AFL Betting Thread

[easy_tiger]

We are very comfortable outsiders against the coasters - should work for us.

We are going to give this weeks game a real shake

Its a bit of a perfect punting storm yot. In solid form, 5/4 outsiders, on the G.

My $ will be on h2h. No cute margins or anything.

 

[easy_tiger]

Jeez The Chimp for the brownlow at 50-1 is extreme value.

tracking at about 40 votes on current trajectory.

 

[Dyer'ere]

I doubled down on our VFL side this arvo. Drinks on me when we win the flag.

All the $26 and $21 is gone with Ladbrokes and Sportsbet. I was too late. :hihi


On this week's game Rich v WCE.

I have five salient rules.

1/ Rounds 1-5 are the Phoney Season. Do not bet on matches.

2/ Lay a side that squeaked a win the previous week. Particularly to lose by a margin. They are riding for a hiding.

3/ Back a side that squandered scoring opportunities the previous week. Particularly to win by a margin. They are dangerous.

4/ Break one rule.

5/ Temper bets when bullish.

WCE were useless last week. But they squeaked the win against StK. (I'm not on board the StK bandwagon. Meh.) We should've had ten goals at half time last week but for hilarious ball use forward of centre.

Bets at the margin for me. Tempered size because I'm bullish. And it is Phoney Season. I'm on.

 

[spook]

All the $26 and $21 is gone with Ladbrokes and Sportsbet. I was too late. :hihi

We're still $26 with centrebet, mate.

 

[spook]

Bet of the week for me is Melbourne at $3.10 to beat Dangeelwood. Cats fell over the line against a bottom four side last week, an hour or so before Port put their R1 win over Freo into perspective. No Hogan I know, but teams generally cover that kind of loss pretty well in the first week.

The other game I'm interested in is Carlton-Essendon. The drug cheats might be due for a slight let-down after the high of beating Hawthorn and a struggle to win in Brisbane last week. I'm more inclined to back the Blues with the 27.5 head start, but if Cripps is named I might have a little H2H at $4.75 as well.

 

[Dyer'ere]

We're still $26 with centrebet, mate.

They only let you get $20 on. You've obviously scarred them. 365 let me on at $23.

Bet of the week for me is Melbourne at $3.10 to beat Dangeelwood. Cats fell over the line against a bottom four side last week, an hour or so before Port put their R1 win over Freo into perspective. No Hogan I know, but teams generally cover that kind of loss pretty well in the first week.

The other game I'm interested in is Carlton-Essendon. The drug cheats might be due for a slight let-down after the high of beating Hawthorn and a struggle to win in Brisbane last week. I'm more inclined to back the Blues with the 27.5 head start, but if Cripps is named I might have a little H2H at $4.75 as well.

Good get, brother. Melbourne overs.

 

[spook]

They only let you get $20 on. You've obviously scarred them. 365 let me on at $23.

Ladbrokes only partially accepted my bet at $26 so they could wind it in to $21. I got on live chat, told them to *smile* themselves and put the rest on with Sportsbet and Centrebet.

Good get, brother. Melbourne overs.

The other overs are Port.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Ladbrokes only partially accepted my bet at $26 so they could wind it in to $21. I got on live chat, told them to *smile* themselves and put the rest on with Sportsbet and Centrebet.
The other overs are Port.

Could you get more than $20 on with Centrebet?

 

[tigersnake]

Ladbrokes only partially accepted my bet at $26 so they could wind it in to $21. I got on live chat, told them to *smile* themselves and put the rest on with Sportsbet and Centrebet.

what a joke

 

[spook]

Could you get more than $20 on with Centrebet?

Nope. When I asked why, the chat person said there shouldn't be a limit.

what a joke

They reckoned it was just a coincidence and that they were winding it in anyway, but having worked for one before I'm pretty sure they're watching me (they watch everyone) and have me marked as a 'tough' punter.

They removed my access from promo markets and odds boost because I wasn't using them in the right 'spirit' (i.e. I was winning!). Bookies, even corporate ones, take it very personally when you help yourself to their money. They're gutless weasel hypocrites compared to their marketing images, which is why it's so much fun taking their cash.

 

[tigersnake]

Nope. When I asked why, the chat person said there shouldn't be a limit.
They reckoned it was just a coincidence and that they were winding it in anyway, but having worked for one before I'm pretty sure they're watching me (they watch everyone) and have me marked as a 'tough' punter.

They removed my access from promo markets and odds boost because I wasn't using them in the right 'spirit' (i.e. I was winning!). Bookies, even corporate ones, take it very personally when you help yourself to their money. They're gutless weasel hypocrites compared to their marketing images, which is why it's so much fun taking their cash.

I'm sure it is, but yah its Pathetic. I don't bet online, don't bet much at all, but easy who does reckons they are charlatans. Our pop was an SP bookie. If you're toey about taking a bet, you lay it off. Wouldn't have happened in his day.

 

[spook]

I'm sure it is, but yah its Pathetic. I don't bet online, don't bet much at all, but easy who does reckons they are charlatans. Our pop was an SP bookie. If you're toey about taking a bet, you lay it off. Wouldn't have happened in his day.

Exactamundo. Smart bookies use smart punters as leads.

I'm pretty sure their issue with me was I was using Odds Boost to get odds better than anywhere else.

 

[Leysy Days]

Yep, and there pretty much all the same on that front Spook.

Haven't had time to fully look into the form yet, but have a few sheckles after the easy money on the Crows last week.

The one leysy does like this week at the moment are the Pies at $3.40 H2H and the 20.5 pt line.

Sydney have a very very poor and inexperienced bottom 6 to 8 ATM and Collingwood have copped heaps all week.

The trip away will do them good.

Think they win, and very sure they cover the line.

 

[Leysy Days]

Ripper discussion BTW

 

[an_oxford_man]

Ladbrokes only partially accepted my bet at $26 so they could wind it in to $21. I got on live chat, told them to *smile* themselves and put the rest on with Sportsbet and Centrebet.
The other overs are Port.

What *smile*. Laddies are completely gutless, Spook. Good on you for letting him know what *smile* they are.

 

[Leysy Days]

Lets pilfer the *smile* this weekend.

 

[an_oxford_man]

Nope. When I asked why, the chat person said there shouldn't be a limit.
They reckoned it was just a coincidence and that they were winding it in anyway, but having worked for one before I'm pretty sure they're watching me (they watch everyone) and have me marked as a 'tough' punter.

They removed my access from promo markets and odds boost because I wasn't using them in the right 'spirit' (i.e. I was winning!). Bookies, even corporate ones, take it very personally when you help yourself to their money. They're gutless weasel hypocrites compared to their marketing images, which is why it's so much fun taking their cash.

They rob the diseased and ban everyone else. Good for you for getting some of their's, Spook. Personally, my ever growing hatred of the corporates has enhanced my discipline. As my old man says, if they're not obviously watching your account you shouldn't be betting at all.

Lets pilfer the *smile*ers this weekend.

I've got high hopes, Leysy. I need that *smile* track to dry out in Sydney.

 

[easy_tiger]

. They're gutless weasel hypocrites compared to their marketing images, which is why it's so much fun taking their cash.

:hihi

they are as weak as p!ss. I bet in cash only.

ive had a couple of run ins at the pub I bet at.

1. A couple of times (winx cox plate 2015, richmond V hawks 2015) they tried to pay me by cheque. I couldnt believe it, I said to the Publican 'i bet in cash, and youlle *smile*ing pay me in cash. go to the bank. I'll wait'

2. I once lined up to collect more than $10K and they asked me for identification. I said "get *smile*ed, you dont ask me for ID when i lose, just *smile*ing pay and i'll give you an hours pay' they paid sin ID.

3. When you scan a winning ticket in the machine, it plays a little triumphant jingle really loud and everyone looks to see how much you won. I go to the publican "I come in here cause the machine is in a dark corner and I can punt discreetly. If I
wanted a stupid jingle alerting everyone what im up to, I'd play the *smile*ing pokies" he couldnt turn it off, but turned it down.

like snake said, if i lived in the big smoke, id go to the races and bet with blokes like our pop, who'de scribble on a bit of cardboard with a crayon.

I've got high hopes, Leysy. I need that *smile*in track to dry out in Sydney.

aint gonna happen GJ, back the ducks, theres plenty of 'em.

Personally, my ever growing hatred of the corporates has enhanced my discipline.

successful punting is all about discipline. A practice ive introduced into my punting this season (I punt in campaigns - footy season, spring carnival, autumn carnival basically), is a meticulous punting ledger.

every in and out is recorded. I'd highly recommend it. It has straightening me right up, eliminated the ill-disciplined, ill-considered bets . It turns it into a steady challenge to , as spook so eloquently said, take the gutless weasel hypocrites cash.

BTW, my ledger shows that ive covered my Tigers for the 8 wager @$4, to which I allocated 50% of my season budget, in the first 2 rounds ;D

 

[tigersnake]

aint gonna happen GJ, back the ducks, theres plenty of 'em.

I reckon it will dry out a fair bit. Sunny today and 5% chance of shower tomorrow.

 

[easy_tiger]

I reckon it will dry out a fair bit. Sunny today and 5% chance of shower tomorrow.

plan for heavy.

I threw a plate feeding the chooks this morning.