AFL Betting Thread

[Leysy Days]

Leysy's all cashed up after killing a pig last weekend on Sydney & Thompson.

There's only one I like this weekend & have already got on in a big way.

The Collingwood bubble will burst this weekend lads, sure they have a good forward line & a steady backline. BUT their achilles heel IS going to be found out this weekend I reckon.

The wide open & dry ground of Subiaco is going to find the pies SLOW midfield of Licuria, O'Bree, Holland, Burns & Swan out on sat night against the quickest centreline in the league.

The above players are going to be like the guy off the Beetlejuice movie with their heads spinning around trying to find out which way Judd, Kerr & Cousins amongst others have gone.

Throw in the fact that Buckley hasnt made the trip & the psyche this will have on his teamates & we have a bet to rival last weeks bet of the year on the swans at the line.

The 16.5 pts line on the game is UNBELIEVABLY generous & Leysy has gone all-in with his profits from last week on West Coast to beat the above line.

What are other punters thoughts on the round

 

[hawker21]

Heres my preview of tonights match between the sainters and geelong.

Preview

Friday night footy this week is between 2 teams that have both shown less then expected of them this year with the saints sitting 3-3 but scraping away with the win against the bulldogs last week against Geelong which now site 2-4 after 4 straight losses and in need for a desperate win to stay in touch with the top 8.

Geelong gets a couple of big names in King and Harley but will be without Cameron Mooney. Saints will be out with a couple of big names without milne and kozi, "thumbs up" he may be back soon.

Last time these 2 sides met Saints ran away with it in the second half for a 41 point victory at the Dome.

Saints have been a great team at the Dome for quite some time now winning there last 8 games which includes snapping the doggies 9 game winning streak there last week, over these matches there they have a average of 122 points there and keepi there opposition to an avg of 75. The highest score opppistion has scored is 87 and saints have not been under that once.

Cats dont have a good record at the Dome either losing their last 4 there.

I dont think theres much working in the cats favour here from past records and current form and for the stats minded an interesting stat this year so far in FNF the home team has won ATS 5-1 and 3-0 as Home Favourite.

Dont see it being no different tonight.

1 unit St Kilda -9.5 @ $2.00




High Goalscorer Value
Each week I always put in my input on high goalscorer and this week looking no further then the favourite in big fraser @ 3.25. Reiwoldt @ 6.00 always chips in with a consistent 3 goals or so against geelong and has been consistent this year aswell and does have the potential to be up there at the end. Big fraser though was back in form last week with a match winning 6 goals after a fairly slow start to the season but still kicking his 3 or so goals. At the dome this yar he is averaging 3.7 and if he can manage just 4 tonight should be enough to be the high goalscorer tonight.

Value: Fraser Gehrig @ $3.25

Most Disposals Value
Most Disposals this week is between the following players ( hayes 4.50, dal santo 5.00, ling 5.50, corey 5.50, harvey 6.50, ball 9.00, bartell 9.00, enright 9.00 )

Looking past the favourite here, Lenny Hayes has had a great start to the season but the last few weeks his posession count has dropped away a bit with 22,22 and 20 his last 3. Joel Corey has been pretty similar to Lenny having a blistering start to the season with the last few weeks quieting back down and he does seem to play alot better at home.
Cameron Ling was back in form last week racking up 31 for the cats and has a good past vs St Kilda though this week im going to go with the inform Nick Dal Santo @ $5.50. Last week Dal got 34 possies and has been red hot all year. including an average of 28.7 possies in his 3 games at home.

Value: Nick Dal Santo @ $5.50

 

[palmyscum]

Leysy's all cashed up after killing a pig last weekend on Sydney & Thompson.

There's only one I like this weekend & have already got on in a big way.

The Collingwood bubble will burst this weekend lads, sure they have a good forward line & a steady backline. BUT their achilles heel IS going to be found out this weekend I reckon.

The wide open & dry ground of Subiaco is going to find the pies SLOW midfield of Licuria, O'Bree, Holland, Burns & Swan out on sat night against the quickest centreline in the league.

The above players are going to be like the guy off the Beetlejuice movie with their heads spinning around trying to find out which way Judd, Kerr & Cousins amongst others have gone.

Throw in the fact that Buckley hasnt made the trip & the psyche this will have on his teamates & we have a bet to rival last weeks bet of the year on the swans at the line.

The 16.5 pts line on the game is UNBELIEVABLY generous & Leysy has gone all-in with his profits from last week on West Coast to beat the above line.

What are other punters thoughts on the round

i hope ur right!!! i hate them so much and the people who follow them

the only thing personally i would be worried about is that for the last 3 weeks ive been saying their bubble will burst and they have belted sides!!

i too think the eagles will be feasting on some magpie meat after last week's performance

 

[hawker21]

Leysy's all cashed up after killing a pig last weekend on Sydney & Thompson.

There's only one I like this weekend & have already got on in a big way.

The Collingwood bubble will burst this weekend lads, sure they have a good forward line & a steady backline. BUT their achilles heel IS going to be found out this weekend I reckon.

The wide open & dry ground of Subiaco is going to find the pies SLOW midfield of Licuria, O'Bree, Holland, Burns & Swan out on sat night against the quickest centreline in the league.

The above players are going to be like the guy off the Beetlejuice movie with their heads spinning around trying to find out which way Judd, Kerr & Cousins amongst others have gone.

Throw in the fact that Buckley hasnt made the trip & the psyche this will have on his teamates & we have a bet to rival last weeks bet of the year on the swans at the line.

The 16.5 pts line on the game is UNBELIEVABLY generous & Leysy has gone all-in with his profits from last week on West Coast to beat the above line.

What are other punters thoughts on the round

i hope ur right!!! i hate them so much and the people who follow them

the only thing personally i would be worried about is that for the last 3 weeks ive been saying their bubble will burst and they have belted sides!!

i too think the eagles will be feasting on some magpie meat after last week's performance

There bubble will burst mate they definately wont be sitting on top the rest of the year

Cmon Weagles.

 

[mainlandy]

My TAB pick 8 for this week. I'll be out by tonight.

geelong
melbourne
fremantle
richmond
sydney
brisbane
west coast
port adelaide
essendon
adelaide

West Coast by over 39 1/2 might be a good bet.

 

[FightingFury]

Simon Beasley on SEN this morning rated the tigers at the line as his bet of the round ..............vewwy interesting.

 

[Redford]

Leysy's all cashed up after killing a pig last weekend on Sydney & Thompson.

There's only one I like this weekend & have already got on in a big way.

The Collingwood bubble will burst this weekend lads, sure they have a good forward line & a steady backline. BUT their achilles heel IS going to be found out this weekend I reckon.

The wide open & dry ground of Subiaco is going to find the pies SLOW midfield of Licuria, O'Bree, Holland, Burns & Swan out on sat night against the quickest centreline in the league.

The above players are going to be like the guy off the Beetlejuice movie with their heads spinning around trying to find out which way Judd, Kerr & Cousins amongst others have gone.

Throw in the fact that Buckley hasnt made the trip & the psyche this will have on his teamates & we have a bet to rival last weeks bet of the year on the swans at the line.

The 16.5 pts line on the game is UNBELIEVABLY generous & Leysy has gone all-in with his profits from last week on West Coast to beat the above line.

What are other punters thoughts on the round

I'm likin' that line on the WCE v Scumwood game as well Boozy Days.

 

[FightingFury]

Hard to find any value this weekend.

Maybe the Dogs @ $2.50 against the PoxPower??

The High-Low maybe the go this weekend.
St Kilda/Adelaide Highs.....Richmond/Swans the lows....I reckon our game will be a real wrestle.

Nice collect on the dogs.

Got half of the lows right.....just the high was also nominated as the low :hihi

I hope Daisy,Rednose and Impart didn't do their wind squalls on the Weagles :-\

 

[palmyscum]

i did my arse this week but not as bad as i could have...

 

[Leysy Days]

the one punt Leysy had on the pies turned sour when Dane Swan dobbed that goal from 50 at the 29 minute mark, & then Embleys snap just missed seconds later. :'(

Must say I have underestimated the pies, I really thought the eagles would slaughter them over there.

 

[Redford]

Yep. Copped a caning as well. Bloody WCE….. I thought they would have covered the line easy.

To make matters worse, I tried to make a recovery by backing Essendon to beat the line (which I would never have done if I had known about all their last minute withdrawals and that it was also gonna bucket down on Sunday), but came a cropper on that one as well.

Bad punting weekend. Very bad.

 

[jb03]

Yep. Copped a caning as well. Bloody WCE….. I thought they would have covered the line easy.

To make matters worse, I tried to make a recovery by backing Essendon to beat the line (which I would never have done if I had known about all their last minute withdrawals and that it was also gonna bucket down on Sunday), but came a cropper on that one as well.

Bad punting weekend. Very bad.

Stayed off the footy but managed to lose on the golf again. Layed Scott for a bit of dough but layed the guy who won after the second round. And that on top of backing Furyk to go back to back victories. Silly bugger didn't even make the cut.

 

[evo]

bad weekend for me too.

I have a fair bit on the Fev for the Coleman at very tasty odds though-looking promising.I knew Richmond not trading for him would propell him to greatness.

 

[Leysy Days]

Leysy snared 25's & better on Fraser for the coleman as well Evo Rock.

its still a very wide open field, 70 odd goals will be enough to win you'd reckon

 

[hawker21]

most had a bad round I think.

I went 1-2 for -1.09 units

But in a unposted fun play was able to get 17-1 on J Brown high goalscorer for the round as thought he would be on Zac Dawson, he didnt end up lining up there but still got the high of round with 8.


Must agree Leysy 70 will prob come close this year, with 80 wrapping it up.

 

[Redford]

bad weekend for me too.

I have a fair bit on the Fev for the Coleman at very tasty odds though-looking promising.I knew Richmond not trading for him would propell him to greatness.

Yeah, where are those Fevola threads ? Hmmmm....

 

[jb03]

Yep. Copped a caning as well. Bloody WCE….. I thought they would have covered the line easy.

To make matters worse, I tried to make a recovery by backing Essendon to beat the line (which I would never have done if I had known about all their last minute withdrawals and that it was also gonna bucket down on Sunday), but came a cropper on that one as well.

Bad punting weekend. Very bad.

Oh I forgot. How many times are we going to have to tell you to stop backing the Bummers. Where did this love for Essendon come from?

 

[FightingFury]

Two bets for me at the moment.

One is Adelaide for over 39....unfortunately its a given.
Im also backing up on the Dawgs at 2.30 after last weeks collect on them.
Reckon they can beat Sydney up there.

Who's on Essendon in Perth?? ;D

 

[Leysy Days]

uninspiring betting round for mine after last weeks tragic near miss on the eagles.

not sure about the dogs up there struggles but adel overs does look the best bet if you want to go with your head & not your heart.

 

[Bunnerz]

geelong to win, only bet