Coronavirus

[Sintiger]

Other than the deaths some good numbers today.

Active cases outside of aged care and healthcare continue to come down nicely (down 130 today, down 120 yesterday) and now sits at 1,017 current active cases. If we can continue this downward trend then we could be in a great position re active cases in the community by the end of Stage 4. The 2nd graph also shows how the % of aged care cases has increased as a % of total active cases over time (now at almost 47% of total active cases).

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The other major positive is the positive test rate, whilst test numbers have been declining, the drop in new cases isnt primarily due to that, the positive test rate has been declining, and now getting close to the rates we were at the start of July. Still roughly 4 to 5 times higher than the positive test rate in NSW but certainly going in the right direction.

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I think we need to be careful with active cases Mr P., meaning they may well be lower than what is listed, especially in the community. Contact tracing and cases being closed out got behind simply because of volume and now that the volumes are lower active cases are being closed quicker.

 

[eZyT]

Deleted

 

[eZyT]

Unfortunately we have 500 extra deaths in Vic as a result of poor leadership.There are no winners here.

Frydenburg is a *smile* though

Yeah i get that quarintine was a stuff up.

But thats what it was ... a stuff up. Monumental.

But Frydenberg attempting to apply heat in the middle of a strategy that is working, in a huge crisis,

Is beyond cynical IMO.

Dont they see the mess that $$$ growth at all costs has got us into?

And that you cant buy TVs off harvey norman if youre dead?

I wont be at all surprised if Liberal mates have bought up chains of funeral homes,

And are offering automated, half-service funerals at double price.

Actually, ill be astounded if they havnt

 

[Sintiger]

Just watched Andrews and the CMO's press briefing.
CMO gave a detailed and lengthy explanation of why some numbers were delayed in reporting.
First question from media muppet "Why did it take so long to report these deaths?"
Why attend a briefing if you are too stupid to comprehend what is being said?

I think you answered your own question with the term "media muppet"

 

[mrposhman]

Unfortunately we have 500 extra deaths in Vic as a result of poor leadership.There are no winners here.

Frydenburg is a *smile* though

Not necessarily, we don't have 500 EXTRA deaths at all. We are about 90% down in influenza deaths this year. If the outbreaks of Covid didn't occur we don't know how additional deaths relating to flu that we would have got. Its likely that flu deaths would have been down YOY but we don't know by how many and no-one can ascertain that.

We do know people have died that if there was better handling of both hotel quarantine and aged care, but to quantify that is very difficult.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Interestingly the testing numbers have dropped significantly. Only 14,000 tests yesterday. I hope not but that may be distorting the case figures.

 

[mrposhman]

Interestingly the testing numbers have dropped significantly. Only 14,000 tests yesterday. I hope not but that may be distorting the case figures.

Positive test rate has been down as well, so at least part of the lower numbers are a result of lower virus in the community.

 

[mrposhman]

Seems the weren't all in 1 day. Included in there are 22 deaths related to deaths in aged care homes in the weeks running upto 27th August but only reported to DHHS yesterday. Still not a great number but it wasn't all in 1 day so deaths aren't accelerating from the level. 19 in 1 day is still a fairly high number though.

Its been updated now that 33 of todays deaths are from prior days.

 

[mrposhman]

I think we need to be careful with active cases Mr P., meaning they may well be lower than what is listed, especially in the community. Contact tracing and cases being closed out got behind simply because of volume and now that the volumes are lower active cases are being closed quicker.

Yeah thats fair enough when it comes to the movement, it depends when assumptions are updated for those that weren't hospitalised.

I think its encouraging however that (assuming tomorrow also shows a negative number) that we will slip below 1000 active cases outside of aged care and healthcare tomorrow. Bearing in mind the peak was 5,178 on 7th August, thats a good movement down in about 3 and a half weeks.

 

[MB78]

This failure is worse by the minute. Why can’t we have ripped up the contracts with the security companies when its costing this much for a dud solution? No wonder Victoria is now the laughing stock of Australia.

Hotel quarantine cost Victoria $130 million and still infected the state

Senior public servants say it would have been cheaper to use the military as Victoria's security guard model ran $24 million over budget.

www.theage.com.au

 

[Coburgtiger]

This failure is worse by the minute. Why can’t we have ripped up the contracts with the security companies when its costing this much for a dud solution? No wonder Victoria is now the laughing stock of Australia.

Hotel quarantine cost Victoria $130 million and still infected the state

Senior public servants say it would have been cheaper to use the military as Victoria's security guard model ran $24 million over budget.

www.theage.com.au

If the rest of Australia are laughing, that says more about the rest of Australia.

 

[IanG]

This failure is worse by the minute. Why can’t we have ripped up the contracts with the security companies when its costing this much for a dud solution? No wonder Victoria is now the laughing stock of Australia.

The security companies used were recommended by the Federal Government so ask why they still have Federal Government contracts as well.

 

[MD Jazz]

Not necessarily, we don't have 500 EXTRA deaths at all. We are about 90% down in influenza deaths this year. If the outbreaks of Covid didn't occur we don't know how additional deaths relating to flu that we would have got. Its likely that flu deaths would have been down YOY but we don't know by how many and no-one can ascertain that.

We do know people have died that if there was better handling of both hotel quarantine and aged care, but to quantify that is very difficult.

We (as in Vic) were tacking similarly to thevother states before hotel quarantine. Our death rate has skyrocketed. Around 500 extra people have died than if we had tracked a similar path to the other states. Purely looking at the numbers.

 

[DavidSSS]

Another reason not to privatise these sorts of things to the company which offers the lowest price contract.

Should have had police, possibly corrections and defence at the hotels.

DS

 

[IanG]

70 new cases and 5 deaths, the trend keeps going down.

 

[Ridley]

70 new cases and 5 deaths, the trend keeps going down.

Sad but inevitable that people are still dying. Otherwise an excellent result.

 

[Sintiger]

Another reason not to privatise these sorts of things to the company which offers the lowest price contract.

Should have had police, possibly corrections and defence at the hotels.

DS

In my opinion the issue was not that prison guards, soldiers or police were not providing security. The issue was the staff of whoever was supplying security was not provided with proper training , protocols and checks and balances. They were also not provided with enough PPE and not trained in that as well but we have to remember that there was a massive shortage of PPE at that time.
We also need to remember that there were quarantine hotels running then which had no issues with infections and none of them had prison guards, soldiers or police providing security either. The inquiry will be looking at why that may have been the case I am sure.

 

[DavidSSS]

Looking ok, hope it keeps going.



Trends are down and hopefully the 7 day trailing average will drop under 100 shortly.

DS

 

[mrposhman]

Similar to Davids, all the trend lines are down which is good.

Whilst todays number is good, we need to identify that the testing rates are also down. The positive test rate is actually slightly higher than yesterday at 0.57%. which is still significantly higher than NSW which is consistently below 0.1%. We still have some way to go to lower this number which for me is a key number to being able to start removing restrictions confidently.

 

[Sintiger]

Whilst todays number is good, we need to identify that the testing rates are also down. The positive test rate is actually slightly higher than yesterday at 0.57%. which is still significantly higher than NSW which is consistently below 0.1%. We still have some way to go to lower this number which for me is a key number to being able to start removing restrictions confidently.

According to Trump the only reason why there is more COVID in the USA is because they test people so using that logic we should just stop testing and it will go away