5-7 days incubation period, measured from June 6. I don't often buy coincidence.
You called it yourself.
Plenty did. Didn't take Einstein.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
5-7 days incubation period, measured from June 6. I don't often buy coincidence.
You called it yourself.
Yes it’s true logic said they shouldn’t march.
Still answer why no issues in other states?
We'll just keep ignoring that the current spike in cases in Victoria is not at all linked to the BLM demo, there were demos in other states and more states where there were demos have no spike than have a spike.
So, if we are going to argue a correlation between a spike in cases and the BLM demo, we would have to say there is no correlation, Black Lives Matter demos occurred in:
Sydney: no spike in cases
Melbourne: spike in cases
Brisbane: no spike in cases
Perth: no spike in cases
Adelaide: no spike in cases
Townsville: no spike in cases
Hobart: no spike in cases
I could list more but the coincidence is just not there. If you have the same event in a number of places and only a spike in cases in one of those places then the correlation is just not there. If the BLM demos caused a spike in cases the spike would be in all places where there was a demo, not one. In fact, the data above suggests that the BLM demos did not lead to more cases, quite the opposite since there are way more cases of no correlation than there is of correlation.
But we all know that correlation is not causation.
We can see cases which have come from quarantine hotels, should we now argue that quarantine hotels should be closed? Clearly not but that is the sort of argument being used against the BLM demos.
DS
So, if we are going to argue a correlation between a spike in cases and the BLM demo, we would have to say there is no correlation, Black Lives Matter demos occurred in:
Sydney: no spike in cases
Melbourne: spike in cases
Brisbane: no spike in cases
Perth: no spike in cases
Adelaide: no spike in cases
Townsville: no spike in cases
Hobart: no spike in cases
I could list more but the coincidence is just not there. If you have the same event in a number of places and only a spike in cases in one of those places then the correlation is just not there. If the BLM demos caused a spike in cases the spike would be in all places where there was a demo, not one. In fact, the data above suggests that the BLM demos did not lead to more cases, quite the opposite since there are way more cases of no correlation than there is of correlation.
But we all know that correlation is not causation.
We can see cases which have come from quarantine hotels, should we now argue that quarantine hotels should be closed? Clearly not but that is the sort of argument being used against the BLM demos.
DS
Couple of Melbourne super-spreaders? Who can say what the mechanism was with this thing?
Would've been a surprise if it didn't happen.
If the BLM protest is not responsible for a spike in cases , it is purely good luck , not good management
The overwhelming evidence, as in all but 1 of the cities which held a BLM demo, is that it didn't happen.
So I suppose you will have to be surprised.
DS
The BLM events didnt cause spikes because organisers ensured people wore masks and practiced distancing as far as possible.
We now know that the virus spreads faster indoors during prolonged contact. We have no confirmed cases of spread from BLM in the whole of Australia.
We now know that the virus spreads faster indoors during prolonged contact. We have no confirmed cases of spread from BLM in the whole of Australia.
Victoria should just test less. It would quickly since the problem of all these positive results.
@LeeToRainesToRoach, your analysis and and stats keeping on this has been brilliant. But you are wrong on the reasons for this current spike in VIC. You are so blinded by your hatred of Andrews that you can't see that facts, even if it is plan to see. Only 4 of 189 Cases are linked to BLM (and even those 4 are disputed in some corners). Yes there are about 40 untraced, but that doesn’t mean they came from BLM. The Premiers statement on Saturday says the data is telling us the reason for the spike are people congregating in homes. And as @Tigers of Old said, if BLM is tha cause, why aren't there spikes in other states? By all means, be angry, but direct you anger at the selfish pr!cks not doing the right thing.
If tens of thousands of people want to protest, you can't prevent that. All you can do is contain it, hope they follow distancing etc and if you want to get punitive, fine the organisers. That's it.
And I get the argument that protests can cause others to relax discipline in more general life.
VicHealth has said those four cases were not connected to BLM, which probably indicates they are aware they got infected through family/work or other known sources.
The data just doesn't support it - Lee is trying to force the data to fit his political opinion, and that ain't rational.
That may well be true short of using physical force which could arguably cause more problems (spread).
That said it doesn't stop me thinking those individuals that marched are ridiculously selfish & it's counter productive to their cause.
There's a time & a place for these things & that wasn't it.
Black Lives Matter became No Lives Matter, marching in a pandemic. Infuriating.
No I don't like Andrews. Don't think I've posted anything on the branch-stacking thing. He's getting an easy run. O'Brien is barely any better than Guy.
Nobody wants to admit responsibility for making people sick, be they protesters or government. If they say they were elsewhere and don't know how they caught it, and they haven't got the app on their phones, they still count as one case and they still require treatment. I wouldn't expect too many to admit culpability and show remorse.
The data and chronology is what it is, but whichever way you look at it, Dan is running a leaky ship. Victorians have enabled its resurgence, and we can't blame China for that.
I agree its not the BLM protests that have caused it. Dumb that they went ahead but Andrews didn't encourage them. But it is the gov't health department incompetence that has definitely contributed to the VIC position. Cedar meats = debacle. And the cases arising from security guards at 2 hotel quarantine facilities is another health department disaster.
Physical-distancing breaches by security guards likely led to coronavirus outbreak at hotel
Victorian health authorities believe physical-distancing breaches by some security guards at a Melbourne hotel used to quarantine returned travellers may have contributed to an outbreak that has now grown to seven cases.
www.abc.net.au
Maybe old slave trader roots Van Diemen should have focused on teaching some basic hygiene protocols rather than history lessons?
Maybe but putting things in perspective, the USA have 120,000 +++ COVID deaths.
Australia on the other hand has a grand total of 102.
They only have such a high number because of all the testing they do.
I really want one of these journos in the US to try to get him to explain per capita again
