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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
Wow, the positivity rates in the USA mentioned in that article are terrible, what was it 22% in Wisconsin. What a mess.
Back under 10 today is a good sign and hopefully the deaths will now trend right down with the lower rate of new infections now lasting a couple of weeks.
Here's what it looks like today:
And, the numbers:
Still jumping around a bit as expected. The number of active cases is way down and unknown cases is getting lower. Hopefully community transmission can get right down and we can reduce the restrictions in a couple of weeks.
DS
Back under 10 today is a good sign and hopefully the deaths will now trend right down with the lower rate of new infections now lasting a couple of weeks.
Here's what it looks like today:
And, the numbers:
| Date | New Infections | 7 Day Trailing ave | 5 Day Centred ave | 14 Day Trailing ave |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 September 2020 | 14 | 11.29 | 9.60 | 15.79 |
| 1 October 2020 | 7 | 10.43 | 10.20 | 13.07 |
| 2 October 2020 | 8 | 9.86 | 10.00 | 12.21 |
| 3 October 2020 | 12 | 9.29 | 12.14 | |
| 4 October 2020 | 9 | 9.86 | 12.00 |
Still jumping around a bit as expected. The number of active cases is way down and unknown cases is getting lower. Hopefully community transmission can get right down and we can reduce the restrictions in a couple of weeks.
DS
Yes it’s pretty ugly over there and I suspect there are a lot more infections and deaths than reported.
Their ability to know who has died or even who has it won’t be particularly sophisticated in some parts of the country
Good news about high school kids being back very soon.
I'm still nervous about it when I put my microbiologist hat on, but as a teacher I am stoked.
Remote learning has been the hardest/worst thing I've done in my professional life. Can't wait to get back into a classroom. The students were absolutely ecstatic when I told them today. First time I've seen genuine excitement from my year ten's in 3 months, and it made my heart lift.
I'm still nervous about it when I put my microbiologist hat on, but as a teacher I am stoked.
Remote learning has been the hardest/worst thing I've done in my professional life. Can't wait to get back into a classroom. The students were absolutely ecstatic when I told them today. First time I've seen genuine excitement from my year ten's in 3 months, and it made my heart lift.
I know we've has some differences on this thread (and the george thread!) but I hope it all goes safely & well for you and your students CT.
Happy to have my kids returning to school too and they are so excited about it.
Yeah my sister is a grade 6 teacher and she has hated it. Can’t wait to get back next week.
Has there been a decision made as to exactly when years 8 -10 go back? I believe year 7 is back next Monday.
26th still? *smile* that’s another 3 weeks
. Thought that might have got brought forward.Anyway cheers Tim.
We certainly are having problems getting the numbers consistently down below 10. It appears they know of a couple of clusters, but of course, knowing about a cluster and stopping the virus from spreading around within a cluster f cases and possibly further are 2 different things.
Here's how it looks today:
By the numbers:
You can see the 5 and 7 day averages sitting around 10 but refusing to go down any further. The 14 day average will do the same unless the numbers drop again. The 14 Day average just moved past the last day of new infections over 20 (28 on 21 Sept) so the fall in the 14 day average can only happen if we consistently see numbers near or below 10.
Bloody hard to nail down the next drop to get it really low. One saving grace is that the active cases keeps dropping, 227 last night. Less active cases means less contagious people to spread the virus. Just have to keep doing the right thing I suppose.
DS
Here's how it looks today:
By the numbers:
| Date | New Infections | 7 Day Trailing ave | 5 Day Centred ave | 14 Day Trailing ave |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 October 2020 | 7 | 10.43 | 10.00 | 13.07 |
| 2 October 2020 | 9 | 10.00 | 9.80 | 12.29 |
| 3 October 2020 | 10 | 9.14 | 10.00 | 12.07 |
| 4 October 2020 | 9 | 9.71 | 11.93 | |
| 5 October 2020 | 15 | 10.57 | 11.00 |
You can see the 5 and 7 day averages sitting around 10 but refusing to go down any further. The 14 day average will do the same unless the numbers drop again. The 14 Day average just moved past the last day of new infections over 20 (28 on 21 Sept) so the fall in the 14 day average can only happen if we consistently see numbers near or below 10.
Bloody hard to nail down the next drop to get it really low. One saving grace is that the active cases keeps dropping, 227 last night. Less active cases means less contagious people to spread the virus. Just have to keep doing the right thing I suppose.
DS
Not looking great. Also have to question people’s judgment. The cafe in Kilmore has a new case due to someone in Melbourne being a selfish idiot. I think the 5km radius will be lifted to say 10km but that will be it to protect regional areas.
we are not gonna meet the 14 day average of 5 by October 19. you can take that to the bank. I think we're gonna have to rely on community transmission, mystery cases and general active cases to continue to decrease for us to move to step 3.
clearly this last effort at reduction is the hardest. very frustrating.
clearly this last effort at reduction is the hardest. very frustrating.
If they’re able to identify this tool I trust he,ll get the $4997 fine for being more than 5klm from home.
Apparently the person was given permission to travel to see family on the basis that they were a carer or something similar. They know who it is; Sutton admitted that the other day.
Yeah they were caring for someone in Kilmore but they didn't have permission to dine at the premises (only take-away). The newspaper mentions that the same person "triggered a virus alert at White Line Tyres in Benalla"., Long way from Kilmore.
I read it is they were just passing through Kilmore on the way to somewhere else when they decided to stop and eat at the cafe; this was clearly against regulations. Given the person was from Melbourne they were only allowed take away.
That's what Sutton said at this morning's presser. If you're from Melbourne the rules for Melbourne travel with you no matter whereabouts in Victoria you are given permission to go. I wonder if that was explained to the person involved?
Would have to be surely.
Only 3 cases left in regional Victoria. Would love to see regional Victoria given some form of green light to ease restrictions more in the next 2 weeks assuming zero cases.
