Coronavirus

[Sintiger]

It will be interesting to see if the state government sticks to its 5 cases average over 14 days. I can’t find where I read it but evidently the 14 day average outside those linked to aged care is already below 5.

Probably depends on whether they are workers or residents but many have been saying for a while now that whilst the actual number has significance it’s the community transmission numbers that are the really important ones.

 

[Ridley]

8 new cases today; 3 deaths.

But probably the more important number in view of us trying to get back to a version of normality is the hundreds of *smile* on St.Kilda beach not wearing masks or social distancing. Selfish *smile* arseholes

If they want to give the authorities an excuse to keep us locked down there it is.

 

[tigertim]

8 new cases today; 3 deaths.

But probably the more important number in view of us trying to get back to a version of normality is the hundreds of *smile* on St.Kilda beach not wearing masks or social distancing. Selfish *smile* arseholes

If they want to give the authorities an excuse to keep us locked down there it is.

Infuriating. Dumb ducks.

 

[Ridley]

Close the *smile* beaches Andrews!!

 

[Althom]

Close the *smile* beaches Andrews!!

But Dan isn't involved in any decisions.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

8 new cases today; 3 deaths.

But probably the more important number in view of us trying to get back to a version of normality is the hundreds of *smile* on St.Kilda beach not wearing masks or social distancing. Selfish *smile* arseholes

If they want to give the authorities an excuse to keep us locked down there it is.

It's human nature really, to think we're nearly at the end and take the foot off the pedal. But dumb, dumb, dumb.

 

[Sintiger]

But Dan isn't involved in any decisions.

Seriously ?

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Close the *smile* beaches Andrews!!

Dan is shaky and wary of public confrontation. If the public revolts, his party will take him down. It isn't a dictatorship where he can have his enemies killed.

 

[Coburgtiger]

I'm not sure there's any reason to be worried about people on beaches. I doubt anyone has caught it at the beach.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

I'm not sure there's any reason to be worried about people on beaches. I doubt anyone has caught it at the beach.

They're probably not catching it on a golf course either, but it's not allowed. TBH I don't even know if beachgoers are breaking any laws. Clarification would be useful, otherwise send in the cops to do their job.

 

[Coburgtiger]

They're probably not catching it on a golf course either, but it's not allowed. TBH I don't even know if beachgoers are breaking any laws. Clarification would be useful, otherwise send in the cops to do their job.

It depends on the situation, I didn't see it, but it's entirely possible they weren't breaking any rules.

The nature of this situation means some things are going to be arbitrary and inconsistent.

I was looking forward to having a tiger supporting mate come over to sit in my backyard and watch the game last night, but Dan said backyards don't count as outside. At first I thought "What the hell? What's the difference to all those people sitting in the park? It makes no sense." And I was annoyed.

Then I slowly came around to, "Yeah I guess that makes things easier to police and stops things from escalating."

So I've kinda got two hats on when looking at these restrictions. The 'fairness/consistency' hat says "Screw you guys for sitting on a beach." The infectious disease hat says "Eh. Whatever."

 

[Ridley]

I'm not sure there's any reason to be worried about people on beaches. I doubt anyone has caught it at the beach.

Okay so why do we all have to wear masks whilst taking our dogs for a walk around the block? Where we might not even pass within 10 metres of another person. Would also be very confident that there is no way all of those people live within 5km of the beach.

It’s the attitude of these people that stinks. They think they’re above the law. What they want to do is more important than anything else. That attitude could well lead to major issues when we do eventually open up. The rules won’t apply to them apparently. They will all gather in massive groups and have indoor parties and we could end up right back where we were in July and August.

*smile* em all. Selfish *smile*.

 

[jb03]

The cold weather has been the main reason the lockdown has been successful.

BTW, i think if that reporter was female the "kissee" would be charged with assault.

 

[Ridley]

It depends on the situation, I didn't see it, but it's entirely possible they weren't breaking any rules.

They were breaking plenty of rules. No masks, no social distancing, some admitted they were further than 5km from home. And the reporter was surrounded by people and one, without a mask, kissed him on the cheek.

But don’t walk your dog without a mask

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

They were breaking plenty of rules. No masks, no social distancing, some admitted they were further than 5km from home. And the reporter was surrounded by people and one, without a mask, kissed him on the cheek.

But don’t walk your dog without a mask

These people are also less likely to get tested if they have mild symptoms. Not hard to see history repeating.

 

[22nd Man]

It depends on the situation, I didn't see it, but it's entirely possible they weren't breaking any rules.

The nature of this situation means some things are going to be arbitrary and inconsistent.

I was looking forward to having a tiger supporting mate come over to sit in my backyard and watch the game last night, but Dan said backyards don't count as outside. At first I thought "What the hell? What's the difference to all those people sitting in the park? It makes no sense." And I was annoyed.

Then I slowly came around to, "Yeah I guess that makes things easier to police and stops things from escalating."

So I've kinda got two hats on when looking at these restrictions. The 'fairness/consistency' hat says "Screw you guys for sitting on a beach." The infectious disease hat says "Eh. Whatever."

You sound torn.

 

[Coburgtiger]

You sound torn.

I actually just saw some of the footage of the peanuts on the beach.

Much worse than I thought.

Sounds like it's gonna be cracked down on which is good.

 

[DavidSSS]

While it is the case that the virus appears to spread indoors far more than outdoors, it also remains the case that we do not definitively know the probability of spreading the virus outdoors. This is especially the case when we know some people are more contagious than others.

The restrictions have got us this far, it is critical they are followed to get us to near zero infections and virtually zero community transmission.

Nice to see the number under 10 again - my graphs look a little different now as I got a new laptop and am back on windows and in Excel rather than LibreOffice, previous laptop had an AMD A9 CPU - avoid, bloody slow.



Plus, the numbers, updated this afternoon:

Date	New Infections	7 Day Trailing ave	5 Day Centred ave	14 Day Trailing ave
28 September 2020	9	11.43	10.80	18.79
29 September 2020	10	10.86	9.00	16.57
30 September 2020	14	11.29	9.60	15.79
1 October 2020	7	10.43		13.07
2 October 2020	8	9.86		12.21

Let's see how we go next week and maybe we can have someone around to watch the Grand Final.

DS

 

[Ridley]

Yet more young *smile* on St.Kilda beach today. It appears the vast majority are not social distancing or wearing masks. Just close the *smile* beaches and arrest the selfish *smile*.

 

[Coburgtiger]

While it is the case that the virus appears to spread indoors far more than outdoors, it also remains the case that we do not definitively know the probability of spreading the virus outdoors. This is especially the case when we know some people are more contagious than others.

The restrictions have got us this far, it is critical they are followed to get us to near zero infections and virtually zero community transmission.

Nice to see the number under 10 again - my graphs look a little different now as I got a new laptop and am back on windows and in Excel rather than LibreOffice, previous laptop had an AMD A9 CPU - avoid, bloody slow.

View attachment 10667

Plus, the numbers, updated this afternoon:

Date	New Infections	7 Day Trailing ave	5 Day Centred ave	14 Day Trailing ave
28 September 2020	9	11.43	10.80	18.79
29 September 2020	10	10.86	9.00	16.57
30 September 2020	14	11.29	9.60	15.79
1 October 2020	7	10.43		13.07
2 October 2020	8	9.86		12.21

Let's see how we go next week and maybe we can have someone around to watch the Grand Final.

DS

We do know a lot about how enveloped viruses work generally, and we've learned a lot about this coronavirus. It's pretty clear that the chance of catching covid outdoors is very low, though that's assuming some level of physical distancing. If you're breathing/spitting/rubbing on people it doesn't matter either way.

But sitting a few metres away from someone on a beach would be extremely low risk.

And, although there is some level of difference in the symptoms people present with, and therefore the amount/concentration of viral particles being shed (coughing/sneezing etc.) the "superspreader" events seem to be moreover a result of behaviour (e.g. Someone at their most infectious spending a few hours coughing in a small room with a lot of other people.)