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AFL Betting Thread
- Thread starter palmyscum
- Start date
easy said:
Good on ya easy, i'm having a good run on the multi's, 3 weeks on the trot now that the bombers look like winning.
Bet Placed Mon, 17 Apr 2017
12:49
Leg 1
Geelong
Hawthorn vs Geelong
Leg 2
Port Adelaide
Port Adelaide vs Carlton
Leg 3
Western Bulldogs
Western Bulldogs vs Brisbane
Leg 4
Essendon
Essendon vs Collingwood
Thank your mother for the rabbits.
Al Bundy said:Crows $1.18 vs Tiges $4.90for this week. Sportsbet. Put a lazy $5 for us to win
(with the bonus power play odds went to $5.20)
Enjoy small bets to have fun with betting.
Good luck AB.
For no extra outlay you can All Up the Tiges with the Dockers at $3, that would be even more fun
E
easy_tiger
Guest
Al Bundy said:
good advice Bundy.
I'll have half my stake on Tigers with a 30 point start at evens, and half on h2h @$5.
a saver should always be able to cover your loss if things go wrong, and add to your win if things go right.
I'm on. Ladbrokes and Centrebet have us at $5.25. Crown has us at $5.50.
The $5.75 Sportsbet put up about Richmond to beat Adelaide was massive overs. It's now $4.95.
I usually only bet at the tri line. The usual tri line. -15.5. That isn't the case this year. We're not covering it.
What we are doing is coming from behind. They are betting insane prices in running about us. Even though it may seem a fraction unders at the time (even the bookies have noticed we're barnstormers).
We bank the run in the first half. And the plays. That's what it looks like to me. So we can pull the trigger earlier if we want. It's just that it's not as effective if you go in the first half. (We have bursts to stay in the game.)
Given that we may beat Adelaide (I think we probably will), the $21 for the flag might look like an investment. It's not.
Whatever you want to have on the flag you have H2H this week and let it ride. (You can save at approx +10.5 if you want. I won't.) The fact is if we are some kind of smokey for the flag we'd want to be OUTCLASSING Adelaide this week.
I think Adelaide is a fraud. But maybe everybody is. Maybe beating them is enough.
It's time to bet.
The $5.75 Sportsbet put up about Richmond to beat Adelaide was massive overs. It's now $4.95.
I usually only bet at the tri line. The usual tri line. -15.5. That isn't the case this year. We're not covering it.
What we are doing is coming from behind. They are betting insane prices in running about us. Even though it may seem a fraction unders at the time (even the bookies have noticed we're barnstormers).
We bank the run in the first half. And the plays. That's what it looks like to me. So we can pull the trigger earlier if we want. It's just that it's not as effective if you go in the first half. (We have bursts to stay in the game.)
Given that we may beat Adelaide (I think we probably will), the $21 for the flag might look like an investment. It's not.
Whatever you want to have on the flag you have H2H this week and let it ride. (You can save at approx +10.5 if you want. I won't.) The fact is if we are some kind of smokey for the flag we'd want to be OUTCLASSING Adelaide this week.
I think Adelaide is a fraud. But maybe everybody is. Maybe beating them is enough.
It's time to bet.
E
easy_tiger
Guest
Dyer'ere said:
I think The Crows are far from fraudulent, but I couldnt agree more that $5 to beat them is far, far better value than $20 the flag or $3 the final 4.
I think we are a very good chance to win, but I think saving on a sub 6 goal loss at evens is prudent.
its a bit of an anything could happen type match.
Edit: weve picked a fast, tough, chaos ball side. This has taken anything could happen to a whole new level. I love it. Do or Die. Punt like no one is watching. which they arent, if your discreet, and dont telegraph all your bets on the internet.
E
easy_tiger
Guest
few of us have been licking our wounds this week.
I even disinfected mine in some old Barbados rum a bookie bought me a few weeks ago.
worked a treat. Wouldnt be touching the tigers with Donald Trumps money this week.
we could easily bounce back, but you could also easily get 3 black Aces on a poker machine.
I think we'll be 8-3 at the bye, which is pretty good.
I cant envisage any tiger upsets, or value wins before that. Could get some historical value against Norf in Rd11
I think the next lucrative tiger punting opportunity wont come until R18. V GWS @ The G
I think my front 11 is punted, and im pretty happy. :fing32
I even disinfected mine in some old Barbados rum a bookie bought me a few weeks ago.
worked a treat. Wouldnt be touching the tigers with Donald Trumps money this week.
we could easily bounce back, but you could also easily get 3 black Aces on a poker machine.
I think we'll be 8-3 at the bye, which is pretty good.
I cant envisage any tiger upsets, or value wins before that. Could get some historical value against Norf in Rd11
I think the next lucrative tiger punting opportunity wont come until R18. V GWS @ The G
I think my front 11 is punted, and im pretty happy. :fing32
easy said:few of us have been licking our wounds this week.
I even disinfected mine in some old Barbados rum a bookie bought me a few weeks ago.
worked a treat. Wouldnt be touching the tigers with Donald Trumps money this week.
we could easily bounce back, but you could also easily get 3 black Aces on a poker machine.
I think we'll be 8-3 at the bye, which is pretty good.
I cant envisage any tiger upsets, or value wins before that. Could get some historical value against Norf in Rd11
I think the next lucrative tiger punting opportunity wont come until R18. V GWS @ The G
I think my front 11 is punted, and im pretty happy. :fing32
I had my first real football bet in eighteen months, easy. Ouch. I don't like that we didn't rally after three-quarter time. And I don't like being wrong. That hurt almost as much as the money.
My next bet will be in running when we're down and I can see the writing on the wall. Other than that cue in rack for now.
On the eight, I'd much rather be on than where I am.
MD Jazz said:
There's $3 approx around, MD. (Bet365) It's a lot better than odds on. Haven't checked the 'Fair.
E
easy_tiger
Guest
MD Jazz said:
that would represent an acute punting panic.
panic is the punters enemy.
Dyer'ere said:
Those that were right have mostly been wrong the first 5 round Capn, so go easy on yourself.
The other obvious fiscal and emotional kudos that is implied by your first statement, is that you didnt back us all 2016 :fing32
fortune will continue to favour the brave.
I never bet live for the reason outlined above.
E
easy_tiger
Guest
spook said:
in good form spook.
Ive been wrestling with mild punter panic with my 8 bet.
but a punter must draw on all available resources to stay calm.
The bookies have cash out, double down (its double up you *smile*), and all those other gimmicks and gadgets to nurture panic and undermine a punters equilibrium.
they know well that a calm punter is far more likely to take their cash and buy stuff with it.
so, I spent an hour on the ladder predictor, just to remind myself of the calm punt state.
I think I was pretty conservative, and can comfortably get us 14 wins, 2 games clear of 9th.
I reckon if you want to lay, double up or down, or cash out, go to a brothel or woolworths.
Im here to punt, and bookies dont scare me.
spook said:
Well done spook.
I had a hunch that the Roos were a chance because of their win loss record in Hobart and when Waite is in the side.
So i took a multi
Roos, Tigers, Dockers.
Roos, Dogs, Dockers.
Layed off the Dockers and backed the Bombers to win, snipped some of my winnings but i had to it.
E
easy_tiger
Guest
tigerman said:
good punting TM. I was wondering who'd have thought Norf?
see my notes above on laying :hihi
