-
IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
is this about the security guards at hotel quarantine? If it is, of course government employees would have done it better. To suggest otherwise is delusional, totally delusional.
If it isn't about the security guards, sorry, couldn't be bothered trawling back.
Infectious disease expert says Victoria is facing 300 plus cases until at least the end of the year (paywalled)
Lucy Callander
Herald Sun
July 25, 2020
A hard lockdown should have been introduced weeks ago and face masks will not be enough to stop coronavirus, a leading infectious disease expert says.
Professor Nigel McMillan of Menzies Health Institute Queensland said Victoria now faced the real possibility of 300 plus cases every day until the end of the year.
“I think Melbourne came out of the first lockdown too soon,” he said.
“The daily numbers weren’t low enough to justify the relaxing of restrictions.”
He said instead of returning to State 3 on July 8 the state should have introduced Stage 4.
“There is evidence that a hard lockdown works.
“Had there been a move to Stage 4 straight away there would have been a chance to prevent what came next.”
Professor MacMillan, who is one of the top ten academic commentators on coronavirus, said the state’s obsession with finding lockdown loopholes and exemptions was puzzling.
“The rest of the country really can’t understand why there is debate around runners and cyclists wearing masks,” Prof McMillan said.
“It’s gone well beyond that. People should not be out.”
On Friday Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews said there was no immediate plan for any further lockdown restrictions.
“I’ve got no advice to move to a so-called stage four or to change those rules,” he said.
Chief Health Officer Professor Brett Sutton said it was “expected” a number of people would die in coming weeks.
“That’s an absolute tragedy and of course we’re working in any way we can to drive those numbers down,” he said.
“I understand the temptation to go to stage four … (but) a broad sweep of a shutdown of industry carries its own harms.
“And it may not turn around the transmission because of where we’re seeing transmission occurring.”
Prof Sutton said masks “may well be a game changer” in slowing the spread.
Face masks became mandatory on Thursday and debate has raged over exemptions, which include while doing strenuous exercise and eating and drinking.
On the first day of the mask policy Leader witnessed small groups of people at Mount Martha Village removing their masks to drink their take away coffee.
Shop assistants in Mornington also went mask free when customers were not in store.
There were concerns over the behaviour of cyclists with one man complaining that some were using a “bushman’s hanky” – blocking one nostril and expelling snot from the other – while riding.
A Bayside cyclist who did not wish to be named said the practice was common along Beach Rd.
“I am a keen, regular cyclist myself so understand the issue, but it just seems in these current unusual times, cyclists need to have the habit of collecting a handkerchief along with their mobile before heading out for a ride,” he said.
The Leader also spotted golfers at Brighton Public Golf Course without masks.
A Department of Health and Human Services spokesman said residents of metropolitan Melbourne or Mitchell Shire had to wear a face covering when they left home for one of four reasons – shopping for food and supplies, care and caregiving, exercise, and study and work.
“You can take your face covering off when eating or drinking, but should maintain physical distancing of 1.5 metres and practice good hygiene,’ the spokesman said.
“Eating and drinking should not be used as an excuse not to wear a mask. You must use common sense and wear a mask at all times where possible.
“You must wear your mask while at work, however you are permitted to remove it for short breaks if needed, but never around other people.”
Lucy Callander
Herald Sun
July 25, 2020
A hard lockdown should have been introduced weeks ago and face masks will not be enough to stop coronavirus, a leading infectious disease expert says.
Professor Nigel McMillan of Menzies Health Institute Queensland said Victoria now faced the real possibility of 300 plus cases every day until the end of the year.
“I think Melbourne came out of the first lockdown too soon,” he said.
“The daily numbers weren’t low enough to justify the relaxing of restrictions.”
He said instead of returning to State 3 on July 8 the state should have introduced Stage 4.
“There is evidence that a hard lockdown works.
“Had there been a move to Stage 4 straight away there would have been a chance to prevent what came next.”
Professor MacMillan, who is one of the top ten academic commentators on coronavirus, said the state’s obsession with finding lockdown loopholes and exemptions was puzzling.
“The rest of the country really can’t understand why there is debate around runners and cyclists wearing masks,” Prof McMillan said.
“It’s gone well beyond that. People should not be out.”
On Friday Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews said there was no immediate plan for any further lockdown restrictions.
“I’ve got no advice to move to a so-called stage four or to change those rules,” he said.
Chief Health Officer Professor Brett Sutton said it was “expected” a number of people would die in coming weeks.
“That’s an absolute tragedy and of course we’re working in any way we can to drive those numbers down,” he said.
“I understand the temptation to go to stage four … (but) a broad sweep of a shutdown of industry carries its own harms.
“And it may not turn around the transmission because of where we’re seeing transmission occurring.”
Prof Sutton said masks “may well be a game changer” in slowing the spread.
Face masks became mandatory on Thursday and debate has raged over exemptions, which include while doing strenuous exercise and eating and drinking.
On the first day of the mask policy Leader witnessed small groups of people at Mount Martha Village removing their masks to drink their take away coffee.
Shop assistants in Mornington also went mask free when customers were not in store.
There were concerns over the behaviour of cyclists with one man complaining that some were using a “bushman’s hanky” – blocking one nostril and expelling snot from the other – while riding.
A Bayside cyclist who did not wish to be named said the practice was common along Beach Rd.
“I am a keen, regular cyclist myself so understand the issue, but it just seems in these current unusual times, cyclists need to have the habit of collecting a handkerchief along with their mobile before heading out for a ride,” he said.
The Leader also spotted golfers at Brighton Public Golf Course without masks.
A Department of Health and Human Services spokesman said residents of metropolitan Melbourne or Mitchell Shire had to wear a face covering when they left home for one of four reasons – shopping for food and supplies, care and caregiving, exercise, and study and work.
“You can take your face covering off when eating or drinking, but should maintain physical distancing of 1.5 metres and practice good hygiene,’ the spokesman said.
“Eating and drinking should not be used as an excuse not to wear a mask. You must use common sense and wear a mask at all times where possible.
“You must wear your mask while at work, however you are permitted to remove it for short breaks if needed, but never around other people.”
The question is why weren’t government employees such as police and military given the task instead of untrained and undisciplined part time security contractors?
That is a downward trend. We've been over 400 every second day recently.
Microsoft Power BI
Tomorrow's numbers will be interesting.
Last edited:
the answer to that is pretty simple, governments have drifted to more and more outsourcing of contracts over the last 30 years to the point that its the default. This is in spite of a swag of research over the last 10-15 years showing private contractors, for the most part, do a worse job and with the conga line all spivs and shonk middlemen with party links with their hands out, it doesn't save the taxpayer any money, it costs more or the same, thats putting aside the crappier job they do.
The findings of the inquiry will basically be the above, maybe using different words
These sort of articles *smile* me. Promote fear at the time; and when the are ultimately proven wrong (as is often the case) they are never held to account.
Everyone wants to have a say, and positive outlooks are in short supply. I won’t publish the one that predicts a surge of serious cases in the next five days based on hospital modelling, then.
I can't see restrictions only lasting for 6 weeks. There has been no drop off in caseload. The 7 day moving average is still up, the positive test rate % is still up. We are now 17 days into a lockdown expected to last for 35 days. I just can't see a release of restrictions at that time.
We have a pretty major issue to try and get this under control at the moment and we are seeing no traction yet.
The biggest concern now is though we are seeing the deaths really start to ramp up which is obviously terrible.
Over the last 3 days we have seen 17 deaths (we were on a cumulative 44 before then so a significant increase) but since then the number in ICU has increased by 2. So you'd some if not all of those that died were in ICU, so they have been more than replaced with new patients which is a major worry.
We have a pretty major issue to try and get this under control at the moment and we are seeing no traction yet.
The biggest concern now is though we are seeing the deaths really start to ramp up which is obviously terrible.
Over the last 3 days we have seen 17 deaths (we were on a cumulative 44 before then so a significant increase) but since then the number in ICU has increased by 2. So you'd some if not all of those that died were in ICU, so they have been more than replaced with new patients which is a major worry.
Don’t disagree snake. I really hope the inquiry isn’t a whitewash though. The gross failure and incompetence of the Victorian hotel quarantine program must not be swept under the carpet. It’s a *smile* shitshow down here at the moment and we have hotel quarantine failure to thank for a major part of that.the answer to that is pretty simple, governments have drifted to more and more outsourcing of contracts over the last 30 years to the point that its the default. This is in spite of a swag of research over the last 10-15 years showing private contractors, for the most part, do a worse job and with the conga line all spivs and shonk middlemen with party links with their hands out, it doesn't save the taxpayer any money, it costs more or the same, thats putting aside the crappier job they do.
The findings of the inquiry will basically be the above, maybe using different words
the answer to that is pretty simple, governments have drifted to more and more outsourcing of contracts over the last 30 years to the point that its the default. This is in spite of a swag of research over the last 10-15 years showing private contractors, for the most part, do a worse job and with the conga line all spivs and shonk middlemen with party links with their hands out, it doesn't save the taxpayer any money, it costs more or the same, thats putting aside the crappier job they do.
The findings of the inquiry will basically be the above, maybe using different words
Theres a kind of co-morbidity between Covid and Capitalism. Throw in China, Trump, Black people getting murdered by police on camera, The brutal symptoms of climate change, bushfires, droughts, houses toppling into the sea,
and we have a *smile* show alright.
a real cluster *smile*.
I hope people find this useful, anyway, here we go again:
7 July: 102.29
8 July: 111.00
9 July: 123.57
10 July: 155.29
11 July: 170.71
12 July: 199.14
13 July: 206.29
14 July: 217.57
15 July: 232.43
16 July: 254.14
17 July: 274.14
18 July: 274.29
19 July: 287.14
20 July: 301.14
21 July: 316.00
22 July: 351.14
23 July: 363.43
24 July: 345.14
25 July: 365.14
Possibly flattening, but if this is the plateau it is at a high level. The next week or so will see if it goes up or down, or even stays around 350-380 a day. Now we need to start to see some trend down. Step 1 is to stop the rise, looks like this is close to being the case. Next step is probably more difficult, get the numbers down.
That article from the HUN was all over the place: This might potentially happen, then again maybe it won't, much use of the word probably. Added little except a nice alarmist headline. I know this is hard to predict but that told me very little I couldn't already work out for myself.
DS
7 July: 102.29
8 July: 111.00
9 July: 123.57
10 July: 155.29
11 July: 170.71
12 July: 199.14
13 July: 206.29
14 July: 217.57
15 July: 232.43
16 July: 254.14
17 July: 274.14
18 July: 274.29
19 July: 287.14
20 July: 301.14
21 July: 316.00
22 July: 351.14
23 July: 363.43
24 July: 345.14
25 July: 365.14
Possibly flattening, but if this is the plateau it is at a high level. The next week or so will see if it goes up or down, or even stays around 350-380 a day. Now we need to start to see some trend down. Step 1 is to stop the rise, looks like this is close to being the case. Next step is probably more difficult, get the numbers down.
That article from the HUN was all over the place: This might potentially happen, then again maybe it won't, much use of the word probably. Added little except a nice alarmist headline. I know this is hard to predict but that told me very little I couldn't already work out for myself.
DS
This is why we disagree so much. My opinions are fact-based whereas yours are "feel"-based.
Possibly the only two things listed with a relationship are COVID & China. You might argue Trump and capitalism, but Trump didn't invent it.
But the govt chose to use cheap private sector sources. Under $20 an hour no sick leave no work cover, no Union.
Govt employees $80 an hour plus overheads. And probably twice as many needed to cover tea breaks, stress leave, etc
Not saying they don't deserve it but the govt had the option in front of them.
It's on Paluka.
There is more divergence in views amongst the medical community than there is on this forum.
So one expert predicts 500 cases a day till Christmas, one day 300 for a month more and another says cases have peaked and will taper off under current restrictions,
Gues which one gets coverage in the media.
Same as stock market prediction. The scarier the story the more coverage regardless of track record of the forecaster.
Chief Health Officer Professor Brett Sutton said it was “expected” a number of people would die in coming weeks.
O Lee ...what great journalism you choose to promulgate.....
O Lee ...what great journalism you choose to promulgate.....
