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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
no probs. interesting that the Roy Morgan data and the LNP polling wildly different.
The LNP one was a targeted one focussing on only 5 LNP favoured seats. Something like that.
What do the knowledgeable people on this site think the time frame will be on reaching the goal of getting a less than 5 case average over 14 days so the curfew can end. Is it like loosing weight where those last few kg's are the hardest one to loose?
I'm certainly far less knowledgeable than others but IMO the target of less than 5 cases over 14 days is too stringent and will be very difficult to achieve. We have made good progress but as you can see with David's figures above the daily new cases are stubbornly remaining in the 30s and 40s. That will be enough to activate step 2 but really what does that change? Prep to Grade 2 kids will be back at school as will Year 11 & 12 students. You still can't travel outside a 5km radius of your home although you can meet with outside in a group of up to 5 people from a maximum of 2 households. Big deal. All small business will basically still be closed and all people employed by small businesses still out of work or on Jobkeeper. That is some consolation for the employees but no consolation for the owners of those businesses. They still can't earn a living.
I do hope that the authorities can get their *smile* together on contact tracing so we can maybe relax restrictions and get small business back to work when the cases are at around 10-15 a day. That is a similar level to where NSW and they seem to be handling it very well. It can be done; it's just a matter of whether the Victorian authorities have the capability.
Yep, I reckon Ridley is correct, getting the numbers right down will be hard although the transmission rate is less than 1 from what I have seen and that means numbers should go down. The contact tracing is important for this, but I would say possibly more important once the numbers are down so we can keep them down.
Zero deaths is an excellent outcome and although the numbers are jumping around a little the trend is still down:
The actual numbers for the last 5 days, bearing in mind the adjustments to previous days are not out yet:
All 3 averages going down is a good sign.
The 14 day trailing average goes back to 1 September, so we lose 87 (1 Sept) and 110 (2 Sept) in the next couple of days which means it should go down.
Regional Victoria relaxing restrictions now, which is good as, if the whole of Victoria outside of Melbourne has very low numbers of new infections, it should be manageable. Melbourne heading towards this . . . hopefully.
DS
Zero deaths is an excellent outcome and although the numbers are jumping around a little the trend is still down:
The actual numbers for the last 5 days, bearing in mind the adjustments to previous days are not out yet:
| Date | New Infections | 7 Day trailing ave | 5 Day centred ave | 14 Day trailing ave |
|---|---|---|---|---|
10 September 2020 | 40 | 54.00 | 46.80 | 70.21 |
11 September 2020 | 36 | 48.86 | 39.80 | 66.36 |
12 September 2020 | 41 | 45.86 | 38.80 | 61.57 |
13 September 2020 | 35 | 45.43 | | 59.00 |
14 September 2020 | 42 | 44.43 | | 57.43 |
All 3 averages going down is a good sign.
The 14 day trailing average goes back to 1 September, so we lose 87 (1 Sept) and 110 (2 Sept) in the next couple of days which means it should go down.
Regional Victoria relaxing restrictions now, which is good as, if the whole of Victoria outside of Melbourne has very low numbers of new infections, it should be manageable. Melbourne heading towards this . . . hopefully.
DS
Yep David and Posh do some great work on this thread.
Another 42 cases today but sadly 8 deaths. These new case numbers are proving quite stubborn. It's a bit disheartening that after 6 plus weeks of total lock down we are still getting this many new cases every day; really thought we'd be in single figures by now. The only potential positive might be to see how many of the new cases are related to aged care and health care workers. Hopefully the numbers outside of those areas are quite low. As it stands under the current guidelines it is looking very difficult to meet the requirements to get to step 3 on October 26. Hopefully the authorities can revisit this and we can open up safely a la NSW.
Traditionally Wednesdays have been the highest day so I'm hopeful this is a positive figure. Last week it was 73.
14 day trailing average dropped under 50 today.
14 day trailing average dropped under 50 today.
Good point Oldie. Hopefully we can start seeing numbers in the 20s very soon.
If it's still this high in a week I'll be worried. It's not a fast process though is it.
42 today, same as yesterday, 14 day average is down but I don't know where they get their numbers from as I have it above 50 (remembering the figures I use are for Victoria, more below).
So here is what I get today:
Trends still going fine, 5 day centred average rises by a tiny bit but it responds to shorter term influences.
The numbers I get are as follows:
If you look at the numbers published on the ABC website for the 14 day average, as supplied by the DHHS, the Melbourne 14 day average is 49.6 and the regional Victoria 14 day average is 3.5. That adds up to 53.1. A little lower than the 54.07 I get. Not a big difference and the most important thing is that the trend is the same. What gets me is that it simply does not agree with averaging the numbers from 2 to 15 September published here by the DHHS. Some consistency would be nice.
The latest data on that DHHS page is to 14 September and the active cases look to be about to drop below 1,000 which is also a good sign. They are at 1,040 on 14 September, down from a peak of 6,788.
The reported numbers tend to be higher mid week so we'll see what happens tomorrow.
DS
So here is what I get today:
Trends still going fine, 5 day centred average rises by a tiny bit but it responds to shorter term influences.
The numbers I get are as follows:
| Date | New Infections | 7 Day trailing ave | 5 day centred ave | 14 day trailing ave |
|---|---|---|---|---|
11 September 2020 | 35 | 48.71 | 39.40 | 66.29 |
12 September 2020 | 41 | 45.71 | 38.40 | 61.50 |
13 September 2020 | 34 | 45.14 | 38.80 | 58.86 |
14 September 2020 | 42 | 44.14 | | 57.29 |
15 September 2020 | 42 | 40.14 | | 54.07 |
If you look at the numbers published on the ABC website for the 14 day average, as supplied by the DHHS, the Melbourne 14 day average is 49.6 and the regional Victoria 14 day average is 3.5. That adds up to 53.1. A little lower than the 54.07 I get. Not a big difference and the most important thing is that the trend is the same. What gets me is that it simply does not agree with averaging the numbers from 2 to 15 September published here by the DHHS. Some consistency would be nice.
The latest data on that DHHS page is to 14 September and the active cases look to be about to drop below 1,000 which is also a good sign. They are at 1,040 on 14 September, down from a peak of 6,788.
The reported numbers tend to be higher mid week so we'll see what happens tomorrow.
DS
Neil Mitchell: The three possible reasons for the Premier's claim ADF support wasn't offered
An inquiry into Victoria’s bungled hotel quarantine system yesterday revealed Victoria’s top public servant was directly offered Australian Defence Force assistance for hotel security. A series of emails released by the inquiry show the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet secretary, Philip...
www.3aw.com.au
Have a listen without political bias and tell me what you think happened?
I think he is lying as he has been working everyday long hours, sidelining his ministers at every opportunity and has been giving daily briefings on the happenings in our State.
It doesn’t cast Sargeant Schulz in a great light after all his claims that ADF help wasn’t offered.Neil Mitchell: The three possible reasons for the Premier's claim ADF support wasn't offered
An inquiry into Victoria’s bungled hotel quarantine system yesterday revealed Victoria’s top public servant was directly offered Australian Defence Force assistance for hotel security. A series of emails released by the inquiry show the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet secretary, Philip...
Have a listen without political bias and tell me what you think happened?
I think he is lying as he has been working everyday long hours, sidelining his ministers at every opportunity and has been giving daily briefings on the happenings in our State.
Chinese defector virologist Dr Li-Meng Yan publishes report claiming COVID-19 was made in a lab
Doctor Li-Meng Yan, a scientist who studied some of the available data on COVID-19 has published her claims on Zenodo, an open access digital platform. She wrote that she believed COVID-19 could have been “conveniently created” within a lab setting over a period of just six months, and “SARS-CoV-2 shows biological characteristics that are inconsistent with a naturally occurring, zoonotic virus”.
Early reports of the origin of the coronavirus, or “spillover event”, were that the virus jumped from animal to human within a wet market in the Chinese city of Wuhan sometime in late 2019.
“The natural origin theory, although widely accepted, lacks substantial support,” Dr Yan writes in the report.
“The alternative theory that the virus may have come from a research laboratory is, however, strictly censored on peer-reviewed scientific journals. Nonetheless, SARS-CoV-2 shows biological characteristics that are inconsistent with a naturally occurring, zoonotic virus.”
Dr Yan’s paper, co-authored by three other doctors, is titled: ‘Unusual Features of the SARS-CoV-2 Genome Suggesting Sophisticated Laboratory Modification Rather Than Natural Evolution and Delineation of Its Probable Synthetic Route’.
Dr Yan claimed her and her team's scientific findings were suppressed, and they were told only to report cases linked to the Huanan seafood market. After becoming fearful of her safety, she fled China on a flight bound for Los Angeles in late April.
Other scientists have disputed Dr Yan’s claim, including a report from Live Science in March, which definitively claimed “SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus”.
Dr Yan’s newly published report echoes claims she made in a recent TV interview, when she appeared on the British talk show Loose Women.
During the interview, she said the coronavirus “comes from the lab — the lab in Wuhan and the lab is controlled by China’s government”.
She also said widespread reports that the virus originated last year from a wet market in Wuhan are “a smoke screen”.
Doctor Li-Meng Yan, a scientist who studied some of the available data on COVID-19 has published her claims on Zenodo, an open access digital platform. She wrote that she believed COVID-19 could have been “conveniently created” within a lab setting over a period of just six months, and “SARS-CoV-2 shows biological characteristics that are inconsistent with a naturally occurring, zoonotic virus”.
Early reports of the origin of the coronavirus, or “spillover event”, were that the virus jumped from animal to human within a wet market in the Chinese city of Wuhan sometime in late 2019.
“The natural origin theory, although widely accepted, lacks substantial support,” Dr Yan writes in the report.
“The alternative theory that the virus may have come from a research laboratory is, however, strictly censored on peer-reviewed scientific journals. Nonetheless, SARS-CoV-2 shows biological characteristics that are inconsistent with a naturally occurring, zoonotic virus.”
Dr Yan’s paper, co-authored by three other doctors, is titled: ‘Unusual Features of the SARS-CoV-2 Genome Suggesting Sophisticated Laboratory Modification Rather Than Natural Evolution and Delineation of Its Probable Synthetic Route’.
Dr Yan claimed her and her team's scientific findings were suppressed, and they were told only to report cases linked to the Huanan seafood market. After becoming fearful of her safety, she fled China on a flight bound for Los Angeles in late April.
Other scientists have disputed Dr Yan’s claim, including a report from Live Science in March, which definitively claimed “SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus”.
Dr Yan’s newly published report echoes claims she made in a recent TV interview, when she appeared on the British talk show Loose Women.
During the interview, she said the coronavirus “comes from the lab — the lab in Wuhan and the lab is controlled by China’s government”.
She also said widespread reports that the virus originated last year from a wet market in Wuhan are “a smoke screen”.
This has been my personal belief from the beginning but obviously hard to be certain and we were told otherwise.
I thought the wet market claim sounded like a fantasy and still do.
However there is much in the way of politics here so who can really know. What I do know is the forces of social engineering and control will make anyone who questions the publicly presented view to be called a ' denier '.
Dont like our current public discussion anymore. ....where is freedom of thought and opinion without abuse ?...mini rant over!
I thought the wet market claim sounded like a fantasy and still do.
However there is much in the way of politics here so who can really know. What I do know is the forces of social engineering and control will make anyone who questions the publicly presented view to be called a ' denier '.
Dont like our current public discussion anymore. ....where is freedom of thought and opinion without abuse ?...mini rant over!
Started reading her wikipedia bio. Other than being based in Hong Kong when this all started, the bio is littered with Fox News interviews & Fox News comments. I think it's best until her reports have gone through the peer review stage before taking onboard her take on things. Especially as HKU, where she worked, dispute that she ever worked on some of the things she says she worked on.
