You don't think maybe having a decent midfielder or 2 might be a priority over a 15 disposal forward flanker?
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2024 Draft Thread
- Thread starter Mr T.
- Start date
No body's giving them in 1 trade more than us,remembering that if lions accept 500 points more than their pick 17-18,then they risk us calling Ashcroft at pick 1.
The match was won by Payne's tackle on Duncan.
We should select a tall no frills backman at 1
We give them a massive points boost if we don’t bid at 1, I am not sure we will also give them extra points as well
Hilarious isnt it. Pick 12 for Noble he is no world-beater. I still think Richmond will get pick 6 & 20 for Rioli. Of course, we will push for 6 and 12 and why wouldn't we as he is contacted after all.
Hows this scenario, the Tigers get 6 and 12 for Rioli And GC gets Rioli and pick 29 OR if GC refuses then it's 6 and 20. It's time to play hardball.
GC can dish off pick 26 for Noble, an early 2nd rounder is fair.
They do need more than that, but they can't just snap their fingers and expect it to all come from 1 trade.
From my calcs, if Ashcroft goes at 2 and Marshall at 25, they will need something like 2573 points and they currently have either 1228 (if they win the GF) or 1281 (if they lose it). They need to generate around about 1300 points and hope we don't bid on Ashcroft with 1.
Thats significant value for them if we don't bid. Ie. if we were a risk to bid at 1, they would need 2959 points, so us giving them a pinky promise that we don't bid is worth a lot to them.
In that trade suggested above 39, 41, 47 and 57, they would gain about 330 points (assuming they lose the GF) PLUS "gain" 386 points that they wouldn't need to find if we were no longer a risk at Pick 1. No-one else can provide them value like that.
Would still leave them about 1000 points away, they might be able to get some of that with a Robertson trade (lets say he goes to the Eagles for a trade around 400 points - it would likely be a convoluted one), then they are around 600 points away. I still can't see them being able to get the 2 of them without trading picks from next year, whether thats a F2 or a F1 I'm not sure, possibly depends if they manage to generate extra value out of their picks, but if we got something like 6 and 26 from the Suns for Rioli, I'd be happy to trade 26 to the Lions for their F1 with our F3 going back to them.
They won't do it in 1 deal (so not sure why you are banging on about that they need to, they just need to generate value from trading their 1st pick and they will) but there is a clear path, but they would absolutely need to trade picks from next year and with the drop in the DVI for next year, I can't see them finding say 600 points without giving up their 1st for next year. It would be a brave club to think their F2 won't be in the mid to high 30's. 36 is worth only 317 next year compared to 502 this year.
Ain't me that's speculating on Brisvegas needing to do it in one deal Poshy. Other posters regularly banging on about us dumping four crap picks for Brisvegas's first as if that somehow instantly just solves Brisvegas's needs to get Ashcroft, coz it's all about good for us. I'm simply stating over and over again that there needs to be a hell of a lot more than that done, because it won't be anywhere near what Brisvegas needs.
Well we can give them the points they need this year but next years future first has to come our way to make the points balance
I don't think I've seen anyone say that a trade with us will fix their points balance, only that it makes sense for them to take a good offer from us (that nets them maybe 300 points) if it guarantees that we won't bid at 1. Thats fairly logical, as it more than doubles the value of the trade.
That they would still have a 1000 point balance to make up isn't relevant to that discussion. A value of circa 700 points on their 1st (worth around 1000) is very good value and something very few (if any) other clubs would be able to provide.
If the mooted trades go through nobody will have the points other than us so really we don’t need to sweeeten the deal too much as they have very few ways of getting Ashcroft without us
Agree and I think they will struggle to trade their F1 for many teams current years 1sts, so would need to trade it for a bunch of later picks which again not many teams will have.
Maybe we give 29, 39, 41, 47,57 and our F3rd (thats 2,009 points in this years draft) - along with a guarantee not to bid on Ashcroft with Pick 1, for Pick 17/18, and their F1. Brisbane then have that 2,009 plus around about 250 other points from their other 2 picks, and whatever they get for Robertson (around 400), so around 2650 points to bid on both of their boys. Should pretty much fix their points imbalance right there.
Leaves us before trades for Bakes, Bolton, Graham and Rioli, with 1, 17/18 and 21 and an extra F1 already.
So add 9/10 for Bolton, 6 and 26 for Rioli, 22 for Graham and a couple of pick upgrades for Bakes (including to Pick 3) and we are cooking on gas.
