Coronavirus

[Sintiger]

Yeh it's not an enviable task for governments. They have done well on the immediate health front. But the biggest challenge will be in reducing restrictions.

And its where party preference will influence the opinion of the general punter. eg scomo bad for wanting kids back in school, Andrews good for keeping them home. Despite both being presented with the same medical advice. How much influence does the CMO have over the actual decision making?

Eventually the brakes will have to be let off, that will be a shitstorm of a process.

All governments will be listening to their CMOs for sure. There is also a committee of experts ( or called something like that) which includes the most highly credentialed infectious diseases experts in the country and the CMOs.
But ultimately the pollies will make the calls and of course as you point out we will all see those decisions to some extent through the lenses of our own biases and opinions.
I am lucky because I didn’t rate either SCOMO or Andrews before this but I have to say that they both have done a pretty decent job, especially Andrews who I think always seems more certain and consistent than SCOMO. That may be just me.

 

[Giardiasis]

I've changed a little. Never endorsed the NZ style lockdown. Think to have proceeded under your everything stay open policy would have seen US/UK style infection rates and deaths etc. And they have those numbers despite going to restrictions after a short period of business as usual. Imagine if they continued without restrictions? I just can't see how it would not have been a disaster if the restrictions were not applied? Can you?

And we cannot rely on the masses using common sense. But it is definitely time to start considering some changes for the benefit of most Australians. I think people are much more aware of their responsibilty in trying to limit the infection spreading and will behave differently when out.

No I don’t think it would have been a disaster relative to the alternative. Who is this we you refer to? You can’t rely on the masses using common sense, but you can rely on our widely accepted incompetent rulers in government? Spare me.

 

[Giardiasis]

Why do you not respond when questioned on the consequences of the alternative response of being effectively open for business? OS experience shows countries continue for a short period and health systems get overwhelmed and its then shutdown. There shutdowns should theoretically go longer as they have greater infection rates in the community. Surely those long-term consequences are worse both economically and health wise?

I’m the one that was arguing to look at the alternatives! Point is no one did before draconian rules were put in place. What OS experience are you referring to? If what you are saying is true, Sweden should be a zombie land but that isn’t the case.

I don’t think the answer to the last question is a lay down misere, however I would lean towards the answer being no. Short term consequences I’d lean to the answer being yes.

 

[Giardiasis]

It is somewhat amusing that the privacy concern over a Government app. The algorithms Google and Facebook use to track your movements so they can show you the most relevant ads for you. Woolworths and Coles track your spending if you use a reward card when you shop or your mobile phone with downloaded app.

The Government and Police can track your movements from mobile towers.

Can those organisations arrest you? Send you to prison? Lock your credit cards? Shoot you?

 

[Tigers of Old]

Sam Newman still at it. What an absolute flog of a bloke.

 

[MD Jazz]

No I don’t think it would have been a disaster relative to the alternative. Who is this we you refer to? You can’t rely on the masses using common sense, but you can rely on our widely accepted incompetent rulers in government? Spare me.

like most of your ideas they’ll never be tested so we’ll never know hey?

without laws u expect people would have behaved differently?

 

[MD Jazz]

Q&A - Mark Scott promoting a measured steady return. Promoting the idea to listen to the experts that schools are safe.

 

[larabee]

Sam Newman still at it. What an absolute flog of a bloke.

I've got no idea what he's said, but i totally agree

 

[MD Jazz]

mixed messaging is an oft used phrase - essentially people quote mixed messaging when they don’t like the message they are hearing.

 

[Tigers of Old]

I've got no idea what he's said, but i totally agree

Still sooking obsessively about not being able to play golf like a spoiled brat.

 

[spook]

UK doctors issue urgent alert as coronavirus-linked health problems ‘may be emerging in children’

An urgent alert has been issued to doctors about a new coronavirus-related condition seen emerging in children.

The warning says there has been an “apparent rise in the number of children of all ages presenting with a multi-system inflammatory state requiring intensive care across London and also other regions of the UK” over the last three weeks.

The NHS England alert, shared by the Paediatric Intensive Care Society on Sunday evening, adds: “There is a growing concern that a [Covid-19] related inflammatory syndrome is emerging in children in the UK, or that there may be another, as yet unidentified, infectious pathogen associated with these cases.”

The illness has the characteristics of severe Covid-19, and also shares certain features of toxic shock syndrome and atypical Kawasaki Disease.

UK doctors issue urgent alert as coronavirus-linked health problems ‘may be emerging in children’

Illness seen in youngsters who have tested both positive and negative for Covid-19

www.independent.co.uk

 

[tigerdell]

Disagree. There's littlr luck in this sort of thing. It all came down to tracing the spread and taking action based on the numbers coming back and that's exactly what happened. Restrictions increased as numbers went up. It's easy to say in hindsight what should have been done but the proof is in the pudding, Australia one of the lowest death rates in the world, over 100th officially and that's if you believe the figures of Iraq, Pakistan, South Africa and a host of south American and African nations. A high percentage of cases were from cruise ships too. Doesn't really matter what our governments do, there's some out there to bag them regardless.

We can agree to disagree,
I am happy that Australia is in the box seat now.

The problem in other countries was that tracing the spread and taking numbers based on the tracking left those countries wide open for a left hook.
Their approach failed because of asymptomatic cases and insufficient testing and poor tracking processes.
Australia had the later two faults - scroll back through this thread to read about no testing for people returning from os, and honour guidelines for those self isolating in feb and march.
Admittedly its anecdotal. Maybe the pollies had it all tracked and under control *
*except for a cruise ship and an aspen party.
Plenty of near-screw-ups if you ask me. But almost every other country has done the same or worse

 

[LeeToRainesToRoach]

Case count (3am 29/4)

3,105,461 cases
214,429 deaths (6.90%)
56,060 severe (2%)
1,891,430 mild (61%)
943,542 recovered (30%)

Ratio of deaths just starting to decline after almost hitting 7%. That could be an artefact of faulty reporting (e.g. Russia), or it could mean treatment is becoming more effective.

 

[Giardiasis]

like most of your ideas they’ll never be tested so we’ll never know hey?

without laws u expect people would have behaved differently?

Positivism has its uses but they are not as useful as it is widely purported they are and certainly not concerning human action.

I’m not arguing for no laws, never have never will.

 

[mrposhman]

Case count (7:30am)

3,055,651 cases
211,065 deaths (6.91%)
56,446 severe (2%)
1,869,368 mild (61%)
918,772 recovered (30%)

Ratio of deaths just starting to decline after almost hitting 7%. That could be an artefact of faulty reporting (e.g. Russia), or it could mean treatment is becoming more effective.

More than likely the decrease is due to a higher proportion of testing.

 

[Ridley]

I’m the one that was arguing to look at the alternatives! Point is no one did before draconian rules were put in place. What OS experience are you referring to? If what you are saying is true, Sweden should be a zombie land but that isn’t the case.

I don’t think the answer to the last question is a lay down misere, however I would lean towards the answer being no. Short term consequences I’d lean to the answer being yes.

Sweden hey? The country that has 40% of the population of Australia? Yet has 3 times more COVID-19 infections than Australia? Yet has 27 times more COVID-19 deaths than Australia? Yet has 15 times more active cases than Australia?

Yep their all over this thing in Sweden

If you want to argue your case with any merit you may want to hold up a better example than Sweden.

 

[Giardiasis]

Sweden hey? The country that has 40% of the population of Australia? Yet has 3 times more COVID-19 infections than Australia? Yet has 27 times more COVID-19 deaths than Australia? Yet has 15 times more active cases than Australia?

Yep their all over this thing in Sweden

If you want to argue your case with any merit you may want to hold up a better example than Sweden.

You need to be careful with these sorts of comparisons because you could do the exact same thing except compare Sweden to Spain and then the result looks a bit different. The claim is that without lockdowns it would basically lead to disaster in comparison to the alternative of not locking down. Sweden shows that is not necessary the case. We’re also too soon to really see the effect of the lockdown measures, there are arguments that the lockdowns will result in compromised immune systems leading to more sickness down the line.

 

[waiting]

Case count (7:30am)

3,055,651 cases
211,065 deaths (6.91%)
56,446 severe (2%)
1,869,368 mild (61%)
918,772 recovered (30%)

Ratio of deaths just starting to decline after almost hitting 7%. That could be an artefact of faulty reporting (e.g. Russia), or it could mean treatment is becoming more effective.

I would say reporting Lee.

 

[mrposhman]

Geez Trump is a deadest wanker.

No idea why there was a spike in ingestion of detergent. Okkkk. Does he take any responsibility? Nope.

 

[Sintiger]

More than likely the decrease is due to a higher proportion of testing.

yes, could be a lot of things but this is definitely a factor. In some countries testing has been so low that the only people who get tested are those who come to hospital or show symptoms.

I have seen one suggestion made that we do a regime of testing like we do with political polls i.e. a large enough stratified sample across the community is tested in their homes, at work etc and the results used to extrapolate the real level of infection rate and perhaps also give an idea of targeting of testing.

Has some merit imo