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IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
I read yesterday that Wednesday is quite often “spike” day but it couldn’t be explained Why.
I suspect it has something to do with weekends and the delay as a result with processing times. Just a guess though.
i think the fact is someone who was in the trial acquired an unexplained illness/disease. they are trying to ascertain whether it is related to the vaccine.
also it has been pointed out numerous times that all other coranaviruses have petered out before a vaccine could be found. if that happens with Covid19 great (but seemingly unlikely), otherwise people wont give up trying.
That's a different argument. ToO's statement was fact. There has never been a successful coronavirus vaccination created. This time it might be different, but we're not there yet so as it stands today, ToO is 100% correct.
what i said is fact too, just depends what attitude you want to have.
Not trying to be argumentative here but is the Spanish flu a coronavirus? The current flu vaccination I believe still includes protection against that virus. The flu vaccine is updated each year but includes protection not just for the latest strain as I understand it.
But the basis of the argument remains.Developing a vaccine against COVID-19 is a massive undertaking
The fact was initially posted because of the Federal Government selling a potential vaccine to the public that doesn't yet exist.
I didn't say it won't ever happen but using an uncertain cure as leverage now to pressure opening up faster is a false economy.
This setback only highlighted the challenges that we don't know how long (if ever) a vaccine will take to develop.
Nope, influenza is not a coronavirus.
I don't have a problem with the fact. It's true that we don't have a coronavirus vaccine. Just the implied suggestion that we won't.
It's the same as saying in January 1969 'No one has ever set foot on the moon.'
That was a fact. But with huge international efforts, interest, competition, and financing coupled with huge leaps in technology, the past is not a good predictor of the present.
I think the implied suggestion was that we shouldn't expect a vaccine any day now. Certainly not soon enough for a government to crow about it to the media. Unless you're Trump of course.
I think the issue is that there are quite a few who are promoting the possibility of a vaccine (before November 3 maybe?) and raising expectations beyond what is credible for their own gain. We know who they are.
I think I have mentioned before that there have only been 97 vaccines approved for human use by the FDA in the USA, 97, over the couple of hundred years that vaccines have existed. That said, vaccines have done amazing things especially when you look at polio and smallpox.
It won't be easy to get a vaccine, there hasn't been a successful vaccine for a corona virus, but humans are very adaptable and we have a lot of really smart people working on this. I reckon there is a good chance for a vaccine, but it won't be for a while yet, hopefully sometime in 2021, early 2021 would be good.
In the meantime, we use the tried and true strategy of quarantine to control the spread of this virus. Today was a little better than yesterday so hopefully on a downward trend and a way out of lockdown:
The shorter averages are still below the 14 day average which indicates a downward trend.
Today's numbers are:
The trend is still down slowly, but getting the numbers really low will likely take some time.
DS
I think I have mentioned before that there have only been 97 vaccines approved for human use by the FDA in the USA, 97, over the couple of hundred years that vaccines have existed. That said, vaccines have done amazing things especially when you look at polio and smallpox.
It won't be easy to get a vaccine, there hasn't been a successful vaccine for a corona virus, but humans are very adaptable and we have a lot of really smart people working on this. I reckon there is a good chance for a vaccine, but it won't be for a while yet, hopefully sometime in 2021, early 2021 would be good.
In the meantime, we use the tried and true strategy of quarantine to control the spread of this virus. Today was a little better than yesterday so hopefully on a downward trend and a way out of lockdown:
The shorter averages are still below the 14 day average which indicates a downward trend.
Today's numbers are:
| Date | New Infections | 7 Day Trailing Ave | 5 Day Centred Ave | 14 Day trailing ave |
|---|---|---|---|---|
5 September 2020 | 62 | 77.86 | 60.60 | 97.00 |
6 September 2020 | 40 | 73.43 | 60.40 | 92.00 |
7 September 2020 | 52 | 71.43 | 56.20 | 85.57 |
8 September 2020 | 76 | 69.86 | | 80.79 |
9 September 2020 | 51 | 61.43 | | 76.50 |
The trend is still down slowly, but getting the numbers really low will likely take some time.
DS
the 14 day average is the key. we need to get it to between "30-50" by September 28 to end stage 4. If we are at 76.5 today, and cases drop by half every 18 days, and its 18 days til September 28, we should be well below 40 by then.
I'm not watching today as I'm at work. but its laughable that people are outraged because Andrews made the decision on the curfew, not the CMO. The curfew has nothing to do with the health side of things. It has everything to do with the d!ckhead side of things. A curfew in place means no house parties.
Numbers jumping around a bit and base number its necessarily telling the whole story.
Ie. the 8th we had 41 cases (using Covidlive.com.au) though this had a positive test rate of 0.47%. The 9th had 73 cases (so seems worse) but due to the higher test rate, was actually better, as we had a positive test rate of 0.44%. Today was really good, a drop in positive test rate to 0.27%. Need to consistently hit this number and keep reducing.
Active cases outside of healthcare and aged care now below 500 which is great news.
14 day average on covidlive.com.au is 72.4.
Ie. the 8th we had 41 cases (using Covidlive.com.au) though this had a positive test rate of 0.47%. The 9th had 73 cases (so seems worse) but due to the higher test rate, was actually better, as we had a positive test rate of 0.44%. Today was really good, a drop in positive test rate to 0.27%. Need to consistently hit this number and keep reducing.
Active cases outside of healthcare and aged care now below 500 which is great news.
14 day average on covidlive.com.au is 72.4.
Yeah I think the move from Step 1 to Step 2 is pretty much a guarantee. Its the end of October changes that are more at risk IMO.
It smacks of the murdocracy looking for something to be outraged about.
I think the parameters required for the move to step 3 are too onerous. To move to step 3, which as I understand will allow small business and shops to reopen with restrictions, we will need from 26 October, in metropolitan Melbourne less than an average of 5 daily cases state-wide (over the 14-day period prior) and less than five of unknown transmission during that time (state-wide total).
I really can not see how we will get to a 14 day average of less than 5 cases in that time frame. It will be very difficult, a pipe dream really. NSW is operating at an equivalent of stage 3 (probably less restrictions actually) with around 10-20 new cases a day. As long as we can get our *smile* together with contract tracing (it's not as if they haven't had enough time to sort that out) then current NSW levels is where we should be going to stage 3. This will let small business such as retail shops, cafes, restaurants, hairdressers, real estate agents, car yards etc open and get people back to work. These restrictions are killing small business and the people who own them and work in them. No way they can open at current levels but the number of 5 is way too onerous.
If Andrews and the authorities can get the contract tracing out we should be able to open when we get to current NSW levels. His target is way too conservative.
Yeah I agree, step 3 seems too hard to achieve.
I'd think an average of 10 (NSW 14 day average is 9.7) with strong contact tracing and no community transmission (outside of a 24 hour CT window) and we should be able to open.
There will be pressure around this particularly if we are claiming our CT is as good as they say it is.
I think they've made Step 1 to Step 2 easy enough so they can achieve it, it seems that way to me anyway but the move to Step 3 of 5 cases per day is quite difficult. We'll get there but would take longer than that.
We also need to make sure we are focused on supression, elimination with where the world is out is completely pointless and will damage the country more, I know the science states we can get there but you have to wonder what the point is. In 2021 1 of 2 things will occur and elimination will be deemed pointless in these cases, either we get a vaccine or we don't. If we do, then elimination was pointless as we can heavily impact Covid with the vaccine, and in the instance where we don't get a vaccine, there is 0% chance that Australia will close our borders to the world, so we will need to live in a world with Covid and therefore we will be open to transmission of Covid coming into Australia so for me I just can't see a scenario where elimination makes sense.
