2024 Draft Thread

[pete and tys]

Nth will be bottom 4 without a doubt.
So will we.
And West Coast.
Saints also bottom 6.
Crows too.
5 certanties.
The last team to make up the bottom 6.....The Socceroos. They are rubbish.

 

[tigerlove]

I reckon the tall forwards in this draft are the most overrated group in it. There'll be one or two that are successful because weight of numbers says that.

Tauru is the only one I can really hook into to with any enthusiasm.

The rest...not so sure about them.

Tend to agree. I don't know about the talls statistics typically at U18 level but Armstrong for example, considered by most to be the best forward averaged 9.9 disposals in Coates League and 9 in championships. I haven't followed the talls to closely but dunno, just feel like a forward considered dominant should be doing a bit more in a top side.

 

[123cups]

I haven’t followed the draft much at all since we were good , however following it on here and via social media in the last couple of months I can’t remember the top rated kids all having so many detractors in the sence that we are focusing on their weaknesses and why they won’t make it , Smith is the best example of this and Smillie and Langford not far behind.

Heard on the radio today , talking about old VCRs and videos it made me think of how much the recruiting process had changed in the AFL and especially us as I said to the @thegeneral01 the other day , the way we do it now is nothing like the way it is was , anyway Greg Miller gave me the videos they used to recruit in 2005 , basically all they had was the state games and a couple of hand held grey blurry vids , I’m pretty sure I still have them lol

I remember downloading all of the blurry draft videos on Tiger TV, I think it was taken down a year after FJ went full-time. Anyone drafted before then was drafted under limited resources, and in fact, posters in this thread have access to more footage than club recruiters had in 2005! And our dynasty rebuild began in 2006.

Jack was in 2006 - year 1 - so the last of the first generation of footballers drafted by full-time recruiters only retired last year. Recruiting still has significant refinement to come in the years ahead.

 

[tigerdell]

I keep coming back to the north deal

2 and f1 for 6 and 11. North could get taru and Armstrong and complete their list.

We get lalor and fos and then a lottery ticket. I actually think north rise next year and that pick is between 5-8.

If we had have been able to hang onto one this picks we sent to the lions we could have included a late sweetener.

Its not a bad deal, and at worse their f1 (as you say 8) would be equivalent to 11 in this good draft.
But we either think we get someone at 6 (smith) just as good as FOS or we are playing a pressure game

 

[tigerdell]

If the player they want is there and they desperately want him .then yes

Yeah?
Nah.
Crows really really really want a player at 18 (which is actually 21/22)
And want to trade their F1 which is likely 1-3.

They would need to be desperate.
And dumb.
And unprofessional.
And closet Richmond supporters.

Yeah nah

 

[lidss]

Well, I think if you are hedging your bets on a player with minimal ground impact then peak Daniel Jackson is a pretty reasonable benchmark. People are assuming Smillie will suddenly churn out Green type productivity but I can't see that, not for awhile anyway. At the moment he projects as a low possession type, getting to 30+ disposals not impossible but it's unusual to see a massive spike in production from juniors to seniors, particularly with this class of player.

Smillie CTL numbers this year:

24, 22, 28, 34, 33, 14, 34, 26, 26 ,10, 29, 26.

Average of 25.5 a game, kicked 16 goals. What world is that low production ? That 10 touch game he had i reckon he was crook cause he stood in the goal square all day, so take that out and it goes to 27 a game. On top last year where he went at 26.3 a game. His ground level game is also fine and he's pretty clean below his knees.

I think a lot of people are making up knocks on his game that aren't the real ones that he actually does have.

 

[ToraToraTora]

Smillie CTL numbers this year:

24, 22, 28, 34, 33, 14, 34, 26, 26 ,10, 29, 26.

Average of 25.5 a game, kicked 16 goals. What world is that low production ? That 10 touch game he had i reckon he was crook cause he stood in the goal square all day, so take that out and it goes to 27 a game. On top last year where he went at 26.3 a game. His ground level game is also fine and he's pretty clean below his knees.

I think a lot of people are making up knocks on his game that aren't the real ones that he actually does have.

They do that with a lot of players.

 

[Redford]

Smillie CTL numbers this year:

24, 22, 28, 34, 33, 14, 34, 26, 26 ,10, 29, 26.

Average of 25.5 a game, kicked 16 goals. What world is that low production ? That 10 touch game he had i reckon he was crook cause he stood in the goal square all day, so take that out and it goes to 27 a game. On top last year where he went at 26.3 a game. His ground level game is also fine and he's pretty clean below his knees.

I think a lot of people are making up knocks on his game that aren't the real ones that he actually does have.

In that 10 touch game he'd been playing a lot of footy (Coates, VM and school) and travelling a lot (including school trips on planes and such), was sore, and got crook as well.

So you're right. They parked him up forward.

ER told him to have a break but he didn't want to, so the goal square-bench thing was a compromise.

 

[bullus_hit]

Smillie CTL numbers this year:

24, 22, 28, 34, 33, 14, 34, 26, 26 ,10, 29, 26.

Average of 25.5 a game, kicked 16 goals. What world is that low production ? That 10 touch game he had i reckon he was crook cause he stood in the goal square all day, so take that out and it goes to 27 a game. On top last year where he went at 26.3 a game. His ground level game is also fine and he's pretty clean below his knees.

I think a lot of people are making up knocks on his game that aren't the real ones that he actually does have.

If his playing height is 196cm then he would need to be a special player to have an elite ground game, success or failure will hinge on his contested game and clearance numbers. Guys like Cripps & Green are high production players, that's the level required for Smillie's role, this is the heavyweight division.

 

[Steely Danzig]

 

[tigerdell]

I probably shouldn't comment without seeing him play in person, but here it goes.

My instant reaction to this one video is that his natural game looks incompatible with the modern game. If the limited evidence available here is representative of his broader work, then he's a risky archetype of an already risky position that's recently become less clearly defined (tall forward). His near absence of new school traits means he should, in theory, be easily neutralised by 2v1s. He also looks oddly uncoordinated in one play (like a ruckman), drops a lot of marks (especially in congestion, which will only get harder at AFL level), struggles to ever capitalise on a long kick, mostly marks short kicks to his chest (which small players can do - his height is redunant and not used as an advantage), and in one play he takes forever to make a simple decision to handball to a free teammate standing right in front of him while they're both free... this guy presents as your classic, traditional tall forward who will probably be a disappointment in the modern game.

Still, I do give him points for not being a ruckman.

Oi! Nothing wrong with being a ruckman.
Best position on the ground.
I'm gonna come over there and wallop ya one

 

[123cups]

Agree with you that Dodson is a very good prospect ,he's clearly the best Ruck prospect of this year's crop.

You might be right, but still, the best ruckman is just the nicest guy in prison. (Nank and Ivan play like criminal beasts, they're the prototypes - and both great leaders)

We'd be flushing a first rounder down the drain by spending it on a ruckman. We can get them with nothing picks after they mature, and in doing so, we reserve more salary cap space for every other role on the team. That's the money play because it's the least influential position. Spend the least value on the least valuable position. Spend more to keep players like Dusty and Jack.

The lesson from history is us winning a flag with Grigg in the ruck against a 3 x AA squad quality ruckman on his best day (their BOG) dominating hitouts, and yet, we still won the clearances... it was a gun ruckman on his best day vs a random midfielder, and the team with the random midfilder won the clearances when the stakes were at their highest.

Adelaide's second ruck was a wasted spot on the team - they chose 200cm Josh Jenkins who had 7 touches and no goals, while we countered that role with Grigg's 17 touches, 1 goal, and him actually running and defending and knowing how to play football. Massive win due to philosophy. Our exploitation of the competition's overrating of ruckmen was a major advantage for us, and I think the evidence is overwhelming at this point, so I'd be devestated if we flushed a first rounder on any ruckman in 2024 - even if he is the nicest guy in prison.

(And btw, Jacobs was a rookie pick who Adelaide traded for after a few years of development, which is the money play)

 

[lidss]

If his playing height is 196cm then he would need to be a special player to have an elite ground game, success or failure will hinge on his contested game and clearance numbers. Guys like Cripps & Green are high production players, that's the level required for Smillie's role, this is the heavyweight division.

I would say his ground game is pretty elite for someone his size, but compared to smaller players like Neale and Jagga is only just ok. But its not a weakness imo.

Green and Cripps might be a bit more high production but what I think he has over those two is his kicking. Cripps is more of a handballer and Green is a dump kicker. Smillie is more penetrating by foot and can hit darts lace out. Yes he can mung a few but that's just the nature of playing inside where you don't always have the time to dispose properly.

Watch through this whole video and you can see he is class by foot. Great action and its pure drop punts when they come off. Yes its only highlights but I don't reckon you could put together similar tapes of some of the other big inside mids kicking like this.

 

[Tigers of Old]

Just 6 days + 45 minutes to go....

707 pages about things that may not even happen. Incredible.

 

[123cups]

Smillie CTL numbers this year:

24, 22, 28, 34, 33, 14, 34, 26, 26 ,10, 29, 26.

Average of 25.5 a game, kicked 16 goals. What world is that low production ? That 10 touch game he had i reckon he was crook cause he stood in the goal square all day, so take that out and it goes to 27 a game. On top last year where he went at 26.3 a game. His ground level game is also fine and he's pretty clean below his knees.

I think a lot of people are making up knocks on his game that aren't the real ones that he actually does have.

I don't know the stats, but I'd suspect Smillie's numbers would place him in a safer category than most comparable midfielders, wouldn't it? I'm assuming athletic busts tend to have lower production in U18's than this?

He sounds like a quality kid as well going by some clips of him talking in an interview. If the club picks him, then it tells me they rate his character off the field too, and Blair would know. Leadership should be a prerequisite for these early picks of a new rebuild, and that's hard for us to judge in match footage.

 

[bullus_hit]

I would say his ground game is pretty elite for someone his size, but compared to smaller players like Neale and Jagga is only just ok. But its not a weakness imo.

Green and Cripps might be a bit more high production but what I think he has over those two is his kicking. Cripps is more of a handballer and Green is a dump kicker. Smillie is more penetrating by foot and can hit darts lace out. Yes he can mung a few but that's just the nature of playing inside where you don't always have the time to dispose properly.

Watch through this whole video and you can see he is class by foot. Great action and its pure drop punts when they come off. Yes its only highlights but I don't reckon you could put together similar tapes of some of the other big inside mids kicking like this.

If he's a super reliable kick you could probably carve out a career as a Mundy type player, that's fewer possessions but a very high kick to handball ratio. Is his kicking in the Mundy class?

 

[momentai]

As we all know DA it’s super hard to tell how good a young tall can turn out to be , no doubt there’s a big fella in this draft that will end up a lot better then he’s rated now , some will grow , some will grow into there bodies and find coordination, some will simply gain confidence and learn to use their height and as always they’ll be ones who don’t fulfil there potential, for me as I said earlier I’m seeing potential in all the regular mentioned big blokes , just none of them say next Tom Lynch or Jack Reiwoldt to me , in saying that will be happy to have any one of those lads on the list and then hopefully they can live up to their potential.

Tauru is the best tall talent in my eyes , however is he going to be a genuine key position player ?

It maybe easier to see the potential in a young mid but when you see a kpp who moves like Tauru you know that the possibility of career ending injury apart, you have as close to best result as you can measure.
He has skills that demand attention and to my mind, in just the same way as early Jack.
Look at it this way. There are plenty of very good mids in this years draft but none actually at the same level right now of say early Reid or JHF.

Not so with what we can see in the viking.

 

[lidss]

If he's a super reliable kick you could probably carve out a career as a Mundy type player, that's fewer possessions but a very high kick to handball ratio. Is his kicking in the Mundy class?

I've seen some people say he looks a Mundy type which I can see a bit, but maybe its just the hair ! I wouldn't say super reliable but he's definitely a good kick. Especially when in a bit of space.

This is another video from last year when he pretty much played the whole game as a distributing half back. Shows the versatility and skill he has as a big mid cause you wouldn't even think about playing a Green or Cripps off half back like this.

 

[123cups]

I would say his ground game is pretty elite for someone his size, but compared to smaller players like Neale and Jagga is only just ok. But its not a weakness imo.

Green and Cripps might be a bit more high production but what I think he has over those two is his kicking. Cripps is more of a handballer and Green is a dump kicker. Smillie is more penetrating by foot and can hit darts lace out. Yes he can mung a few but that's just the nature of playing inside where you don't always have the time to dispose properly.

Watch through this whole video and you can see he is class by foot. Great action and its pure drop punts when they come off. Yes its only highlights but I don't reckon you could put together similar tapes of some of the other big inside mids kicking like this.

His disposal looks good to me. In particular, there's two qualities that I love to see:

- quickly disposes of the ball (short time with ball in hand)
- almost every single kick is inboard to a more dangerous position on the ground

I love it when midfielders are quick and daring with their possessions. Sometimes this playstyle leads to a higher clanger rate (as was the case with Dusty) because it's inherently more difficult to shoot for the most effective options in dangerous positions up the ground.

One of his weaknesses is supposed to be his lack of pace, but his fast time in possession is a great quality for offsetting a lack of pace. There's a lot to like.

 

[bullus_hit]

I've seen some people say he looks a Mundy type which I can see a bit, but maybe its just the hair ! I wouldn't say super reliable but he's definitely a good kick. Especially when in a bit of space.

This is another video from last year when he pretty much played the whole game as a distributing half back. Shows the versatility and skill he has as a big mid cause you wouldn't even think about playing a Green or Cripps off half back like this.

The kicking not quite in the Mundy class, I think it's good for a big man but maybe not good enough for a specialised kicking role. This is the challenging thing with Smillie, I'm struggling to define the weapon he can take to the heavyweights because each one of those tall midfielders has their own elite arsenal. Where exactly will Smillie excel? I think if you can answer that question with confidence then pick him at 10.