AFL Betting Thread

[tigerman]

West Coast 1-39pts tonight.

Think they will be 5goals up at 3q time and get over the line by approx 15pts.

I've gone the other way, I reckon off s 5 day break the Eagles are vulnerable, Swans 1-39 paying $4

 

[Leysy Days]

Haha the ratchet. Love it ET.

 

[Dyer'ere]

It a ratcheted approach Capn.

once you feel you have the top 8 covered (which I dont by a long stretch, but you have to stay a step ahead of the filthy bookies, as you suggest), you ratchet it up to Top 4.

If it becomes apparent you have the top 4 covered, you ratchet up to the grandfinal.

then when your in the GF, collected on your 8 and 4, you book the penthouse at Crown, get titanium tickets to the brownlow and the GF, and have half the remainder of your winnings on the Flag. :hihi

if youve gone early and hard on the first click of your ratchet, then the odds on subsequent clicks are largely, but not entirely, irrelevant. The main assumption of this ratcheted approach (which ive implemented with success on margins on single

game) , is that you either have, or are pretty confident that your ratchet cant slip back past the first peg. Using this approach, when the first click is largely un-slippable, that should remain an even

money profit, and then you ratchet aggressively

Its an allegorical algorithm based on the punting truism that betting with bookies money is easy, with the ratchet avoiding losing heavy loads entirely. :theyareontome

I call this approach, The Ratchet.

:hihi

 

[Barnzy]

It is scary betting on us but Richmond -17.5 is a good bet. Reckon it's out by a couple goals. Great record over them with big wins. I don't see how their young forward line scores on Rance, Grimes, Astbury. Too experienced.

 

[Brodders17]

It is scary betting on us but Richmond -17.5 is a good bet. Reckon it's out by a couple goals. Great record over them with big wins. I don't see how their young forward line scores on Rance, Grimes, Astbury. Too experienced.

Dont forget Houli, Conca and BEllis. it is hard to see how anyone will score against us.

 

[Barnzy]

Easy money.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Easy money.

Yep. Nice spot, Barnzy.

 

[jb03]

Easy money.

A yep from me too Barnzy. Had a piece after i read your post. It was never in doubt.

 

[TigerForce]

Easy money.

Beating those dud bookies is my fave. ;D

Swans 0-4
Richmond 4-0

Both at 20/1 for the flag. :hihi

 

[Leysy Days]

A yep from me too Barnzy. Had a piece after i read your post. It was never in doubt.

Same.

Thread on absolute fire this year.

 

[jb03]

Same.

Thread on absolute fire this year.

:fing32

 

[easy_tiger]

Swans 0-4
Richmond 4-0

Both at 20/1 for the flag. :hihi

that sort of ineptitude by bookies, is rare, but it happens.

and recognising it is the key to the punter winning.

we dont have to win the flag to profit, you just need to be vigilant to these moments of ineptitude, and go at them from all angles.

right now, theres more angles than at The Crystal Castle.

 

[easy_tiger]

looking a little ahead, tigers $4.75 V Crows $1.20

that could well turn out to be the biggest odds disparity in a top of the table clash in the history of the world.

I suspect it could turn out to be gross bookmaker incompetence also.

get aboard tiger punters. save on a 30 pt start at evens.

 

[Leysy Days]

Pass on that one for leysy ET.

 

[easy_tiger]

Pass on that one for leysy ET.

Talia's hammy pretty good for the early adopter.

 

[scottyturnerscurse]

The $26 for us to win the VFL flag is much better value.

This is humming along nicely. Great spot. Should be about $5-$7 when markets re-open on Monday/Tuesday. I might cash a couple out to get in the black but let the big berthas ride all the way to September.

 

[easy_tiger]

Im betting on us having a fast start. I'm betting on us being near 5-0 when we go to Adelaide. And we'll be $1.80 for the 8.

someone once said, sometimes you gotta quote yourself.

jeez. except I think we're $1.75

 

[MD Jazz]

someone once said, sometimes you gotta quote yourself.

jeez. except I think we're $1.75

Great call. Was it about 20/1 being 5-0?

 

[spook]

This is humming along nicely. Great spot. Should be about $5-$7 when markets re-open on Monday/Tuesday. I might cash a couple out to get in the black but let the big berthas ride all the way to September.

I'll ride it a while longer, scotty.

someone once said, sometimes you gotta quote yourself.

jeez. except I think we're $1.75

You earned the indulgence, brother.

 

[easy_tiger]

Great call. Was it about 20/1 being 5-0?

I played the long game and backed us for the 8 preseason Jazz.

But ive been snowballing the H2h's as well and am enjoying a lucrative season thus far, with the spectre of a handsome bonus in September ;D

happy days