Coronavirus

[mrposhman]

Deflect from what? And who should be being blamed?

How about, now is not the time to get into the blame game. We need a safe path out of this.

I have no political affiliation to Dan but think the current crowing by the feds is outrageous. Morrison has been saying all a long, that they support Vics, we are all vics etc etc. He says they are listening to all the medical advice etc but when Dan releases a plan (which I know is conservative but I'm ok with that) they turn on him (both Morrison and Frydenberg).

What exactly is wrong with the plan from the Vic government? Maybe the rate of 5 average new cases by the time the rest of kids go back to school might be too low. Maybe it is, but we aren't at the position yet and it depends where those 5 are coming from and also what the testing rates are.

It would be sheer incompetence of the highest order to open up quicker right now at this time, at least in Metro Melbourne. I understand why they don't want to go down the postcode and suburb rate like they did initially, and that was because it seemed to have very little impact on stopping the outbreak so again because people will find ways around breaking those rules.

Its frustrating, I get it. I'm damn frustrated but I know that sticking to the rules and following a conservative path out is the best scenario.

2 scenarios. We start opening up more aggressively now, and go too quick (our positive test rates are already miles higher than NSW) and a 3rd outbreak happens, we go into another 2-3 month lockdown.

Or we delay opening up for another few weeks at Stage 4, so slightly slower (and there is nothing to suggest that the stated restrictions being reduced won't happen as I believe we will be able to get down below 50 cases on 14 day moving average by then) and open slower and more protectively. This will have a more profound impact on the economy than opening up too quickly and opening up a 3rd wave.

 

[AngryAnt]

When doesn't any political party look to score political points when the opportunity presents? Dan doesn't and hasn't done it because he is simply not in a position to. All he can hope for is to beat the timeframes in his road map and manage the ongoing virus numbers better. NSW and other states have shown it is clearly possible. Hopefully he and his gov't can do that. Until then he just has to cop his whack and get on with it.

He hasn't done it since day 1, but I guess that won't change your opinion. Have a good one.

 

[mrposhman]

Just on the numbers, active cases outside of healthcare and aged care now down below 600 (at 573) and continuing to decline which is great to see. Should be below 500 soon.



The worrying thing for me is the positive test rate. Its certainly be declining and is now consistently below 0.5% but when you compare to NSW, who hit 0.1% maybe once or twice across every fortnight and all other days are below 0.1% we have some way to go to hitting the same positive test rates we are seeing in other states indicating that we still have a lot more of the virus in Vic than anywhere else.

 

[Tigers of Old]

The positive test rate is exactly why I find the Feds comparisons to the NSW situation ludicrous. Notice it's ever mentioned or considered?

 

[MD Jazz]

He hasn't done it since day 1, but I guess that won't change your opinion. Have a good one.

Dan hasn't been in a position to fire any shots. It's not an opinion to say there's been multiple stuff ups under Dan's leadership.

Hopefully he and his gov't can get it right, its a step in the right direction that he's accepted assistance from other states/places/experts that have done the job better.

 

[IanG]

Interesting listening to a Joe Rogan podcast with Elon Musk, they commented that restrictions in the US have been too harsh. Imagine if they had to live under the VIC restrictions?

IIRC Musk is a proponent of the herd immunity strategy which has been shown to be a failure.

 

[Althom]

Well I think it's Kennett for the state of the VIC health system and scomo for aged care outbreaks & quarantine fiasco.

Kennett hasn't been Premier for 21 years. Surely the 5 Premiers since then should bear some of the blame for the state of the Health System in Victoria?

 

[AngryAnt]

Dan hasn't been in a position to fire any shots.

IMO it shouldn't be about "firing shots", would be good if national and state could work together on this... at the start that was very much the case. Pity it's gone sideways now.

 

[Ian4]

Sooo...deflect the disaster under the Andrews state government on to the federal government.

Andrews has said on numerous time he isn't interested in playing politics right now, just beating this pandemic. That’s what a real leader in a crisis does. No spin doctoring or deflecting. Just getting the job done. And its succeeding (albeit slower than what we all want). Morrison could learn so much from Andrews. But he can't escape his failed marketing exec past.

 

[Coburgtiger]

IMO it shouldn't be about "firing shots", would be good if national and state could work together on this... at the start that was very much the case. Pity it's gone sideways now.

People on here still desperate to turn this into political point scoring.

Fact is, everyone in charge, at federal and state level have done admirably in this completely unprecedented situation.

At all points, our leaders have tried to do the right thing. Threats have been taken seriously, compromises have been made, and people have put the good of our country and citizens ahead of their own careers.

Yes, in attempting to make good decisions, poor ones have been made. Mistakes at all levels have occurred. And with an invisible, exponential threat, some mistakes have small consequences, some have huge.

I don't agree with all decisions which have been made, and have been vocal about it at the time. But, unlike what's happening/happened in other countries, for the first time in my life, I'm proud of my country and its leaders.

 

[mrposhman]

The positive test rate is exactly why I find the Feds comparisons to the NSW situation ludicrous. Notice it's ever mentioned or considered?

Absolutely.

See attached graph with the 5 largest states on it. Note that the Vics 7 day average is probably a bit low at the moment, as it includes that large number of negative tests that were thrown into the data on 3rd September. This added about 65k more tests into that 7 day MA (out of 177k total so a significant proportion) bringing the Moving average to 0.27% but normalised its more like 0.35%. Table below shows normalised for VIC compared to the other states and how much higher our positive test rate is. Opening up now would be incompetence.

	7 day MA	VIC multiple
NSW	0.04%​	9.0
VIC	0.35%​
QLD	0.01%​	26.1
WA	0.02%​	22.8
SA	0.01%​	41.0

 

[MD Jazz]

IIRC Musk is a proponent of the herd immunity strategy which has been shown to be a failure.

I don't think any strategy will be truly measurable for a few years yet. And even then it will be debated and argued about for years after.

 

[MD Jazz]

IMO it shouldn't be about "firing shots", would be good if national and state could work together on this... at the start that was very much the case. Pity it's gone sideways now.

Tell it to both sides. Would be a better way to work at all times. The initial days of the National cabinet saw all sorts of collaboration between usually warring adversaries. We need more of it but it takes two to tango.

 

[pete and tys]

Is there any accurate information about how useful or otherwise the Covidsafe app has been ?
What did it cost to establish and advertise?

 

[Sintiger]

When doesn't any political party look to score political points when the opportunity presents? Dan doesn't and hasn't done it because he is simply not in a position to. All he can hope for is to beat the timeframes in his road map and manage the ongoing virus numbers better. NSW and other states have shown it is clearly possible. Hopefully he and his gov't can do that. Until then he just has to cop his whack and get on with it.

There is truth in this. There is no doubt that Andrews has not played politics at all when many others have and I think that was the point that has been made.
The question is why ? He would like us to believe that it’s because he is concentrating on the response and doesn't have the time but Dan is a political animal in the end and my view is that he has been advised not to.

 

[IanG]

Is there any accurate information about how useful or otherwise the Covidsafe app has been ?
What did it cost to establish and advertise?

I've seen feedback 14 cases have been found with it in total so not useful at all

 

[tigertim]

The Deputy Chief medical officer Nick Chatsworth has advised people struggling with lockdown to get structure in their life, like “making your bed”.....

 

[pete and tys]

I've seen feedback 14 cases have been found with it in total so not useful at all

Yep. That is what I thought.
No media about it.
A complete farce as it turns out.
How much ?

 

[Tigers of Old]

I deleted the app the other day. What a waste of money.

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

I deleted the app the other day. What a waste of money.

Still use it. At least if you get symptoms it might alert you if you've been in close proximity to someone who's tested positive.