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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
A comparison of New York and Madrid coronavirus responses and the dangers of opening too early:
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Thread by @_MiguelHernan on Thread Reader App
@_MiguelHernan: 1/ Look at the shape of these curves. New York and Madrid had similar epidemics until they spectacularly diverged. In March, both cities were caught by surprise and shut down because of #COVID19. In ...…
threadreaderapp.com
Contact tracing of huge importance. Reduced indoor numbers. Go figure.A comparison of New York and Madrid coronavirus responses and the dangers of opening too early:
Thread by @_MiguelHernan on Thread Reader App
@_MiguelHernan: 1/ Look at the shape of these curves. New York and Madrid had similar epidemics until they spectacularly diverged. In March, both cities were caught by surprise and shut down because of #COVID19. In ...…
One of the epidemiologists who provides research for the government, Tony Blakely, believes the target of 5 new cases a day to get too stage 2 and allow small businesses to open is way too stringent. I agree with him.
Hopefully the numbers keep going the right way and Andrews and Sutton can be flexible enough to review. Andrews’ obstinance will be a road block though.
Tony Blakely seems very flaky to me, throughout all of this he has been pushing for elimination the entire way through, now he says the restrictions are too onerous. Which side of the fence does he actually want to sit on?
More details about Tony Blakely thoughts here.
www.abc.net.au
Opposition puts forward alternative for Melbourne as modeller labels roadmap target 'too stringent'
Victoria's Opposition calls on Daniel Andrews to ditch his roadmap out of lockdown and return to stage 3 restrictions for Melbourne, as one of the authors of the Government's modelling says a key roadmap target is "too stringent".
www.abc.net.au
Yeah, and New York is more crowded than Madrid from memory. Great effort by NY, not so good from Madrid. Let's all learn from this. Get the numbers down and keep testing, keep tracing contacts, got to keep up the effort.
Speaking of numbers, not bad today:
Plus, the numbers for the last few says (already updated by DHHS):
7 and 5 day averages under 50 is good. Hopefully regional Vic can open up soon but they will need some way to keep Melburnians from leaving Melbourne. Got to keep control of this.
With lower numbers contact tracing is easier too so they had better be getting on with this.
Don't think they should open parts of Melbourne up, demonstrably failed last time, can see no reason it will work. Keep the curfew too, the idea is to stop people visiting each other, this is vital.
DS
Speaking of numbers, not bad today:
Plus, the numbers for the last few says (already updated by DHHS):
| Date | New Infections | 7 Day trailing ave | 5 day centred ave | 14 day trailing ave |
|---|---|---|---|---|
7 September 2020 | 49 | 70.57 | 53.60 | 85.14 |
8 September 2020 | 70 | 68.14 | 49.20 | 79.93 |
9 September 2020 | 49 | 59.43 | 49.00 | 75.50 |
10 September 2020 | 40 | 54.29 | | 70.57 |
11 September 2020 | 37 | 49.29 | | 66.79 |
7 and 5 day averages under 50 is good. Hopefully regional Vic can open up soon but they will need some way to keep Melburnians from leaving Melbourne. Got to keep control of this.
With lower numbers contact tracing is easier too so they had better be getting on with this.
Don't think they should open parts of Melbourne up, demonstrably failed last time, can see no reason it will work. Keep the curfew too, the idea is to stop people visiting each other, this is vital.
DS
Andrews and Sutton today said they would review the targets after comparing the actual results with what the modelling predicted.
More details about Tony Blakely thoughts here.
Opposition puts forward alternative for Melbourne as modeller labels roadmap target 'too stringent'
Victoria's Opposition calls on Daniel Andrews to ditch his roadmap out of lockdown and return to stage 3 restrictions for Melbourne, as one of the authors of the Government's modelling says a key roadmap target is "too stringent".
So does Tony Blakely still want elimination?
Stated this back in July.
"This will change the dialogue and zeitgeist. For example, when we get down to ten cases per day, rather than clamouring for opening up, Victorians should be excitedly saying “we are getting close, let’s keep going in lockdown and knock it on the head.”
Victoria – are you up for elimination?
Australia's Victoria State should aim to eliminate COVID-19 with its new lockdown in response to this fresh outbreak, argues a University of Melbourne expert
pursuit.unimelb.edu.au
Now saying that 10 cases is enough to open up. He's constantly (every time I've seen him anyway) talked about elimination. Now you get a Michael O'Brien document stating a totally different viewpoint from Blakely which seems strange.
Personal view is we should start opening up at 10 cases per day, but seems strange that this guy has been so focused on the one strategy and as soon as a document like this comes out, changes his tune.
Top Cops description of antivaxer/chemtrails/Elvis alive/Q Anon protesters
On Friday, the state’s assistant commissioner of police, Luke Cornelius, said of the protests, “I feel a bit like a dog returning to eat his own vomit”.
cracked me up
I reckon Luke must be doing poetry for beginners at TAFE by nights.
Its a real shame he didn't say pig
On Friday, the state’s assistant commissioner of police, Luke Cornelius, said of the protests, “I feel a bit like a dog returning to eat his own vomit”.
cracked me up
I reckon Luke must be doing poetry for beginners at TAFE by nights.
Its a real shame he didn't say pig
As
I think it depends on where the infections are and what the level of community transmission is. For example of it is 10-15 and all of them are in aged care then the restrictions could be eased and then concentrate on aged care.
14 day moving average dropped below 60 today so great news. Still 1 big number to drop out over 100 (3rd September).
Good news as well around the positive test rate, last 4 days all being below 0.3% (0.27%, 0.29%, 0.23% and today 0.20%). Getting a lot closer to the other states positive test rates.
Good news as well around the positive test rate, last 4 days all being below 0.3% (0.27%, 0.29%, 0.23% and today 0.20%). Getting a lot closer to the other states positive test rates.
As Sintiger says, they will be looking at where the cases are and at the community transmission data to determine whether we open up. The roadmap was very conservative, it was this way so they could ease restrictions earlier if the data justified it, in essence over deliver with little chance of under-delivering. Also, by giving specific new case numbers as triggers to open up they kept it simple. They can then adjust this by taking into account more of the specifics but as an initial roadmap, simplicity gives more certainty - again, the options here mean they can bring forward opening up but are far less likely to have to stay closed for longer.
Today we see another decent number, let's keep it going:
The numbers for the last 5 days:
Trends looking like they are going in the right direction, expect some up and down in the 5 day centred ave I reckon as it is just more volatile being a shorter time period.
DS
Today we see another decent number, let's keep it going:
The numbers for the last 5 days:
| Date | New Infections | 7 Day trailing ave | 5 day centred ave | 14 day trailing ave |
|---|---|---|---|---|
8 September 2020 | 70 | 68.14 | 49.20 | 79.93 |
9 September 2020 | 49 | 59.43 | 49.00 | 75.50 |
10 September 2020 | 40 | 54.29 | 47.40 | 70.57 |
11 September 2020 | 37 | 49.29 | | 66.79 |
12 September 2020 | 41 | 46.29 | | 62.00 |
Trends looking like they are going in the right direction, expect some up and down in the 5 day centred ave I reckon as it is just more volatile being a shorter time period.
DS
This is some disturbing data in terms of global death projections... the assumption being that we are heading into winter in the northern hemisphere and things will get worse. With this site you can pick different scenarios - current no change projection, mandates easing, and universal masks. Even current projections show 2.7 million deaths globally by Jan 1, 2021 - we are still under 1 mill. now.
covid19.healthdata.org
The USA? Currently still below 200k dead, looking at 400k dead by Jan 1, 2021 on conservative projections.
covid19.healthdata.org
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
covid19.healthdata.org
The USA? Currently still below 200k dead, looking at 400k dead by Jan 1, 2021 on conservative projections.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
covid19.healthdata.org
Perspective..
www.sbs.com.au
France reports more than 10,000 new coronavirus cases in one day as 'yellow vest' protesters return to the streets
The new figure comes as French police tussled with 'yellow vest' protesters who returned to the streets in Paris.
www.sbs.com.au
Remember when Trump said it would be zero?
Remember when he said it will top out at 50..maybe 60k?
The United States just passed 200,000 dead Americans from this virus.
200,000 dead people.
Remember when he said it will top out at 50..maybe 60k?
The United States just passed 200,000 dead Americans from this virus.
200,000 dead people.
