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Coronavirus

Numbers down again. More positive news. Restrictions should be eased again in regional Victoria later in the week.
 
14 day average for Metro Melbourne is at 54.4.

Moving to step 2 on September 28 is a fait accompli. Sutton said yesterday projections are suggesting we'll be below 30 by that date.

For us to move to step 3 on October 26, the 14 day average needs to reduce by 1.19 per day. Very achievable.
 
sounds like BS to me.

Labor unrest grows as Daniel Andrews botches crisis management (paywalled)

"At the end of last week an almost unthinkable event took place – a number of Victorian ALP government members counted the numbers to mount a challenge to the disastrous leadership of premier Daniel Andrews.

They got close but in the end the numbers were not there and now everyone is complete denial. Two forces drove the numbers canvass. The horror of the ALP’s political polls (confirmed by the Liberals) shows a 20 per cent swing against the Andrews government. If the Victorian swing extends to the local council election next month – as seems likely – then a generation of ALP up and comers will be wiped out. And secondly, a large number of well meaning human beings, who are also ALP Victorian politicians, know they have to tell their children and grandchildren that, unlike politicians in any other state, via their bad policies and woeful administration they caused or contributed to the death of hundreds of people."
 
"At the end of last week an almost unthinkable event took place – a number of Victorian ALP government members counted the numbers to mount a challenge to the disastrous leadership of premier Daniel Andrews.

what a load of crap. Murdoch Media at its best (worst) trying to cause instability. Which Nuffie wrote this piece? Rachel Baxendale or Alex White? :rotfl2
 
The recent comments by the VIC CHO regarding gyms has been disputed. If it is true that there are no known outbreaks and they have not been a known source of transmission what redress is there for the fitness industry?

This was posted by Tony Doherty of Dohertys Gym a few days ago. Hard to argue against.

I’ve held back but it’s time to speak out.
Please share and repost because we need to be heard.
We really need to reclassify gyms and fitness centres as an essential service.
Despite the incredible ignorance of the chief health officer, stating that gyms are ‘a high risk setting and that they cause outbreaks’. That is just not true.
Data collected by Fitness Australia across over 500 gyms in NSW that have reopened since June, show that there have been over 7 million visits without a single recorded case of community transmission.
Despite the ignorance of politicians and people that don’t work out, going to the gym is so much more than physical fitness.
It provides a coping mechanism for millions of Australians to keep their mental health in check, to keep depression and anxiety at bay. In many cases it is the single thread that holds so many people’s lives together.
Exercise obviously keeps you healthy and boosts your immune system.
There are so many reasons that make gyms safer, more hygienic and cleaner than the Victorian premier and his chief health officer could begin to understand.
From the contact tracing issue, we are so far ahead of every other industry.
Members swipe in with a fob that provides their name, phone number, photograph, address and date of birth. It tells us what time they enter the gym to the very minute. It also can trace every single person that is in the facility at any given time.
When we go to the supermarket or bottle shop, there is no identification check, not even a sign in system.
Compared to last time Victoria was able to have their businesses open, with restaurants shops etc.
We were able to enter shops with no check in. Cafes and restaurants by signing in on a clipboard. A clipbord not sanitised, with the same pen that everybody else used without the offer of hand sanitiser to follow.
When people enter our gyms they check-in and they have to sanitise their hands before they enter. Every machine or bench is 1.5m apart. Every second cardio machine is switched off and taped up so they can’t be used to adhere with social distancing.
We have hygiene stations everywhere, with disposable paper towel and hospital grade disinfectant. Members must wipe down every bench, handle, barbell and dumbbell after every single set.
We have been in the sweat business for a long time, hand sanitiser in our gyms has been standard for 12 years, not 12 weeks.
As an industry we have not been consulted, advised or considered.
I hope that someone in government gets to read this and at least reach out for an open discussion.
I am here for every gym owner, personal trainer and family business that has been decimated by this blatant and now targeted ignorance.
 
We should be getting more info on how/where people are getting the virus. They can contact trace to the point of knowing who has infected them, we should be getting more info on how they have been (or are likely to have been) infected. Is it mostly family members who live in the same house? How many transmissions have been in a work setting? How many end up completely unknown, and could be through surface contact when shopping etc?

We assume that the greatest risk as transmission is indoors in confined areas for extended periods of time - is that borne out by the actual infections?

Why aren't we getting more detailed info on this?
 
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The recent comments by the VIC CHO regarding gyms has been disputed. If it is true that there are no known outbreaks and they have not been a known source of transmission what redress is there for the fitness industry?

This was posted by Tony Doherty of Dohertys Gym a few days ago. Hard to argue against.

I’ve held back but it’s time to speak out.
Please share and repost because we need to be heard.
We really need to reclassify gyms and fitness centres as an essential service.
Despite the incredible ignorance of the chief health officer, stating that gyms are ‘a high risk setting and that they cause outbreaks’. That is just not true.
Data collected by Fitness Australia across over 500 gyms in NSW that have reopened since June, show that there have been over 7 million visits without a single recorded case of community transmission.
Despite the ignorance of politicians and people that don’t work out, going to the gym is so much more than physical fitness.
It provides a coping mechanism for millions of Australians to keep their mental health in check, to keep depression and anxiety at bay. In many cases it is the single thread that holds so many people’s lives together.
Exercise obviously keeps you healthy and boosts your immune system.
There are so many reasons that make gyms safer, more hygienic and cleaner than the Victorian premier and his chief health officer could begin to understand.
From the contact tracing issue, we are so far ahead of every other industry.
Members swipe in with a fob that provides their name, phone number, photograph, address and date of birth. It tells us what time they enter the gym to the very minute. It also can trace every single person that is in the facility at any given time.
When we go to the supermarket or bottle shop, there is no identification check, not even a sign in system.
Compared to last time Victoria was able to have their businesses open, with restaurants shops etc.
We were able to enter shops with no check in. Cafes and restaurants by signing in on a clipboard. A clipbord not sanitised, with the same pen that everybody else used without the offer of hand sanitiser to follow.
When people enter our gyms they check-in and they have to sanitise their hands before they enter. Every machine or bench is 1.5m apart. Every second cardio machine is switched off and taped up so they can’t be used to adhere with social distancing.
We have hygiene stations everywhere, with disposable paper towel and hospital grade disinfectant. Members must wipe down every bench, handle, barbell and dumbbell after every single set.
We have been in the sweat business for a long time, hand sanitiser in our gyms has been standard for 12 years, not 12 weeks.
As an industry we have not been consulted, advised or considered.
I hope that someone in government gets to read this and at least reach out for an open discussion.
I am here for every gym owner, personal trainer and family business that has been decimated by this blatant and now targeted ignorance.
Theres been so many bodies saying they should be an essential service. I heard the VACC claiming that mechanics car servicing should be, said that there’s 800,000 cars which haven’t been serviced since March and some of them could be unsafe. The guy from BIcycle Victoria said the same thing but for bikes. Jim’s mowing, dog groomers, pool cleaners now gyms. If every sector who claimed they should be an ES was granted such everybody would be open for business.
 
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I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't some murmuring in the ranks, imagine the crank emails and phone calls the local members of state parliament would be getting right now. I would be surprised if there was a realistic challenge mounted. Sounds like no, despite the hyperbole.

I am suprised that Gottliebsen is still going, must be old as the hills these days.
 
Labor unrest grows as Daniel Andrews botches crisis management (paywalled)

"At the end of last week an almost unthinkable event took place – a number of Victorian ALP government members counted the numbers to mount a challenge to the disastrous leadership of premier Daniel Andrews.

They got close but in the end the numbers were not there and now everyone is complete denial. Two forces drove the numbers canvass. The horror of the ALP’s political polls (confirmed by the Liberals) shows a 20 per cent swing against the Andrews government. If the Victorian swing extends to the local council election next month – as seems likely – then a generation of ALP up and comers will be wiped out. And secondly, a large number of well meaning human beings, who are also ALP Victorian politicians, know they have to tell their children and grandchildren that, unlike politicians in any other state, via their bad policies and woeful administration they caused or contributed to the death of hundreds of people."
What so many people fail to appreciate is that there are politics parties within political parties. That’s true for the liberals just as much as Labor.
There will absolutely be people in the Labor party who dislike Dan and are seeing if an opportunity exists to remove him.
The rest is garbage to me.
I’m not a great fan of the labor Govt in Victoria but compared to the rabble that is the LNP they look ok. Imagine having O’Brien as premier?
 
Theres been so many bodies saying they should be an essential service. I heard the VACC claiming that mechanics car servicing should be, said that there’s 800,000 cars which haven’t been serviced since March and some of them could be unsafe. The guy from BIcycle Victoria said the same thing but for bikes. Jim’s mowing, dog groomers, pool cleaners now gyms. If every sector who claimed they should be an ES was granted such everybody would be open for business.

Disregarding the notion of essential service, is what Sutton said fact or speculation? Are gyms large sources of infection/transmission of the virus?

I see NSW has it well under control, another 3 cases today with 2 from quarantine. A friend who lives there said life is almost like normal, no compulsory masks, restaraunts and pubs open (reduced numbers of course - 1 per 4 sqm rule)), up to 20 visitors at a house.

Given the experience of covid in VIC, why should I have faith that this gov't can manage a low case load like NSW has?
 
They're invisible so nobody knows if they're any good. I think a lot of people are imagining not having Dan as premier.

Here's some actual data.

Roy Morgan had him 70:30 positive approval (last Tuesday and Wednesday). Liberal party internal data was far less complimentary but we don't know much about their methods.

The Poll Bludger is a good site for AusPol political polling BTW

"Scattered accounts of opinion polling ahead of what looks like being a lean week for it, with both Newspoll and Essential Research entering an off-week in their respective cycles:


• Some seriously mixed signals coming out of Victoria, starting with Roy Morgan, who have published results of an SMS poll conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday from a sample of 2325 that records a 70-30 favourable split for Daniel Andrews’ performance as Premier. Respondents also split 63-37 against allowing restaurants, hotels and cafes to provide table service, 54-46 against ending the rule limiting travel to within 5 kilometres of a person’s home, 63-37 against an end to the 9pm curfew, although there is a 59-41 split in favour of allowing Melbourne residents to visit the homes of immediate family members, and a 76-24 split in favour of state government compensation for businesses forced to close.

• The contrast is provided by a Herald Sun report in Liberal internal polling by MediaReach of five marginal Victorian state seats, showing devastating swings against Labor. The Liberals are credited with leads of 70.6-29.4 in Bayswater (50.4-49.6 to Labor at the 2018 election), 68.0-32.0 in Hawthorn (50.4-49.6 to Labor), 54.5-45.5 in Monbulk (58.6-41.4), 54.9-45.1 in Mount Waverley (51.8-48.2) and 57.9-42.1 in South Barwon (54.6-45.4). Daniel Andrews is nonetheless said to have preferred premier leads over Michael O’Brien of 46-37 in South Barwon, 43-37 in Mount Waverley and 39-29 in Monbulk, with O’Brien leading 46-33 in Hawthorn and 37-33 in Bayswater. The polling was conducted on Tuesday from samples of between 523 and 694."


Mark McGowan is on 91% approval in WA.

Looked like Labor would lose the election in QLD this year but things have improved there for AP, narrow leads in marginals.

"Queensland

Polling of the marginal state seats of Currumbin, Mansfield and Aspley by YouGov for the Australian Conservation Foundation shows a combined two-party result of 52-48 for Labor, compared with an almost exact 50-50 for these three seats in 2017. The primary votes are Labor 37%, LNP 37%, Greens 10%, One Nation 4% and 10% don’t know, compared with 2017 election results of Labor 41.2%, LNP 38.4%, Greens 10.6% and One Nation 8.5%. The poll was conducted from August 17-19 and targeted 200 respondents in each of the three electorates."
 
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Election not for a while, opposition can't get any attention, governments will be judged on the aftermath. Murdoch media are just trying to make trouble, as thy always do for anyone who doesn't toe their right wing line. Nothing to see here.

As for the virus, good signs continue, let's hope they continue to continue:

COVID19 7 day ave 14092020.jpg

And the numbers for the last 5 days according to the DHHS numbers:


DateNew Infections7 Day trailing Ave5 Day centred Ave14 Day trailing Ave
9 September 2020​
47​
59.00​
48.40​
75.21​
10 September 2020​
40​
54.00​
46.80​
70.21​
11 September 2020​
36​
48.86​
39.80​
66.36​
12 September 2020​
41​
45.86​
61.57​
13 September 2020​
35​
45.43​
59.00​

No idea where the number quoted above for the 14 day trailing average comes from, certainly not from averaging the last 14 days of new infections according to the DHHS.

Too many different versions of the data around.

DS