promise not to panic. I’ll use every ounce of my expertise to keep you alive. Please, do the same for us.
I was talking to a doctor yesterday about that subject , and he is said , a lot of people are less likely to get it twice , well not in one season , just like the common flu, , but it’s not a certainty, and not something you take for granted .
I was an idiot about this situation and posted a blatantly ignorant and stupid post about this situation less than 3 weeks ago. I was staggeringly wrong. The likes of TOO and LTRTR have nailed this from the start and I apologise to TOO for calling him out as too alarmist. This is a massive crisis that will cost lives (not just the virus taking them) , livelyhoods and take years to recover from if people don't do the right thing. The more people decide they can keep socialising, ignore travel restrictions etc the more we condemn 00's if not 000's of older people to death in this country alone. I can understand people thinking this is not that bad and we should be able to do what we want but by continuing to gp about your life as normal is condemning someones dad, mum, grandfather, grandmother to death. Think about that when you decide to have a BBQ or social gathering over the next couple of months. Not getting on top of this sooner will mean longer restrictions which will mean more businesses closing, more people out of jobs and increased social unrest. This is an umitigated disaster (socially/economicially) and anyone who thinks otherwise is an idiot.
A lot of the damage must have been done early. Australia needs to take this *smile* seriously.
With Italy’s older population this heart breaking to hear.
We have an aging population and I just hope these measures in place by our PM & States keeps them safe as this must be such scary time for them!
They went into shut down too late. What's our government doing? It should be complete shut down. No schools, no footy, no gatherings full stop.
We all love our footy but it should be cancelled. The players aren't in danger but their parents, grand parent, elderly and health compromised friends / family are.
