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AFL Betting Thread
- Thread starter palmyscum
- Start date
My preveiew on tonights game.
Preview
Tonights match at the MCG sees Hawthorn taking on Melbourne 2 teams going opposite ways the last few weeks. Hawthorn have been having some real trouble down back keeping opponents big forwards quiet with Brown, Rocca and Thompson all having feild days of recent times and has resulted in a couple of game losing streak. Melbourne however have turned around the early season form to win 4 in a row now including a massive win over Fremantle last week, good signs that they are getting multiple goal kickers right across the board.
The last time these 2 sides met hawthorn were at similar odds and it was the Hawks by 39 points. Willo had a day out kicking 8 while big guns Everitt, Hodge, Crawford, Mitchell and Batemen were all very dominant.
Both teams play the G relativley well with Hawks winning 3 of there last 4 there and the Demons 5 of their last 6 including playing the last 3 weeks there.
There shouldnt be to much in this one though Demons have a few to many forwards that hawks poor backline will have to take care of, they are the in form team and seem to step up when playing under lights.
1 unit Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.35
High Goalscorer Value
Hawks backline have had trouble keeping down opponents big talls of recent weeks so you would look at who could capatilise on this week. Only player you really look to there is Neitz who is getting on a bit and not playing very good footy at all at the moment averaging less the 2 goals a game this year. Melbournes forward line have been sharing the ball around alot and there hasnt been any real major contributors this year and this game could well be the same.
With Trent Croad out of this match who is such a key to the hawks forward line they really only have one option in this match to help them win it and that is to get it Willo. Kicked 8 against the Dees last time and this year is sitting 2nd on the goalkicking and each week consistently gets his 3 or 4 and an average of 4.5 games at home this year.
Value: Mark Williams @ $3.50
Most Disposals Value
Most Disposals this week is between the following players ( hodge 3.50, mitchell 4.00, mclean 5.50, johnstone 6.50, bruce 7.50, green 9.00, bateman 11.00, vandenburg 11.00 )
First looking at this I had already brang it down to 3 main contenders in hodge, mitchell and some big value on Cameron Bruce. Johnstone, Mclean and Green all get some good numbers for the Demons but never normally enough for high disposals which is pretty much the case for vanders and batemen aswell.
Bruce is having an outstanding year averaging 25 possies a game and has been the big standout so far for Melbourne. Mitchell is averaging his 27 and Hodge is averaging 24 but steps it up some more locally averaging 27.
So theres nothing Seperating this 3 there so you would assume bruce is the value but looking into matches of the past between these 2 teams Bruce has never really had many high posession games rarely reaching the 20 possie mark.
Last time Hodge played the Dees ha got a massive 35 possies but had never did much before this, also he does have a good average but his last 3 games Sam Mitchell has had more then him on all 3 games.
Mitchell I do think is the best bet as value here being the more consistent out of the 3. Racks them up week in and week out and has proved to get alot of possesions against the Demons in the past.
Could go to either 3 quite easily but Sammys my tip.
Value: Sam Mitchell: $4.00
Preview
Tonights match at the MCG sees Hawthorn taking on Melbourne 2 teams going opposite ways the last few weeks. Hawthorn have been having some real trouble down back keeping opponents big forwards quiet with Brown, Rocca and Thompson all having feild days of recent times and has resulted in a couple of game losing streak. Melbourne however have turned around the early season form to win 4 in a row now including a massive win over Fremantle last week, good signs that they are getting multiple goal kickers right across the board.
The last time these 2 sides met hawthorn were at similar odds and it was the Hawks by 39 points. Willo had a day out kicking 8 while big guns Everitt, Hodge, Crawford, Mitchell and Batemen were all very dominant.
Both teams play the G relativley well with Hawks winning 3 of there last 4 there and the Demons 5 of their last 6 including playing the last 3 weeks there.
There shouldnt be to much in this one though Demons have a few to many forwards that hawks poor backline will have to take care of, they are the in form team and seem to step up when playing under lights.
1 unit Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.35
High Goalscorer Value
Hawks backline have had trouble keeping down opponents big talls of recent weeks so you would look at who could capatilise on this week. Only player you really look to there is Neitz who is getting on a bit and not playing very good footy at all at the moment averaging less the 2 goals a game this year. Melbournes forward line have been sharing the ball around alot and there hasnt been any real major contributors this year and this game could well be the same.
With Trent Croad out of this match who is such a key to the hawks forward line they really only have one option in this match to help them win it and that is to get it Willo. Kicked 8 against the Dees last time and this year is sitting 2nd on the goalkicking and each week consistently gets his 3 or 4 and an average of 4.5 games at home this year.
Value: Mark Williams @ $3.50
Most Disposals Value
Most Disposals this week is between the following players ( hodge 3.50, mitchell 4.00, mclean 5.50, johnstone 6.50, bruce 7.50, green 9.00, bateman 11.00, vandenburg 11.00 )
First looking at this I had already brang it down to 3 main contenders in hodge, mitchell and some big value on Cameron Bruce. Johnstone, Mclean and Green all get some good numbers for the Demons but never normally enough for high disposals which is pretty much the case for vanders and batemen aswell.
Bruce is having an outstanding year averaging 25 possies a game and has been the big standout so far for Melbourne. Mitchell is averaging his 27 and Hodge is averaging 24 but steps it up some more locally averaging 27.
So theres nothing Seperating this 3 there so you would assume bruce is the value but looking into matches of the past between these 2 teams Bruce has never really had many high posession games rarely reaching the 20 possie mark.
Last time Hodge played the Dees ha got a massive 35 possies but had never did much before this, also he does have a good average but his last 3 games Sam Mitchell has had more then him on all 3 games.
Mitchell I do think is the best bet as value here being the more consistent out of the 3. Racks them up week in and week out and has proved to get alot of possesions against the Demons in the past.
Could go to either 3 quite easily but Sammys my tip.
Value: Sam Mitchell: $4.00
noticed a couple of you guys Join my betting comp aswell 
anyone else thats interested tonight it starts for the first round of it
anyone else thats interested tonight it starts for the first round of it
Having another look,I reckon Geelong at the line isn't bad either.
Although the vomitscum have improved,they are backing up from Perth.
If Geelong play anywhere near there capability they're a better football side.
12 points in for Geelong ATM.
Although the vomitscum have improved,they are backing up from Perth.
If Geelong play anywhere near there capability they're a better football side.
12 points in for Geelong ATM.
When are you guys gonna get your Collingwood bias out of your system. They are a good team. Could not believe the odds on the Pies tonight - $2.10. Note also you must realise that the Cats are overrated chumps. Great day today, backed the tigers at the line, the pies straight out and Above Deck won in Brisbane.
As per usual will give it all back tomorrow.
As per usual will give it all back tomorrow.
Had a ripping weekend so far.
Took the Tiges @ $6 with the free $20 from sportsbet on joining. Had $10 on Josh Mahoney for the first goal paying $15 and then took Milne @ $13 for $10 bucks again.
Outlayed nuthin to start with and ended up with over two-fiddee in the account.
Some weekends are just bloody good fun. ;D
Took the Tiges @ $6 with the free $20 from sportsbet on joining. Had $10 on Josh Mahoney for the first goal paying $15 and then took Milne @ $13 for $10 bucks again.
Outlayed nuthin to start with and ended up with over two-fiddee in the account.
Some weekends are just bloody good fun. ;D
Heres my preview for tonights match.
Preview
Tonights match features by far the 2 most exciting teams in the competition right now. They both play attacking running footy and are the highest scoring teams in the competition. Collingwood take the balls out the wings and feed it in to their big gun forwards while the Doggies go a bit more agressive riskier style taking it straight up the guts.
Both teams are very dangerous once up forward with a very big conversion rate once inside 50 and the dogs have giansiracusa leading the league with most goals assists on 22 and pies have tarrant and didak equal second with 19.
Collingwood currently placed nicely with 6 wins and just the 2 losses against the two top sides in Adelaide and West Coast though most of their losses have came against bottom sides they have been very impressive. They keep getting better and better and won by 102 points last week as slight underdogs vs Geelong. They have been playing very attacking footy ever since Round 2 averagin a massive 126 points a game,
The Western Bulldogs are coming of a 26 point loss to Sydney last week and have lost 3 of their last 4 games all against quality opposition Adelaide, Sydney and St Kilda. They do play a very FREE flowing brand of footy but the points do seem to dry up a little against the top 8 sides especially when not playing at the Telstra Dome.
Last time these 2 teams met The bulldogs were 1.09 favourites how things have changed since then. Collingwood come into this one as 1.35 favourites to the Bulldogs 3.40 which doesnt reflect on how well the bulldogs can play and dont deserve to be this bigger underdogs.
This year at the MCG Pies have been dominating with their 102 point win over Geelong last weeked aswell as a win over Carlton by 72 and Essendon by 17.
The Dogs havent played at the MCG this year but in the past they have been able to keep their games reasonably competitive their.
This really should be an exciting game to watch and although I think that Dogs are the value at the H2H odds I think its going to be a close game and will go with the more inform team of late the pies by the 1-39 margin
1 unit Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.40
As usual on a friday night I also assess the high goalscorer and most possesions where I have found it very hard in finding value in tonights match between 2 very free flowing teams.
High Goalscorer Value
Both these teams share the goals around so much that it is hard to pick a winner in these markets.
For colligwood, definately couldnt say Tarrant, he will get his 4 or 5 every now and then but produces so many 0s aswell. Seems to dish alot of due to his inaccurate kicking.
Didak will often chip in with 3 or 4 and a fe the dogs in Johnson, Murphy and Robbins are always capable of their 3 or 4.
Though I think i will stick with someone a bit more consistent in Rocca. He has kicked 3 or more 5 times in 8 matches this year including an 8, 5 and 4.
Value: Anthony Rocca $4.50
Most Disposals Value
Most Disposals this week is between the following players ( west 2.75, buckley 5.50, obree 5.50, licuria 7.00, holland 8.00, cross 8.00, giansiracusa 8.00, gilbee 8.00 )
To win most disposals tonight you will need atleast 30 possies with so much ree flowing flooty there should be plenty high possession winners. Holland, Cross and Gilbee are always consistent to get near the 20s but dont think they can get enough for tonight.
Both Giansiracusa and O Bree are having fantastic seasons for their clubs both really lifting it a notch and could well be up their at the end of the game but in the past havent really played well against this opposition.
Licuria is having a quiet season by his standards consistently getting his low 20s but at one stage in his career you couldnt back against him in most possesion contests. Last 2 times vs the bulldogs he has racked up 35 and 28 possesions so it will be interesting to see if he lifts again tonight.
Of course you can never go against Scotty West either, mr consistent so it would seem week in week out getting 30 odd. He is averaging 26 possies a game this year but surprisingly only 21 in losses. Last time vs the Pies he did record a massive 36 possesions though and definately deserves to be the hot favourite every time he lines up on that field.
There is noone in this lot that is massive value this week but im gonna give the value to Buckley at $5.50. He might not be in his best form of his life but still playing good footy. He is averaging 23 possies a game this year and coming off a 29 possesion game last week. He has a very good record against the dogs and many times has got between 30-40 possesions in a game against them.
Value: Nathan Buckley $5.50
Preview
Tonights match features by far the 2 most exciting teams in the competition right now. They both play attacking running footy and are the highest scoring teams in the competition. Collingwood take the balls out the wings and feed it in to their big gun forwards while the Doggies go a bit more agressive riskier style taking it straight up the guts.
Both teams are very dangerous once up forward with a very big conversion rate once inside 50 and the dogs have giansiracusa leading the league with most goals assists on 22 and pies have tarrant and didak equal second with 19.
Collingwood currently placed nicely with 6 wins and just the 2 losses against the two top sides in Adelaide and West Coast though most of their losses have came against bottom sides they have been very impressive. They keep getting better and better and won by 102 points last week as slight underdogs vs Geelong. They have been playing very attacking footy ever since Round 2 averagin a massive 126 points a game,
The Western Bulldogs are coming of a 26 point loss to Sydney last week and have lost 3 of their last 4 games all against quality opposition Adelaide, Sydney and St Kilda. They do play a very FREE flowing brand of footy but the points do seem to dry up a little against the top 8 sides especially when not playing at the Telstra Dome.
Last time these 2 teams met The bulldogs were 1.09 favourites how things have changed since then. Collingwood come into this one as 1.35 favourites to the Bulldogs 3.40 which doesnt reflect on how well the bulldogs can play and dont deserve to be this bigger underdogs.
This year at the MCG Pies have been dominating with their 102 point win over Geelong last weeked aswell as a win over Carlton by 72 and Essendon by 17.
The Dogs havent played at the MCG this year but in the past they have been able to keep their games reasonably competitive their.
This really should be an exciting game to watch and although I think that Dogs are the value at the H2H odds I think its going to be a close game and will go with the more inform team of late the pies by the 1-39 margin
1 unit Collingwood 1-39 @ $2.40
As usual on a friday night I also assess the high goalscorer and most possesions where I have found it very hard in finding value in tonights match between 2 very free flowing teams.
High Goalscorer Value
Both these teams share the goals around so much that it is hard to pick a winner in these markets.
For colligwood, definately couldnt say Tarrant, he will get his 4 or 5 every now and then but produces so many 0s aswell. Seems to dish alot of due to his inaccurate kicking.
Didak will often chip in with 3 or 4 and a fe the dogs in Johnson, Murphy and Robbins are always capable of their 3 or 4.
Though I think i will stick with someone a bit more consistent in Rocca. He has kicked 3 or more 5 times in 8 matches this year including an 8, 5 and 4.
Value: Anthony Rocca $4.50
Most Disposals Value
Most Disposals this week is between the following players ( west 2.75, buckley 5.50, obree 5.50, licuria 7.00, holland 8.00, cross 8.00, giansiracusa 8.00, gilbee 8.00 )
To win most disposals tonight you will need atleast 30 possies with so much ree flowing flooty there should be plenty high possession winners. Holland, Cross and Gilbee are always consistent to get near the 20s but dont think they can get enough for tonight.
Both Giansiracusa and O Bree are having fantastic seasons for their clubs both really lifting it a notch and could well be up their at the end of the game but in the past havent really played well against this opposition.
Licuria is having a quiet season by his standards consistently getting his low 20s but at one stage in his career you couldnt back against him in most possesion contests. Last 2 times vs the bulldogs he has racked up 35 and 28 possesions so it will be interesting to see if he lifts again tonight.
Of course you can never go against Scotty West either, mr consistent so it would seem week in week out getting 30 odd. He is averaging 26 possies a game this year but surprisingly only 21 in losses. Last time vs the Pies he did record a massive 36 possesions though and definately deserves to be the hot favourite every time he lines up on that field.
There is noone in this lot that is massive value this week but im gonna give the value to Buckley at $5.50. He might not be in his best form of his life but still playing good footy. He is averaging 23 possies a game this year and coming off a 29 possesion game last week. He has a very good record against the dogs and many times has got between 30-40 possesions in a game against them.
Value: Nathan Buckley $5.50
Redford said:
No not me. Had a nibble against the crows but stayed off this week. $1.90 23 points was tempting but unfortunately stayed off.
I assume you wasted money on the bummers again this week Red? (I admit I did, after Cornes and Burgoyne being out).
I had the tigers for over 15 1/2 points @ $5.00. Was listening at home and thinking I'd again miss a footy bet by a point or two and then Richo saved me on the siren. I think I remember jumping up and down at home in front of my son who was perplexed as to why I was so excited singing the tiger song at the top of my lungs. He'll understand soon. Thanks Richo.
