Coronavirus | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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Coronavirus

No worries, long time since I did stats, over 30 years! Good stats are explained properly so you can see what they mean and what other ways to calculate from data might be available.

DS
Yeah it'd be about the same for me. First year at uni and I bloody hated it.
 
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As an aside the attached article is a perfect example of why we need the UN agencies working effectively in this situation. It's all very well getting to low case numbers in Australia but for us to return to some form of normal life we need to be able to provide help for the poorest nations as well.

https://www.unicef.org/press-releas...d-19-vaccines-worlds-largest-and-fastest-ever


NEW YORK/COPENHAGEN, 4 September 2020 – UNICEF is leading efforts to procure and supply COVID-19 vaccines in what could possibly be the world’s largest and fastest ever procurement and supply of vaccines, as part of the global vaccine plan of the COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access Facility (COVAX Facility) led by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.
With several vaccine candidates showing promise, UNICEF, in collaboration with the PAHO Revolving Fund, will lead efforts to procure and supply doses of COVID-19 vaccines on behalf of the COVAX Facility for 92 low- and lower middle-income countries whose vaccine purchases will be supported by the mechanism through the Gavi COVAX AMC as well as a buffer stockpile for humanitarian emergencies. In addition, UNICEF will also serve as procurement coordinator to support procurement by 80 higher-income economies, which have expressed their intent to participate in the COVAX Facility and would finance the vaccines from their own public finance budgets.
UNICEF will undertake these efforts in close collaboration with WHO, Gavi, CEPI, PAHO, World Bank, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and other partners. The COVAX Facility is open to all countries to ensure that no country is left without access to a future COVID-19 vaccine.
“This is an all-hands on deck partnership between governments, manufacturers and multilateral partners to continue the high-stakes fight against the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Henrietta Fore, UNICEF Executive Director. “In our collective pursuit of a vaccine, UNICEF is leveraging its unique strengths in vaccine supply to make sure that all countries have safe, fast and equitable access to the initial doses when they are available.”
UNICEF is the largest single vaccine buyer in the world, procuring more than 2 billion doses of vaccines annually for routine immunization and outbreak response on behalf of nearly 100 countries. It is the main procurement partner of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, which over the last 20 years has reached more than 760 million children with life-saving vaccines, preventing more than 13 million deaths. UNICEF will use its market shaping and procurement expertise to coordinate the procurement and supply of COVID-19 vaccines for the COVAX Facility. This could potentially double the agency’s overall vaccine procurement throughput volume in 2021 alone.
In response to an expression of interest that UNICEF issued in June on behalf of the COVAX Facility, 28 manufacturers with production facilities in 10 countries shared their annual production plans for COVID-19 vaccines through 2023. According to the timelines the manufacturers indicated, the span from development to production could be one of the fastest scientific and manufacturing leaps in history.
A UNICEF market assessment, developed by compiling information submitted by vaccine manufacturers along with publicly available data, revealed that manufacturers are willing to collectively produce unprecedented quantities of vaccines over the coming 1-2 years. However, manufacturers signaled that investments to support such large-scale production of doses would be highly dependent on, among other things, whether clinical trials are successful, advance purchase agreements are put in place, funding is confirmed, and regulatory and registration pathways are streamlined.
This assessment also illustrates, among other things, manufacturers’ responsiveness to the COVAX Facility’s design and objectives—a key pillar of the ACT-Accelerator initiative, which is a new, groundbreaking global collaboration to accelerate the development and equitable distribution of vaccines, diagnostics and therapeutics to address the COVID-19 pandemic across countries of all income levels.
A key next step will be ensuring self-financing economies sign up for the COVAX Facility by 18 September, which will allow COVAX to support early, at-risk investments in increasing manufacturing capacity on a broad scale, through advance purchase agreements.
Currently under development by WHO, the COVAX allocation framework will guide how and where UNICEF, PAHO and other procurers working on behalf of participating countries supply COVID-19 vaccines that are secured by the Facility. Initial dose allocations are expected to be scaled to enable countries to vaccinate health and social workers, followed by subsequent tranches of vaccine doses that would enable participating countries to vaccinate populations at higher risk of critical COVID-19 disease.
“UNICEF has been critical partner in the Alliance’s success over the last two decades – helping us reach more than half the world’s population with life-saving vaccines,” said Dr. Seth Berkley, CEO of Gavi. “This expertise and experience will be important in ensuring that COVAX – as a global effort to procure and deliver safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines, on an accelerated timeframe, and at an unprecedented scale – can protect the most at-risk, wherever they may be in the world. Together we can work to end the acute stage of this pandemic, including its devastating impact on individuals, communities, and economies.”
UNICEF, Gavi, WHO, and PAHO have started critical preparatory work for country vaccine readiness in collaboration with partners and national governments including:
  • Working with device manufacturers to plan availability of safe injection equipment and cold chain requirements for the vaccine;
  • Developing guidance with WHO and trainings to support vaccination policies and appropriate handling, store and distribution of the vaccines;
  • Working with manufacturers on freight and logistics solutions to get vaccine doses to countries as quickly and safely as possible once they are allocated;
  • Supporting countries in planning for vaccine delivery, including targeting those most at risk and transport and storage at point of service delivery;
  • Ramping up efforts with civil society and other local partners to ensure that people are well-informed about the COVID-19 vaccination process and putting measures in place to enhance trust and tackle misinformation about COVID-19 vaccines.
 
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To some extent that is why the roadmap is so conservative, so slow.

It gives the Victorian government wriggle room. If the numbers come down quicker they can relax the restrictions earlier. Thus they have a plan, which is widely promoted, which gives them the possibility of relaxing restrictions early (over-delivering) with small risk of under-delivering. Definitely a balancing act but I would think the probability of relaxing restrictions early is much higher than the probability of having to extend restrictions. A political and epidemiological calculation and balancing act.

DS

I think the first couple of phases of the roadmap are incredibly conservative. We are under 50 today and the map to end stage 4 on September 28 is a “30-50” average. We should be much closer to 30 than 50 in 3 weeks time.

Its 49 days til October 26. We only need to drop the average by a couple per day on average to achieve a 5 per day average. We should achieve easily that while we are still under stage 3 restrictions.

But the last phase is extremely ambitious. To have a zero average by November 23, we need 14 consecutive days of zero cases from November 9. That seems impossible.
 
I think the first couple of phases of the roadmap are incredibly conservative. We are under 50 today and the map to end stage 4 on September 28 is a “30-50” average. We should be much closer to 30 than 50 in 3 weeks time.

Its 49 days til October 26. We only need to drop the average by a couple per day on average to achieve a 5 per day average. We should achieve easily that while we are still under stage 3 restrictions.

But the last phase is extremely ambitious. To have a zero average by November 23, we need 14 consecutive days of zero cases from November 9. That seems impossible.
I wish it was stage 3 Ian but it most certainly is not

I am in the Yarra Valley. .considered Metro but 20 ks past the last suburb. 7 more weeks of stage 4. 5km radius which gives us nothing but Coles. No visitors as we are not single and are not in a separated relationship. No sports for 7 weeks. Cannot see grand children who live 1 km away for another 7 weeks. So 16 weeks in total. The road map has given us absolutely zero change for the next 7 weeks.
And we have no covid here.
As an extra....internet nbn gone once again. Lastime 2 weeks ago. Old and faulty t/p line network. Cannot get it fixed. Telstra has no communication other than nessaging villagers in India who are utterly incapable of assistance. I gave up and tried to cancel my internet plan...cant. Have to go back through the Indian villagers who cant help.
Not happy here.
 
Something that might be of interest to you Victorian guys.

I applied for the Rent Relief Grant over the weekend. I have lost income due to COVID, but I have much more than $5k savings so didn't think I'd be viable. Anyhow, the people I spoke to at Consumer Affairs this week told me to apply anyway and state any income that already goes to medical bills, etc, and why you're not willing to dip into those savings.

Got a $3k payment today (that goes straight to the landlord), but that means no rent to pay for the next month.
 
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I wish it was stage 3 Ian but it most certainly is not

I am in the Yarra Valley. .considered Metro but 20 ks past the last suburb. 7 more weeks of stage 4. 5km radius which gives us nothing but Coles. No visitors as we are not single and are not in a separated relationship. No sports for 7 weeks. Cannot see grand children who live 1 km away for another 7 weeks. So 16 weeks in total. The road map has given us absolutely zero change for the next 7 weeks.
And we have no covid here.
As an extra....internet nbn gone once again. Lastime 2 weeks ago. Old and faulty t/p line network. Cannot get it fixed. Telstra has no communication other than nessaging villagers in India who are utterly incapable of assistance. I gave up and tried to cancel my internet plan...cant. Have to go back through the Indian villagers who cant help.
Not happy here.

Not necessarily.

Step 2 provides for the below.

  • Public gatherings - up to 5 people from a maximum of two households can meet outdoors for social interaction, exercise or recreation (infants under 12 months of age are not included in the cap) for a maximum of 2 hours and within 5 km of their home.
So you can see your grandkids, this kicks in from 28th September in Metro Melbourne, you will just have to meet them outdoors.

This is a good site thats been setup by the government showing the detail of the roadmap.

 
Yeah it'd be about the same for me. First year at uni and I bloody hated it.
Brings back memories....got all my pub money from one on one tutoring stats when I was at uni. Economics, psychology, even social work students who thought they had left maths behind at school all of a sudden had units of stats to overcome. Was a good hourly rate, should have kept my eye in as I believe parents pay heaps for high school maths tutors.
 
Brings back memories....got all my pub money from one on one tutoring stats when I was at uni. Economics, psychology, even social work students who thought they had left maths behind at school all of a sudden had units of stats to overcome. Was a good hourly rate, should have kept my eye in as I believe parents pay heaps for high school maths tutors.

Geez, I hadn't done maths for a while but stats was pretty easy.

DS
 
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Since the 14 day trailing average seems to be having a big influence on when the restrictions are lifted, I thought I would add it to the graph:

COVID19 7 day ave 07092020a.jpg

As you would expect, the 14 day trailing average looks a lot like the other averages, just shifted across a bit. But it is also less volatile, much smoother and does not get to the extremes of the averages based on a shorter length of time. Since I don't have the June data in the spreadsheet this average only starts on 14 July.

We'll see how this goes, might see if a different colour works too. Purple shows up but could be hard to distinguish - need a strong colour but sufficiently different from green, red and blue to make it work.

The other stat, which I haven't graphed, is active cases. Would be good to see the rolling average there too but the active cases are dropping and the trend is very clear there too.

In the USA the 7 day trailing average seems to be sitting at around 40K per day, which is higher than it ever got in the first wave and it barely went down much between the 2 waves in the USA. I can see a way forward in Aus, no idea how they are going to deal with this in the USA. Their death rate as a proportion of population is way above ours and they have just had a holiday weekend and are heading into winter.

Internationally this is not even beginning to end, it is ramping up.

DS
 
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Given how many IT rollouts fail, I hope they are keeping the manual contact tracing system going while setting up the digital system. I work with too many IT "solutions" which are far more time consuming and cumbersome than the paper-based systems they replaced to have any faith that this will be as good, let alone better, than the manual system it replaces.

Today's new infection number is not a surprise. Numbers are dropping but it is bumpy and that is to be expected.

COVID19 7 day ave 08092020.jpg

Have the 14 day trailing average included now as that is what is being used to determine the lifting of restrictions.

Today the averages are as follows:
5 Day Centred Average (5 Sept): 62
7 Day Trailing Average (7 Sept): 72.43
14 Day Trailing Average (7 Sept): 86.21

The 5 Day average had a fair drop today as it now has no day above 100, to keep going down we need to keep seeing numbers under 75.

The 14 day average is on a smoother down slope which is a good sign, it should keep going but it has a fair way to get down to 50.

DS
 
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Now changed to 41 new & 14 reclassified. The re-classifications will screw up the averages a bit.
 
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