With the high contagion impact coupled with the lowered immunity from people having been in isolation the likelihood of more positive testing as the restrictions are eased is highly probable. The following video of a briefing by a couple of doctors in California give some interesting insights into the numbers.
-
IMPORTANT // Please look after your loved ones, yourself and be kind to others. If you are feeling that the world is too hard to handle there is always help - I implore you not to hesitate in contacting one of these wonderful organisations Lifeline and Beyond Blue ... and I'm sure reaching out to our PRE community we will find a way to help. T.
Coronavirus
- Thread starter Tigers of Old
- Start date
With the high contagion impact coupled with the lowered immunity from people having been in isolation the likelihood of more positive testing as the restrictions are eased is highly probable. The following video of a briefing by a couple of doctors in California give some interesting insights into the numbers.
Why do you not respond when questioned on the consequences of the alternative response of being effectively open for business? OS experience shows countries continue for a short period and health systems get overwhelmed and its then shutdown. There shutdowns should theoretically go longer as they have greater infection rates in the community. Surely those long-term consequences are worse both economically and health wise?
From afar it seems like because Aus have been successful in curbing the infection rate, there is a push to call it a win and return to normal. Looking at Singapore that was being held up as the example to follow, we've now been slapped silly here with ~1k infections a day. Full lockdown extended out to June 1st.
Loosening the restrictions too early, especially when Aus is heading into winter, is a very risky move. Certainly a popular move, but risky.
Loosening the restrictions too early, especially when Aus is heading into winter, is a very risky move. Certainly a popular move, but risky.
I don't use google, facebook, twitter etc and have the gps on my phone turned off.
That said, downloading the app looked fine until Amazon was chosen to store the data.
I don't understand the paranoia with giving the government information but no paranoia about giving large unaccountable private companies lots of information.
Interesting article about availability of a vaccine should it be developed, here's an excerpt:
Clearly the distribution of any vaccine is too important to be left to the market, full article here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...y-go-to-the-most-needy-not-the-highest-bidder
If only those who can afford the vaccine get access then the virus continues to circulate around the world infecting people.
DS
It is somewhat amusing that the privacy concern over a Government app. The algorithms Google and Facebook use to track your movements so they can show you the most relevant ads for you. Woolworths and Coles track your spending if you use a reward card when you shop or your mobile phone with downloaded app.
The Government and Police can track your movements from mobile towers.
Brendan Murphy's advice on the risks of opening schools is very much the same as Brett Sutton's. Victoria's response is that they want another 2 weeks of large scale testing and more information about community transmission rates and testing data before making a decision, other states have taken a different approach as has the Commonwealth.
The advice on schools is basically the same from all the CMOs, States and the Commonwealth. The difference is the political reaction to the advice.
Was talking to the wife the other day about putting up a shed to move all the crap from the garage and then started getting shed ads on my phone the next day.
Are you sure the medical experts would be in agreeance on the risks? Do they just present the risks and let governments make the decisions? Haven't many infectious diseases specialists had very different opinions and advice on what the best course of action should be, which is why all around the world there are different strategies? Or would that all be down to the ruling body acting without seeking an opinion from the medical experts?
Interesting article on why kids should be going back to school, from experts in the field.
5 reasons it’s safe for kids to go back to school
More evidence has come in and confirmed what the government has been saying for some time. Children do get infected much less than adults with COVID-19 and when they do, they hardly spread it.
theconversation.com
The market fails public health in poor countries, always has and always will. Vaccines is one very big example.
I am involved in trying to access PPE in the health market now. It's a nightmare with prices skyrocketing. You can place an order one day and have it cancelled the week after because a higher bidder comes in, orders are continually short shipped. Inferior products are substituted for what you order. By the time the market will adjust and supply meets demand it's going to be too late.
The US has had states bidding against each other for the same equipment and consumables.
I hate to think what is going to happen in Africa if and when this thing takes off there. It will be left to the WHO to try and sort it out, minus 12-15% of their budget.
Yes I am sure. They are pretty much in agreement on the risks but what lots of people don't necessarily agree on is how to respond to that risk. Of course infectious diseases experts don't agree always on the actions but their medical advice is pretty much aligned. There is a difference between an opinion based on evidence and science, which is what CMOs do, and an opinion on what is best for the community more broadly.
It's basically as simple as them saying there is a risk between x and y % given the evidence. One premier will say he/she will take the risk, another will say they won't and another will ask for more time and evidence. That essentially what is happening
Very interesting. Someone is studying an increase in excess mortality as opposed to those covid deaths numbers being reported.
Unfortunately China isn't included.
Unfortunately China isn't included.
yes this is very interesting. I posted a couple of weeks ago that someone had done an estimate of funeral numbers in Hubei province during the worst time there and the numbers were 3-4 times higher than the reported deaths. There is a country in South America ( I think Ecuador) which has mortality rates through the roof and even the Government is admittin g they are under reporting
Morrison's daughters haven't been to school for at least six weeks. The bloke can't lie straight in bed.
*He's listening to the experts.*
This thing is still largely unknown. We have no idea of the long term health impacts of an infection. Maybe when he starts listening to the experts on long established science like climate change, more people will listen to him.
*He's listening to the experts.*
This thing is still largely unknown. We have no idea of the long term health impacts of an infection. Maybe when he starts listening to the experts on long established science like climate change, more people will listen to him.
Case count (updated 11:30pm)
3,014,073 cases
207,906 deaths (6.90%)
57,543 severe (2%)
1,860,675 mild (62%)
887,949 recovered (29%)
3,014,073 cases
207,906 deaths (6.90%)
57,543 severe (2%)
1,860,675 mild (62%)
887,949 recovered (29%)
Last edited:
Yeh it's not an enviable task for governments. They have done well on the immediate health front. But the biggest challenge will be in reducing restrictions.
And its where party preference will influence the opinion of the general punter. eg scomo bad for wanting kids back in school, Andrews good for keeping them home. Despite both being presented with the same medical advice. How much influence does the CMO have over the actual decision making?
Eventually the brakes will have to be let off, that will be a shitstorm of a process.
Trust in what the Pollies tell you is key to people believing them. After the Bushfires (lied about being in Hawaii) and SportsRorts still fresh in everyone's mind, it's only natural that people question the motives of ScoMo when he makes declarations others disagree with. If people suspect there is an ulterior motive, they'll believe it until proven otherwise. Basic human nature.
Disagree. There's littlr luck in this sort of thing. It all came down to tracing the spread and taking action based on the numbers coming back and that's exactly what happened. Restrictions increased as numbers went up. It's easy to say in hindsight what should have been done but the proof is in the pudding, Australia one of the lowest death rates in the world, over 100th officially and that's if you believe the figures of Iraq, Pakistan, South Africa and a host of south American and African nations. A high percentage of cases were from cruise ships too. Doesn't really matter what our governments do, there's some out there to bag them regardless.
Are you sure the medical experts would be in agreeance on the risks? Do they just present the risks and let governments make the decisions? Haven't many infectious diseases specialists had very different opinions and advice on what the best course of action should be, which is why all around the world there are different strategies? Or would that all be down to the ruling body acting without seeking an opinion from the medical experts?
Interesting article on why kids should be going back to school, from experts in the field.
5 reasons it’s safe for kids to go back to school
More evidence has come in and confirmed what the government has been saying for some time. Children do get infected much less than adults with COVID-19 and when they do, they hardly spread it.
Every single point in that article is that kids are lower risk than adults, when it comes to both spread and symptoms.
But each point also shows that kids can get it, can spread it and can die from it.
I guess the question is what level of risk are you comfortable with.
You can't just open it up to check, then pump the brakes when everything goes wrong.
Realistically, nobody knows what level of risk is acceptable, and everyone is guessing. There's a really fine line between nothing and overwhelmed.
If we open schools while we have limited testing and tracing, and while there's still undocumented community spread, then there's a real possibility we will end up just like America.
We need to keep everything as low risk as possible while we get the infrastructure in place.
Also, I trust the scientific credentials of those authors, but they clearly haven't been in a school for a while.
'Kids with a cold or other symptoms must stay home from school. And older teachers or those with underlying health conditions that put them at greater risk of complications if infected with SARS-CoV-2 will have altered responsibilities.'
Yeah. Right. Totally manageable.
He he
The teachers in my family are all pre school and primary school. Every one of them gets a cold or the flu at least a couple of times a year passed on from some snotty nosed kid who should have been kept home.
