Coronavirus

[TT33]

I think the parameters required for the move to step 3 are too onerous. To move to step 3, which as I understand will allow small business and shops to reopen with restrictions, we will need from 26 October, in metropolitan Melbourne less than an average of 5 daily cases state-wide (over the 14-day period prior) and less than five of unknown transmission during that time (state-wide total).

I really can not see how we will get to a 14 day average of less than 5 cases in that time frame. It will be very difficult, a pipe dream really. NSW is operating at an equivalent of stage 3 (probably less restrictions actually) with around 10-20 new cases a day. As long as we can get our *smile* together with contract tracing (it's not as if they haven't had enough time to sort that out) then current NSW levels is where we should be going to stage 3. This will let small business such as retail shops, cafes, restaurants, hairdressers, real estate agents, car yards etc open and get people back to work. These restrictions are killing small business and the people who own them and work in them. No way they can open at current levels but the number of 5 is way too onerous.

If Andrews and the authorities can get the contract tracing out we should be able to open when we get to current NSW levels. His target is way too conservative.

I think he has every reason to be conservative, if he lifts the restrictions too soon & we have a 3rd wave, all hell will break loose. Can you imagine the damage that'd be done to the economy. Then the dogs would be barking, that he did it too soon.
He's damned if he does & damned if he doesn't.

Imo now is not the time to weaken, stay the course & we've got a far better chance of restricting this thing.

 

[Ridley]

I think he has every reason to be conservative, if he lifts the restrictions too soon & we have a 3rd wave, all hell will break loose. Can you imagine the damage that'd be done to the economy. Then the dogs would be barking, that he did it too soon.
He's damned if he does & damned if he doesn't.

Imo now is not the time to weaken, stay the course & we've got a far better chance of restricting this thing.

I agree to a certain extent but his stage 3 targets are too onerous. 5 cases a day is a pipe dream at the moment. We need to model it on where NSW is now; around 10 cases a day. The lockdown is destroying small business and livelihoods. If we manage it properly we can open up similar to where NSW is at the moment.

I guess it begs the question; can we manage it properly? Past evidence indicates we can't and maybe Andrews is not so confident in his "my way or the highway" approach anymore.

 

[Ian4]

Active cases outside of healthcare and aged care now below 500 which is great news.

14 day average on covidlive.com.au is 72.4.

463 active cases outside of Aged Care and Healthcare. Awesome news.

Actually the 14 day average is even lower if you don't count regional

 

[Althom]

Haven't watched a Dan Andrews presser for a while and so disappointing to tune in today and see the media just agitating unimportant garbage with their questions.

Everyday occurance. No real time for Andrews but when he or his CMO get up and explain something in detail and at length it's almost like the media people present cannot understand words containing more than one syllable

 

[Baloo]

Everyday occurance. No real time for Andrews but when he or his CMO get up and explain something in detail and at length it's almost like the media people present cannot understand words containing more than one syllable

Has Robbo started attending Dan's pressers?

 

[DavidSSS]

Just updated the numbers for the evening, amazing how they change things.

Before updating the previous days' numbers the 7 day trailing average was 61.43, now 60.14
Before updating the previous days' numbers the 14 day trailing average was 76.5, now 75.86
The 5 day centred average is always a couple of days behind, but for 7 September was 56.2, now it is 54.4

It pays to watch for the revisions, small changes each day often lead to much larger changes as a few days' revisions kick in.

We'll see what happens tomorrow but here's hoping the new infections are heading in the right direction.

DS

 

[Sintiger]

Everyday occurance. No real time for Andrews but when he or his CMO get up and explain something in detail and at length it's almost like the media people present cannot understand words containing more than one syllable

As an aside Brett Sutton is the Chief Health Officer (CHO) not the Chief Medical Officer (CMO). The positions and levels vary by state but in Victoria the CMO is Andrew Wilson and his responsibilities are primarily in the hospital sector whereas the CHO’s job is public health.

 

[MB78]

Will be interesting to see if some restrictions are eased over the next week. The opinion polls suggest that if an election was held today Andrews Government would be defeated.

 

[Coburgtiger]

Will be interesting to see if some restrictions are eased over the next week. The opinion polls suggest that if an election was held today Andrews Government would be defeated.

Well it's a good thing a health decision is being made rather than a political one.

 

[IanG]

The opinion polls suggest that if an election was held today Andrews Government would be defeated.

1 opinion poll commissioned by the LNP of 550 people across 5 marginal seats by a company called Mediareach. As opposed to a Roy Morgan poll showing 70% support for Andrews measures.

 

[bigwow]

43 new cases, 9 deaths last 24 hours.

 

[Ridley]

1 opinion poll commissioned by the LNP of 550 people across 5 marginal seats by a company called Mediareach. As opposed to a Roy Morgan poll showing 70% support for Andrews measures.

Polls 2 years out from an election are possibly the most pointless exercise ever. As evidenced by the 2 starkly different results by the 2 polls you mentioned.

They generally can't even get it right 2 weeks from an election.

 

[tigertim]

Polls 2 years out from an election are possibly the most pointless exercise ever. As evidenced by the 2 starkly different results by the 2 polls you mentioned.

They generally can't even get it right 2 weeks from an election.

yep, in 2 years time people will have forgotten about how they felt in September 2020.

 

[Baloo]

Dunno about that Ridley. Mid term polls managed to get Abbott kicked out of the top job. That was a very good thing.

 

[Ridley]

Dunno about that Ridley. Mid term polls managed to get Abbott kicked out of the top job. That was a very good thing.

Possibly. I'm sure ALP supporters thought so. Although 5 years later they are still in opposition. Probably better for the ALP if he had have stayed.

 

[Legends of 2017]

yep, in 2 years time people will have forgotten about how they felt in September 2020.

I’m not sure about that. I haven’t forgotten how I felt in September 2017 or September 2019 yet

 

[tigertim]

I’m not sure about that. I haven’t forgotten how I felt in September 2017 or September 2019 yet

Touché!

 

[Baloo]

Possibly. I'm sure ALP supporters thought so. Although 5 years later they are still in opposition. Probably better for the ALP if he had have stayed.

Fair point, but I think that's more reflective of how bad both sides are at the moment.

 

[Brodders17]

I’m not sure about that. I haven’t forgotten how I felt in September 2017 or September 2019 yet

I was going to say hopefully we remember how we felt in October 2020- for the right reason.

 

[DavidSSS]

A decent number today, hopefully the trend continues.



The actual numbers for the past few days, as revised:

Date	New Infections	7 Day Trailing Ave	5 Day Centred Ave	14 Day Traiing Ave
6 September 2020​	39​	73.29​	58.60​	91.93​
7 September 2020​	49​	70.86​	54.40​	85.29​
8 September 2020​	71​	68.57​	50.60​	80.14​
9 September 2020​	51​	60.14​	​	75.86​
10 September 2020​	43​	55.29​	​	71.14​

We'll see what happens tomorrow as the 5 day centred average loses 6 Sept which was 39, hence, if the number is larger than 39 the 5 day centred average will ris. Being a shorter period it will always be more volatile. The 14 Day average is showing a good trend.

DS