AFL Betting Thread | PUNT ROAD END | Richmond Tigers Forum
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AFL Betting Thread

im thinking

highs are collingwood and crows

low - freo or saints its going to be a scrapper at tassie on sunday

and most disposals for bowden at $5 is good odds but RYAN HOULIHAN seems the best bet at $5.75 coming off a 35 possey game and leading the disposal count by a fair bit
 
Tough betting round I reckon red. Low scoring game tonight is my tip, trying to get a bet on under 185.5 match total but no joy as yet.

West coast could do some damage against Brissie so maybe the 39 +, not sure what odds that is. I'd take $1.80 plus.
 
Havent been on here for a while but it looks like you guts defiantely love the "PUNT" :D

anyone I have did my preview for tonights match and here it is.

Richmond vs. Carlton
Friday 28th April at M.C.G. 7:40pm AEST

Tonights match features the the 2 wooden spoon favourites with both teams currently on 1 win and 3 losses.

Richmond has been bagged alot at the start the year how bad they are but if we take a look at there opponents so far in losses to Western, St Kilda and West Coast and then a win over Brisbane we can see that they have had alot tougher run then what Carlton has had so far playing against 3 top 4 sides.

Carlton have had a win opening round vs Melbourne to then lose all in competitive games to Fremantle, Sydney and Hawthorn.

This week Carlton will regain much needed forwards in Jarrod Waite from injury and Brendan Fevola from suspension.

Fev has been in great form this year kicking 14 goals in the first 3 games and does have a record of kicking a couple of bags vs Richmond.

Last time these 2 teams played Carlton won by 35 points at the Telstra Dome but it is a much different story at the G of recent times with Carlton only winning 1 of 7 games there and Richmond 5 of there last 7.

Richmond did win Traveling Interstate last week and there has been a bit of a trend this year to oppose these teams the next week back home as they seem to have a letdown week.

This week though im still sticking with what I think is the better team in Richmond as Carlton has to be more then juust competitive agains these weaker sides and learn how to win in these close games.

Richmond 1-39 @ $2.40




High Goalscorer Value

If you looking for any value in the High Goal scorer market you cant go past the Favourite here Brendan Fevola @ $2.50. Having an outstanding start to the year as mentioned already kicked 14 goals in the first 3 games and will be relied on heavily here to help Carlton win the game.

Most Disposals Value
Note players here include(Tuck, Couglan, Johnson, Bowden, Kouta, Stevens, Houlihan, Lappin)

This week the best value I see in this bunch is Joel Bowden, having a very consistent year so far avg 24.5 disposals and 29 when at home in vic. He has a great past against Carlton and could easily eack up a lazy 30 tonight. Definately has some value here.

Value Bet here Joel Bowden $5.50
 
jb03 said:
Tough betting round I reckon red. Low scoring game tonight is my tip, trying to get a bet on under 185.5 match total but no joy as yet.

West coast could do some damage against Brissie so maybe the 39 +, not sure what odds that is. I'd take $1.80 plus.
Click to expand...

If you can get them odds JB snap them up.
 
Good round for punting i reckon

agree on WC overs, you'll get that & more at betfair JB.

Adel are shoe-ins at $1.70 to beat WB

I reckon Kangas are a top little bet at $2.34, they can be too tough in the middle for the dees.

Port & Essendon are also worth little nibbles on sunday as well.....

good luck.
 
Not sure about Crows leysy and i've been on their bandwagon for some time. Burton and Perrie out, Edwards likely to be out. Bullies won't get a better chance.

And I snapped up $1.80 on BF for Coasters, first bet on that market!

Game backing the bummers Redders, not sure if they are any good.
 
jb03 said:
Tough betting round I reckon red. Low scoring game tonight is my tip, trying to get a bet on under 185.5 match total but no joy as yet.

West coast could do some damage against Brissie so maybe the 39 +, not sure what odds that is. I'd take $1.80 plus.
Click to expand...

Well I had a lucky win on the tigers-blues total match score. Should have ben well over 200 points except for the well publicised poor kicking.

The $1.80 I took about West Coast winning by over 39 was unders. You can get $2.08 now. Must be raining over there. I think I'll go back for another crack.
 
great start to the round for me with the tiges coming in :D

Other Bets I have taken as value this round include

1 unit Geelong @ $1.86

1 unit Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.75

1 unit Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.40


Also still thoughts on the Kangaroos and Freo lines.
 
hawker21 said:
great start to the round for me with the tiges coming in :D

Other Bets I have taken as value this round include

1 unit Geelong @ $1.86

1 unit Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $2.75

1 unit Hawthorn 1-39 @ $2.40


Also still thoughts on the Kangaroos and Freo lines.
Click to expand...

Not good so far hawker. Cats disappointing. bulldogs smashed.

Good for jb though, eagles by 39+ in a canter.
 
Crows shoe ins as publicised JB.....they r the best & most consistent team in comp IMO

1.70 unbelievable, they were 1.35 against a very very good WCE outfit who they admitantly just got rolled against, how can they be double that against a far far inferior team..........

also took WC overs as earlier stated........another case of put in & take out.......

didnt see the game at all but kangas have dropped a bit on me espesh if sunday results go as earlier publicised....doh but as they say thats punting
 
*smile* Essenscum ! Darn Monfries (good player but) cost me a bucket !

Just as well I have $100 with a Essenscum supporter that they won't make the 8.

Geez !
 
I had doubles with the Kangas going into essendon..................

I would have been spewin had I been alive going into the bombers game.
 
Pretty good week for jb on the footy punt after thinking it was a tough week. Backed Freo straight out and at the line to ease the pain of the farcical finish. Got the chockies with the Coasters, lucky with the rich/carl total game score. Lost on the swans/cats total game score.

Long range bets looking ok too.

Backed pies (solid), demons (iffy) and tiges (still unlikely - but better) to make the 8. Laid the cats, saints and coasters to make the 8 at the start of the year. Done my dough on the coasters but looking at a possible great collect on the other 2 on their current form. Might bet back if the odds get out enough. Cats have a tough little run coming up so will likely drift further.

Redders, time to get off the bombers, they are going to send you broke.

Also won plenty on the golf after dropping a truck load when I laid Appleby the week before.
 
heres tonights preview guys.

Tonights match at the G is a very important game to get both these 2 teams seasons back on track.

Melbourne have started theres with 2 very close wins in the last 2 weeks vs Sydney and then the Kangaroos by less then a goal and should face a very tough encounter tonight.

Geelong have now lost 3 in a row after one stage being premiership favourites after dishing out two flogging in the first 2 rounds. Went down to Sydney last week and now won of only 1 of their last 12 games interstate and lost by a point to the doggies the week before in a great display though.

The last 2 times Geelong has played at the MCG has been against Melbourne winning by 55 points in the elimination final last year and going down by 48 to them earlier last season.

With injuries both teams going in opposite directions here with Geelong having some massive ins with Ruckman King there Full Forward Kingsley aswell as Peter Riccardi. The Dees still have out David Neitz and Russel Robertson is still under an injury cloud although lined up to play.

Think Geelong with this weeks inclusions aswell as Matty Scarlett here will be enough to get them back on track. Also if it is a wet game its only going to help the cause even more with Geelong having a great record in the wet and Melbourne really struggle 4-13 of recent times.


1 unit Geelong -10.5 @ $1.91


Geelong have also been fast starters this year with a 4-1 record in first quarters while the demons are only 1-1-3. Geelong even in their last 2 losses have won their first quarters while the Demons have been the opposite in their 2 wins trailing at quarter time. So I think there is defiantely some value to be had here.


1 unit Geelong Quarter Time @ $1.75



High Goalscorer Value

For the ones looking for value here I suggest looking past the favourites here in Kinglsey and Robertson. Kinglsey coming back from injury and doesnt have a great record vs Melbourne and Robertson carrying an injury at the moment. There is plenty of players in both sides that are capable of kicking 4 of 5 goals. Cameron Bruce is having a great season and bobs up with a few goals he is available at 17.00 also Aaron Davey @ $13.00 is coming off some great form kicking 3 goals last week and has kicked a bag of 5 vs the cats in the past. For geelong Chappy at 13.00 is always in the goals but I suggest looking on to young Gary Ablett @ $10.00 he has already kicked a couple of 4s this year and is playing some great footy right now.

Most Disposals Value
Note players here include(Corey, Ling, Bartell, Enright, Bruce, Green, Johstone, Brown)

There is 2 players here that I see as value here, the first player I like is Cameron Bruce paying $5.50. He is having a great start to the year just like he did last season and is averaging 25 possies a match and being consistent throughout the lot. Very good chance of taking this though I think Joel Corey is some great value also, he had a bit of a letdown week last week in Sydney but before this was averaging 27 possies a game and think his a good bet tonight. Suggestion take Corey with a small Saver on Cameron Bruce.

Value Bet here Joel Corey $4.25
 
Western *smile* @ 2.00 is my value for the round.
They won't lose too many at the dome I reckon.
The distractions at St Kilda will also help too.
 
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