2024 Draft Thread

[btoz_01]

[QUOTEca="Dyer'ere, post: 3128176, member: 1462"]
Let's suppose, #8, that Thursfield is wedded to Tauru. (Thursfield is linked regularly and relentlessly in scuttlebutt.) It doesn't matter why he wants him - he just wants him. Let's work that scenario.

He can take Tauru at #2. All good.

Or he can trade with RFC to get #6. In which case as you rightly point out Taylor will take Tauru at #5. Disaster for Norfs.

There are few developments. FOS was linked to Carlton at #3 in some media. I gave it zero cred. I thought it was romantic *smile*. (Much as I do links of Thursfield to Trainor.) But there is scuttlebutt around. There is a bit of smoke here.

Suppose RFC is trading up with NMFC for FOS. (We can pretty much bank that scenario wise IMO. Twomey is calling it.) Then CFC is *smile* at #3 if RFC does the business.

Carlton would profit from a threat to Tauru by Taylor. If Taylor threatens the Tauru stock NMFC trades #2 for #3 and #38. Gets guaranteed Tauru AND #38 instead of Tauru and nothing. And RFC's FOS play is scuttled.

Inscrutable Taylor. Twomey doesn't seem to have anything and I can't get any sense or frequency with the limited scuttlebutt. Murphy Reid has been linked somewhere.

I'm getting pretty confident that Carlton wants FOS. And will get him at #3 if Thursfield can't get certainty around pick #5.

*If Carlton will get FOS anyway just by holding pick#3 why would they trade up?* They have to scuttle RFC's bid. A bid of #3+38 for #2 might be just the compromise to do it. And gives Thursfield a bit of a face save on what the market may portray as an early Tauru bid.

Can confirm reason for Carlton trade to #3 was for FOS.
Source Carlton board member

Why would Lolnorf move from 2 to 3 plus 38 from Cartoon when they can get their player at 2 ?
Pick 38 is a late second rounder theyre getting robbed in that deal
Dont Cartoon need 38 for the Campo twins
If lolnorf are after 2 first rounders it be trade with us for 6 11 for 2 F1

 

[Spirit of Jack]

I reckon Norf hold 2 and take Tauru - any trading down for them puts him at risk. That means a FOS / Lalor double for us is unlikely. :-(

 

[Mr Brightside]

Terrific mail, thank you, The Sash. And thanks for quoting your source. Anything on who they want now? I guess that's pretty sensitive.

Yep thanks Sash , Shirley the Blues would have a contingency plan knowing how much we are into FOS as well , makes me think it pretty clear that other clubs know our love for Lalor ( I’m pushing for Eric as his handle btw) .

No doubt there will be no BS on draft night if we rate those 2 well clear of the other kids .

Love to know how well clubs no other clubs ratings this year with the “ even” talent spread and the multi clubs with close double picks .

26 th October Mr B says let’s get Eric and the FOS , hold my beer

 

[Scoop]

Can confirm reason for Carlton trade to #3 was for FOS.
Source Carlton board member

Good source. Let's game theory this.

If Carlton want FOS, really want him they must be reasonably confident that he will be on the board.

North must be bolted on to a tall strategy.

And at 3, the Blues must think that there is a better-than-average chance that FOS is going to be there, thus Richmond and North pass.

Gives credence to the industry think that we want Lalor at 1 or Jagga at a push.

It's genius intel by Carlton or a sign that they are trying to avoid a Hopper/Taranto trade with Dan Houston. Understanding they are close enough to consider a trade but want to try and extend their window.

And North wanting to trade out of next year's draft that they consider any pick between 1-5 in 2025 inferior to a combo of 6 and 11 in this years draft.

If that's not the biggest red flag for next year's crop I don't know what is. But if I'm Richmond, I still take the 2 + F125 for 6+11. But I don't dare throw another pick in. All the pressure is on North.

 

[DuD_Delist]

If North trade pick 2 and Tauru goes early I will be laughing for a week. Trading a future first is also playing with fire, I'm not sure what Thursty is thinking but something doesn't add up. It almost feels like all the chips are being placed on next season in order to prevent players like LDU from walking.

You can take the man out of the Tigers but you can't take the Tiger out of the man.
Thanks Will.

 

[bullus_hit]

If that's not the biggest red flag for next year's crop I don't know what is. But if I'm Richmond, I still take the 2 + F125 for 6+11. But I don't dare throw another pick in. All the pressure is on North.

It's very rare for a top 5 to be on the nose, perhaps the key forward roulette skews the percentages but if you are picking midfielders there's usually something on offer. The worst drafts in recent memory were the 2003/2004 crop but I also recall 2005 being slated by all and sundry yet it turned out to be a bonanza right through the first round. The covid draft was lean but that's entirely understandable, next year will almost certainly contain a few bolters, it happens every year, so trading potential top 5 picks is a recipe for disaster.

 

[Snatch]

getting these two would be a good result
Captain and Vice Captain and mates

Hynes will be a ripper

 

[Scoop]

It's very rare for a top 5 to be on the nose, perhaps the key forward roulette skews the percentages but if you are picking midfielders there's usually something on offer. The worst drafts in recent memory were the 2003/2004 crop but I also recall 2005 being slated by all and sundry yet it turned out to be a bonanza right through the first round. The covid draft was lean but that's entirely understandable, next year will almost certainly contain a few bolters, it happens every year, so trading potential top 5 picks is a recipe for disaster.

I agree as long as we got another top 5 2025 pick out of the deal we should walk away with another very good midfielder at the North pick and along with our own, we have four top 5 picks over 2 years. It's a solid rebuild if we get the picks right. And you have cap space opening up to start picking off blokes in 27 &28 at free agency.

 

[The_General]

I think North will improve a lot. Their second half of 24 was much better.
They've got some experience in to mentor and help up forward.
They may not make finals, but i don't see them in the bottom 4.

Us, West Coast, Essendon and probably the Saints will be worse than Nth.

 

[tigertime2]

So its starting to take shape.

1. Lalor Rich.
2. Tauru NM
3. FOS Carl.
4. Draper Ade.
5. ?

That leaves jagga or Langford at 6.

Lots of variables. However i doubt we trade up to 2 under this scenario.

 

[Mantikorr]

If the proposed Nth trade happened, imagine if the top 10 looked like this on draft night:

1-Rich: Lalor
2-Bris: Ashcroft (F/S matched bid)
3-Rich: Langford
4-Carl: FOS
5-Adel: Draper
6-GC: Lombard (Academy matched bid)
7-Melb: Smillie/Armstrong
8-NthM: Tauru
9-Rich: Jagga (live trade 2025 R1(NthM))
10-StK: Smillie/Armstrong

Dreamin but hey

 

[Redford]

If we move up to 2, then welcome Viva Fos Vegas. Certainty.

 

[bullus_hit]

If the proposed Nth trade happened, imagine if the top 10 looked like this on draft night:

1-Rich: Lalor
2-Bris: Ashcroft (F/S matched bid)
3-Rich: Langford
4-Carl: FOS
5-Adel: Draper
6-GC: Lombard (Academy matched bid)
7-Melb: Smillie/Armstrong
8-NthM: Tauru
9-Rich: Jagga (live trade 2025 R1(NthM))
10-StK: Smillie/Armstrong

Dreamin but hey

Pick 3 players from the pool of Lalor, O'Sullivan, Langford & Smith and we've aced this draft.

 

[mrposhman]

Bully, just on the 1st round talls discussion. Compared to the talls in this years draft, how do you rate Archie Ludowyke who is presented as a possible top 5 next year.

 

[bullus_hit]

Bully, just on the 1st round talls discussion. Compared to the talls in this years draft, how do you rate Archie Ludowyke who is presented as a possible top 5 next year.

He stood up in the Futures match and kicked the sealer, that's a good sign, a little bit wayward to start with but he looks mobile enough to warrant a top 15 pick. The APS final was scrappy due to the weather so difficult to take anything away from that match. I think the tools are there, he's strong overhead and quick enough to create separation, but I'm reluctant to pass judgement until I see his progress next year. Thinking back to Lemmey who was in the frame for a top 5 pick any assessments might be premature in the case of Ludowyke. Hopefully he takes the next step and has a ripping state carnival in 2025.

 

[Smoking Aces]

If we move up to 2, then welcome Viva Fos Vegas. Certainty.

No certainly. Langford in the mix.

 

[Redford]

No certainly. Langford in the mix.

Langford before FOS in this draft is a big call.

 

[turk-d-tiger]

If North trade pick 2 and Tauru goes early I will be laughing for a week. Trading a future first is also playing with fire, I'm not sure what Thursty is thinking but something doesn't add up. It almost feels like all the chips are being placed on next season in order to prevent players like LDU from walking.

There is no chance tauru goes before pick #7 ( Richmonds pick)

Melbourne want mids and their perfectly placed to get either Smillie / Langford or maybe even Reid
They may look at a KPP with #9 but i doubt that with ANB , BRayshaw gone and question marks on both Trac & Oliver going foward
then noise around pickett and his annual go home desires. St Kilda would be a chance to take Tauru / Armstrong with 1 of their selections

 

[Mr Brightside]

No certainly. Langford in the mix.

The Carlton play for pick 3 has me thinking the same

 

[bullus_hit]

There is no chance tauru goes before pick #7 ( Richmonds pick)

Melbourne want mids and their perfectly placed to get either Smillie / Langford or maybe even Reid
They may look at a KPP with #9 but i doubt that with ANB , BRayshaw gone and question marks on both Trac & Oliver going foward
then noise around pickett and his annual go home desires. St Kilda would be a chance to take Tauru / Armstrong with 1 of their selections

Perhaps Melbourne see Tauru as a Naughton type prospect, that's also possible and I'm guessing either Smillie or Reid will be there at 9.