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The next Dusty, ‘Rubber Man’, and a match-winner with Iraqi heritage: The stars of a wide-open AFL draft
October 4, 2024 — 11.56am
Welcome to the most wide-open race to be the AFL’s No.1 draft pick since the Brisbane Lions made Cam Rayner the dux of the 2017 class seven years ago. Five players have a case to be the first name called out, although Richmond – who will make that decision – appear to be zeroing in on two, according to rival recruiters.
Here are our top 30 draft prospects for this year after discussions with recruiters or list bosses at 12 of the 18 clubs, as the best teenage footballers prepare to be tested and quizzed at the annual combine this weekend. These rankings are starting to factor in where clubs will pick (particularly in the top 10), which players are being linked to them, and how the draft is likely to change in the trade period, but is otherwise a talent order.
1. Sam Lalor
GWV Rebels/Vic Country
Midfielder/forward, 187cm, 30/8/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 23 disposals, 6.3 clearances, 6 inside 50s
The Age’s August top 30: No.5
The next Dustin Martin could be on his way to Tigerland. Most recruiters who spoke to this masthead believe Richmond are weighing up Lalor or Finn O’Sullivan at No.1. Many non-Richmond talent scouts also rank Lalor that highly despite a serious hamstring injury ending his season amid a severely interrupted campaign. They are confident he will get on top of his physical issues in a full-time AFL environment, and with improved fitness. Lalor’s combination of power, physicality, kicking skills, game-changing ability and penchant for impacting the game as a midfielder and forward make him a closer projection to Martin
than Christian Petracca.
2. Levi Ashcroft
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
Midfielder, 179cm, 18/12/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 30.8 disposals, 5.3 clearances, 1.3 goals
The Age’s August top 30: 2
Ashcroft will join his Norm Smith Medal-winning brother Will at Brisbane, and may even attract a bid at No.1. That owes to his strong body of work across the past two years, including being a back-to-back under-18 All-Australian. Richmond have interviewed Ashcroft since he announced he would be a father-son selection. He will need to bide his time to break into Brisbane’s on-ball rotation, but he is more than capable of being a contributor at half-forward initially. Ashcroft’s rare mix of high-level talent and ultra professionalism should enable him to make an instant impact in 2025. He won’t test at the combine because he is recovering from shoulder surgery.
3. Alix Tauru
Gippsland Power/Vic Country
Tall defender, 191cm, 16/11/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 14.5 disposals, 3.7 intercept marks, 7.3 intercept possessions
The Age’s August top 30: 19
What a rise for Tauru, from virtual unknown in the pre-season to potential top-three pick, if defender-needy North Melbourne take the leap, as some think they might. Recruiters are enamoured with the courage he shows flying for marks, his athleticism, aggression and instinctual play, and his upside. Tauru is most highly rated as an intercept defender, but also played up forward and as a defensive midfielder. There is risk involved in picking Tauru, with his most common draft range seen as 5-12, with several recruiters rating him as an ideal selection for clubs with multiple first-round picks. This would be the ultimate swing-for-the-fence selection.
4. Jagga Smith
Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro
Midfielder, 181cm, 28/1/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 33.8 disposals, 13.9 contested possessions, 7.9 clearances
The Age’s August top 30: 1
Smith made every post a winner this past season
and was our No.1 prospect two months ago. He remains the most bust-proof selection – some compare picking him to Sam Walsh in 2018 – and the team that drafts him will gain a gun midfielder for the next 15 years. He is a genius at winning the ball in contested situations and escaping from tight spots at stoppages, putting his agility to great use, then almost always finds a teammate. Smith had a 50-disposal game in the under-18 league, and won 31, with 18 contested possessions, in his VFL debut for Richmond. The general view is that he is, perhaps, not as talented or damaging as some in this range.
5. Harvey Langford
Dandenong Stingrays/Vic Country
Midfielder, 190cm, 15/3/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 25.9 disposals, 4.7 clearances, 1.3 goals
The Age’s August top 30: 11
Alongside Smith and Ashcroft, Langford was the most consistently excellent performer this year. He was seen more as a top-30 prospect before the championships, but has shot up draft boards by continually playing well. The co-Larke medallist is big by midfield standards, can play various positions, is a good mark, hits the scoreboard regularly, works hard off the ball, and physically handled the step-up to VFL in a cameo with the Tigers. Some recruiters would be prepared to take him at No.1. There are still queries on his speed and decision-making at times – particularly his kicking inside 50 – but there is no argument with his output.
6. Isaac Kako
Calder Cannons/Vic Metro
Forward, 175cm, 7/3/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 18.7 disposals, 1.7 goals, 7.7 score involvements
The Age’s August top 30: 12
Essendon may need to match a high opposition bid on their NGA prospect, with Melbourne strongly considering the dangerous small forward – or are they playing games with the Bombers? Either way, Kako, whose parents were born in Iraq, is considered a top-10 lock after a brilliant national under-18 championships. There should be no hesitation taking a sub-180cm goalsneak with Kako’s ability this high after Nick Watson’s impressive debut season. Kako is powerful, and has a knack for creating scoring opportunities and kicking audacious goals from seemingly hopeless situations. He can improve defensively, but can impact the game beyond the forward 50.
7. Finn O’Sullivan
Oakleigh Chargers/Vic Metro
Midfielder, 182cm, 30/5/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 17.3 disposals, 5.3 inside 50s, 1.3 goals
The Age’s August top 30: 3
In contention at No.1, but falling to No.7? This promises to be a wild draft, but it definitely feels uncomfortable ranking O’Sullivan here, after a potential Melbourne bid on Kako. He has long been on recruiters’ radars, winning best player honours at the 2022 under-16 championships and being an under-18 All-Australian last year. O’Sullivan has dealt with a series of setbacks this year that prevented him from playing at his best, but there are recruiters who rate him as the most talented player in the pool. O’Sullivan appears to have more time than most, is a strong runner, and adjusts quickly when his first option is shut down. His marking is a strength, and he is a goalkicker with few flaws.
8. Josh Smillie
Eastern Ranges/Vic Metro
Midfielder, 194cm, 17/5/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 25.5 disposals, 11.3 contested possessions, 4.8 clearances
The Age’s August top 30: 4
This selection will be in Richmond’s hands once they trade Dan Rioli to Gold Coast, and the Tigers are bullish on Smillie, who has been likened to Patrick Cripps, despite him not meeting expectations this year. There was No.1 hype about him early in the year, but a moderate championships display hurt his stock. Some recruiters believe Smillie’s best position is at half-back – querying his running ability and impact below his knees – whereas others view him as a big-bodied midfielder who can go forward. His performances this year may not match the Langfords and Smiths, but this is a pick for the future and what Smillie might become. He is tall, strong and has good skills, so there is potential here.
9. Leo Lombard
GC Suns Academy/Allies
Midfielder, 178cm, 5/10/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 24.7 disposals, 13 contested possessions, 5.7 clearances
The Age’s August top 30: 14
If
St Kilda president Andrew Bassat’s criticism of the draft system was any gauge, the Saints might be the club to place a bid on Lombard. That is certainly the tip in recruiting ranks. Lombard, who shared the Larke Medal at the championships with Langford after an outstanding carnival, buzzes around stoppages and his power and ball-winning talents are sure to be a great addition to the Suns’ midfield. He is often compared to fellow Gold Coast academy product Jake Rogers, the No.14 pick last year. The knock on Lombard – who played in the Suns’ 2023 VFL premiership as a 16-year-old – is that he could be tidier with his disposals, but he is a contested beast.
10. Sid Draper
South Adelaide/South Australia
Midfielder, 180cm, 5/7/2006
SANFL seniors stats (avg): 22.2 disposals, 4.7 clearances, 6.2 tackles
The Age’s August top 30: 6
There are Draper admirers higher than this, including West Coast, so the dual under-18 All-Australian may be snapped up long before this. A shin stress injury put him on the back foot from the start this year, but his renowned work ethic helped him make it back in time to compete at the championships. Draper boasts good midfield craft and ball-winning ability, as well as the power to burst out of stoppages. He finished the season well at SANFL senior level, which was another tick for his top-10 candidacy. However, Draper’s kicking skills and decision-making are considered a tad below some of the best midfielders in this crop.
11. Harry Armstrong
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
Tall forward, 195cm, 14/6/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 9.9 disposals, 4.5 marks, 2.7 goals
The Age’s August top 30: 8
The consensus best key forward in the 2024 group, Armstrong might even be the third player to head to Richmond, if this is the pick the Tigers snare from Fremantle for Shai Bolton. Essendon great Matthew Lloyd, who coached Armstrong at Haileybury, is one of many people who believe the left-footed goalkicker has a bit of Jeremy Cameron about him. His five-goal performance against Vic Country in the championships finale, including a towering grab between two opponents in the dying stages, helped seal his status as a potential top-10 selection. Armstrong is another who recruiters raised mid-year as a possible No.1 pick contender, and has the speed and endurance to roam further afield.
12. Tobie Travaglia
Bendigo Pioneers/Vic Country
Defender/midfielder, 187cm, 26/10/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 23.6 disposals, 11.6 contested possessions, 6.4 tackles
The Age’s August top 30: 13
There is a lot of love within recruiting ranks for Travaglia, whose competitiveness, versatility, reliability and running ability are set to make him a valuable addition, wherever he lands. In an even group, he could even be taken inside the top 10 – and some clubs rank him there. Travaglia projects initially as a defender, where he thrives in one-on-one contests, or wingman, but there is confidence he might be able to eventually develop into an inside midfielder. He earned All-Australian honours, made a VFL appearance for Carlton late in the year, and part of the excitement about him is how much he improved this past season. He has a connection to West Coast via Harley Reid and Tom Cole.
13. Xavier Lindsay
Gippsland Power/Vic Country
Midfielder, 183cm, 3/8/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 23.4 disposals, 5.4 clearances, 5.2 inside 50s
The Age’s August top 30: 10
Another one with plenty of admirers, Lindsay’s high football IQ, calm temperament, strong work ethic and excellent skills make him a certain first-round selection. He’s routinely discussed as being on the top-10 bubble, and recruiters often point to his 30-disposal game in Country’s narrow loss to Metro as his statement performance in what is considered the “game of the year”. He can play inside and outside midfield roles, or even be used at half-back, where his silky left boot can do damage, even if he makes the odd wrong choice. A knee injury prematurely ended Lindsay’s season, but he has enough runs on the board to be an early selection.
14. Luke Trainor
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
Tall defender, 194cm, 10/4/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 19.8 disposals, 2.4 intercept marks, 6 intercept possessions
The Age’s August top 30: 7
Trainor unfortunately missed Sandringham’s grand final triumph with a concussion and did not finish the season as strongly as he started it, but he is one of this year’s best key defensive prospects. He has also proven he can kick goals and make his presence felt when playing in attack, too, which only adds to his value. Recruiters would have liked to see Trainor spend more time playing on an opponent – and there is a query on his ability to play deep in defence – but his intercepting prowess will translate wonderfully to the AFL. Another of Trainor’s strengths is his willingness to take the game on with his kicking.
15. Joe Berry
Murray Bushrangers/Vic Country
Forward, 180cm, 18/4/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 14.4 disposals, 1.9 goals, 6.7 score involvements
The Age’s August top 30: 16
Berry is going to make one club very happy. This pick will likely be in West Coast’s hands as part of the Tom Barrass trade to Hawthorn. The Bushie enjoyed an excellent under-18 championships and was a regular goalkicker in the Talent League and for Vic Country. Berry’s speed, endurance and agility not only make him ideal for a high half-forward role in the AFL, but many recruiters believe he could also graduate to, or spend time on, a wing. He uses his running ability to good effect, often working back into defence to offer his support. Berry’s sharp left-footed kicking skills round out an impressive package.
16. Taj Hotton
Sandringham Dragons
Midfielder/forward, 182cm, 17/6/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 28.7 disposals, 7.3 marks, 1.7 goals
The Age’s August top 30: 15
One of the hard-luck stories of this year’s draft after an ACL rupture at training ended his season in May, Hotton’s form was so incredible in the early stages of the year that he was tracking to be a top-10 pick. There is less likelihood of that because of his knee injury and the heightened risk of a recurrence, but he is so promising that it would not be a shock if someone took the punt that early. The son of ex-Pie and Blue Trent, Hotton is athletically gifted, has a great leap, can play in the midfield or up forward, and his rate of improvement bodes well for the future. St Kilda drafted Hotton’s brother Olli two years ago.
17. Jobe Shanahan
Bendigo Pioneers/Allies
Tall forward, 194cm, 2/8/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 12.9 disposals, 8.5 contested possessions, 2.1 goals
The Age’s August top 30: 21
Shanahan sits behind only Armstrong among tall forwards in the thoughts of most recruiters. He kicked 11 goals in a highly impressive three-game stretch for Essendon’s VFL team before returning to the Pioneers and putting six more through the big sticks. Shanahan is a good kick – including set shots – marks the Sherrin well, and his athleticism enables him to create separation and work up and down the ground. He has also shown that he can play as a defender, too, although that is now seen more as a bonus than where his future lies. As with many young key forwards, there is a question mark on Shanahan’s competitiveness.
18. Murphy Reid
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
Midfielder/forward, 181cm, 30/7/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 25.1 disposals, 10.3 contested possessions, 4.1 clearances
The Age’s August top 30: 17
There is a chance that Reid’s football smarts, game awareness, skills and super-quick decision-making will convince a club to grab him earlier than this. However, most recruiters who spoke to this masthead rated him in this range of the draft because of his lack of height and leg speed. They believe he is more likely to make his AFL living mostly as a forward rather than a midfielder. Reid won a season-low eight disposals in the Talent League grand final, but was mostly stellar throughout the season, including winning Metro’s MVP award and earning All-Australian selection.
19. Bo Allan
Peel Thunder/Western Australia
Defender/midfielder, 191cm, 16/2/2006
WAFL seniors stats (avg): 11.5 disposals, 3.9 contested possessions, 3.3 tackles
The Age’s August top 30: 9
Allan was considered a likely top-10 pick but has slid down some clubs’ draft order while spending the second half of the season playing against senior competition. There are recruiters who still rank him inside the top 15, raving about his athleticism, power, speed and leadership. Allan has also proven he can perform a lockdown role. Of greatest consequence to his draft standing is what talent scouts project him to be at AFL level, which could dictate where he is drafted. Some believe WA’s top prospect can develop into a big-bodied midfielder, whereas others think he will remain mostly at half-back or as a third tall. There is also a query on his kicking.