2024 Draft Thread

[Number8]

I would expect 6 and 11 and our f3 for north’s 2, f1 and f2.

Poor old North.

They are either going to take Tauru at #2 and basically sit out the rest of the draft or we're going to take them to the cleaners.

We are in the driver's seat to do a delicious deal here, if that's what we want.

North's only other obvious suitor is Carlton, but does #3 and #38 really excite the Kangas? As @Dyer'ere says, they save a bit of face. But it won't be what they want.

I expect the Tigers will let this one roll and roll and roll, probably all the way to draft day.

If North takes Tauru at #2 as expected, we hit gold at #6, then #10, then #11.

Poor old North.

 

[Jewell]

I used to throw yonnies at moggies

You don't throw yonnies. You piff them

 

[tigerlove]

I'm wondering if a third club could help out in getting them up to pick 7.

I can't see how. It would have to be with Saints pick 7 & 8. If North give us pick 2 for 10 & 11 (which I don't really like as there will be decent sliders) they'd have to give their pick 10 and something else and their next pick is at #62. Maybe next year's second rounder would do it but unlikely. If they're going to give up next year's F1 may as well just deal with the Tigers. Starts getting expensive for them. May as well take Tauru at #2 and keep their good 1st rounder next year. It's not like there aren't going to be quality players at the top in next year's draft.

 

[Spirit of Jack]

I love Francis Jackson - his drafting was the foundation for our premierships. However he is far from perfect - in fact he runs at 50% success rate for first round picks if you include JON (and count Conca and Vickery as misses as I do). Here they all are...

2005 8 JON
2006 13 Riewoldt
2007 2 Cotchin
2008 8 Vickery
2009 3 Martin
2010 6 Conca
2011 15 B.Ellis
2012 9 Vlastuin
2013 12 Lennon
2014 12 C.Ellis

So we have 8 picks - we need to take all of them to get 4 great players at FJ's 50% hit rate. If we trade up we will likely end up with 7 picks but the top two picks - so the odds are we will hit on those two - then we need to nail 40% of the rest to get 4 great players or 60% to end up with 5 guns. Interesting numbers game for Blair...

PS. FJ is also pretty average at picking talls...for Riewoldt and Rance - there was also Hughes, Post, Vickery, Griffiths and Elton.

 

[BillyJean17]

I love Francis Jackson - his drafting was the foundation for our premierships. However he is far from perfect - in fact he runs at 50% success rate for first round picks if you include JON (and count Conca and Vickery as misses as I do). Here they all are...

2005 8 JON
2006 13 Riewoldt
2007 2 Cotchin
2008 8 Vickery
2009 3 Martin
2010 6 Conca
2011 15 B.Ellis
2012 9 Vlastuin
2013 12 Lennon
2014 12 C.Ellis

So we have 8 picks - we need to take all of them to get 4 great players at FJ's 50% hit rate. If we trade up we will likely end up with 7 picks but the top two picks - so the odds are we will hit on those two - then we need to nail 40% of the rest to get 4 great players or 60% to end up with 5 guns. Interesting numbers game for Blair...

PS. FJ is also pretty average at picking talls...for Riewoldt and Rance - there was also Hughes, Post, Vickery, Griffiths and Elton.

100 game players aren’t exactly misses , was he around for Jon, I thought that was Greg millers time

 

[artball]

I said “yonnie” to my wife the other day and she looked at me funny.

in Sanskrit, 'Yoni' means something else ...

 

[Dyer'ere]

Poor old North.

They are either going to take Tauru at #2 and basically sit out the rest of the draft or we're going to take them to the cleaners.

We are in the driver's seat to do a delicious deal here, if that's what we want.

North's only other obvious suitor is Carlton, but does #3 and #38 really excite the Kangas? As @Dyer'ere says, they save a bit of face. But it won't be what they want.

I expect the Tigers will let this one roll and roll and roll, probably all the way to draft day.

If North takes Tauru at #2 as expected, we hit gold at #6, then #10, then #11.

Poor old North.

The longer Thursfield hangs the more likely it is that he caves into RFC.

Carlton must be at him. #2 for 3+38. RFC scuttled.

As you imply, #8, the pressure mounts on young Will. It's not out of the question that Carlton's nagging could drive a sobbing Noobsfield into Blair's loving arms. But they'd be mad not to nag. And he'd be mad not to sob.

It is dawning on me that everybody has found out (except me) who Taylor is taking and it's not Player X, the third player RFC wants.

 

[tigerdell]

But what good is 3 and 38 aside from a discreet handkerchief to wipe the little boy tears?
He picks Tauru at 3 and Boyd Fleurmeister at 38?
Stick to the hanky Willie.

Instead take 18.
A very solid dependable pick. Respectable.
I'd be sorry to see it depart.
But it gets Trainor. A head knock away from pick 2 himself. Or at least a JW.
Forget the fluff about pocket cloths. Hold your face proud.
Thats acceptable.


There is still the matter of 6 or 10. And a F1.
More talk is needed.
And plenty of silence from Blair

 

[Dyer'ere]

But what good is 3 and 38 aside from a discreet handkerchief to wipe the little boy tears?
He picks Tauru at 3 and Boyd Fleurmeister at 38?
Stick to the hanky Willie.

Instead take 18.
A very solid dependable pick. Respectable.
I'd be sorry to see it depart.
But it gets Trainor. A head knock away from pick 2 himself. Or at least a JW.
Forget the fluff about pocket cloths. Hold your face proud.
Thats acceptable.


There is still the matter of 6 or 10. And a F1.
More talk is needed.
And plenty of silence from Blair

3+38 he saves face, Dell. And instead of Tauru and nothing he gets Tauru and at #38 Jasper Alger. Or anybody he likes there.

 

[Smoking Aces]

I love Francis Jackson - his drafting was the foundation for our premierships. However he is far from perfect - in fact he runs at 50% success rate for first round picks if you include JON (and count Conca and Vickery as misses as I do). Here they all are...

2005 8 JON
2006 13 Riewoldt
2007 2 Cotchin
2008 8 Vickery
2009 3 Martin
2010 6 Conca
2011 15 B.Ellis
2012 9 Vlastuin
2013 12 Lennon
2014 12 C.Ellis

So we have 8 picks - we need to take all of them to get 4 great players at FJ's 50% hit rate. If we trade up we will likely end up with 7 picks but the top two picks - so the odds are we will hit on those two - then we need to nail 40% of the rest to get 4 great players or 60% to end up with 5 guns. Interesting numbers game for Blair...

PS. FJ is also pretty average at picking talls...for Riewoldt and Rance - there was also Hughes, Post, Vickery, Griffiths and Elton.

You missed Astbury and Grimes.

He also picked Edwards, whilst not first round he was a top 30 pick.

 

[tigerdell]

3+38 he saves face, Dell. And instead of Tauru and nothing he gets Tauru and at #38 Jasper Alger. Or anybody he likes there.

We're in the game to win Mr D, not save face.
Sure Algar might fill the jaw droppin' chasm of the door banging JS' toot but the obits will be written that Willie T gasped his last in the highwater mark of 24.

His survival rests with Mr Hartley, esq.

 

[tigertime2]

We are looking for a new list guy.
Welcome to Tigers Willie T.
You can start on December 1st.

 

[123cups]

If North are committed to Tauru at Pick 2, why would Carlton trade up from Pick 3?

North using Pick 2 on Tauru would slide the rest down a pick:

1. Lalor
2. Tauru
3. ????
4. Draper
5. ????
6. ????

We'd get the 3rd choice from Jagga, FOS, Smillie, Langford.

If we really wanted Jagga or FOS, then we'd say we love Smillie and Langford just as much. Less incentive to trade up if we rate them all.

Club has done well to keep their cards close to their chest

 

[Dyer'ere]

We're in the game to win Mr D, not save face.
Sure Algar might fill the jaw droppin' chasm of the door banging JS' toot but the obits will be written that Willie T gasped his last in the highwater mark of 24.

His survival rests with Mr Hartley, esq.

You may be right, Mr Dell.

Perhaps Mr Hartley has Mr Noobsfield at a disadvantage. As you suggest.

 

[bullus_hit]

100 game players aren’t exactly misses , was he around for Jon, I thought that was Greg millers time

Missing Daniel Rioli, that was arguably his best pick because it was in a compromised draft.

 

[bullus_hit]

You missed Astbury and Grimes.

He also picked Edwards, whilst not first round he was a top 30 pick.

He also picked four 100 gamers & premiership players in one rookie draft, that record will never be topped in my opinion.

 

[tigerdell]

If North are committed to Tauru at Pick 2, why would Carlton trade up from Pick 3?

North using Pick 2 on Tauru would slide the rest down a pick:

1. Lalor
2. Tauru
3. ????
4. Draper
5. ????
6. ????

We'd get the 3rd choice from Jagga, FOS, Smillie, Langford.

If we really wanted Jagga or FOS, then we'd say we love Smillie and Langford just as much. Less incentive to trade up if we rate them all.

Club has done well to keep their cards close to their chest

Carlton would trade to stop any other trade happening.
But its all quiet on that front.
Maybe they like Algar at 38. Very stylish pick.
And they rate FOS Smith and Draper as same same (dont we all)

Sounds lile youre right. Blues dont trade.
Willie running out of business partners

 

[mrposhman]

Missing Daniel Rioli, that was arguably his best pick because it was in a compromised draft.

I would add Brandon Ellis to that list too, very important in 2 premierships, and played more games than all but 3 players picked after him (Brad Hill, Luke Breust and Lachie Neale) and no-one picked before him has played as many games as he did, though there are 3 that are still playing and could go past him (Coniglio, Hoskin Elliott and Greene)

 

[bullus_hit]

I love Francis Jackson - his drafting was the foundation for our premierships. However he is far from perfect - in fact he runs at 50% success rate for first round picks if you include JON (and count Conca and Vickery as misses as I do). Here they all are...

2005 8 JON
2006 13 Riewoldt
2007 2 Cotchin
2008 8 Vickery
2009 3 Martin
2010 6 Conca
2011 15 B.Ellis
2012 9 Vlastuin
2013 12 Lennon
2014 12 C.Ellis

So we have 8 picks - we need to take all of them to get 4 great players at FJ's 50% hit rate. If we trade up we will likely end up with 7 picks but the top two picks - so the odds are we will hit on those two - then we need to nail 40% of the rest to get 4 great players or 60% to end up with 5 guns. Interesting numbers game for Blair...

PS. FJ is also pretty average at picking talls...for Riewoldt and Rance - there was also Hughes, Post, Vickery, Griffiths and Elton.

So in ten years he built a triple premiership team with minimal help from Clarke, if that's only average I have no idea who or what is considered good these days. Wells has a far worse record in the first round, that trend still evident with his recent call of Clark over Phillipou.

 

[bullus_hit]

I can't see how. It would have to be with Saints pick 7 & 8. If North give us pick 2 for 10 & 11 (which I don't really like as there will be decent sliders) they'd have to give their pick 10 and something else and their next pick is at #62. Maybe next year's second rounder would do it but unlikely. If they're going to give up next year's F1 may as well just deal with the Tigers. Starts getting expensive for them. May as well take Tauru at #2 and keep their good 1st rounder next year. It's not like there aren't going to be quality players at the top in next year's draft.

10 & 11 for pick 2, then try and get the Saints to swap pick 7 for pick 10, I don't think that would require a massive amount, not when clubs are desperate to get their hands on pick 23. I'd say it is a sellers market.