I would say 15 and change will be the deal, potentially a later pick swap or they might chuck in a Ryan Maric for example
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2024 Draft Thread
- Thread starter Mr T.
- Start date
I think if they were to give us 3 as part of the deal, we'd need a pick around 7-10 to give them back.
Personally I don't see them trading Pick 3 to us for Bakes at all.
I've said on here a number of times where I think its likely to be. Their 2nd this year and next, with something going back if they "overpay" for Graham as a FA to get us Band 3 compo (a 2nd rounder).
I reckon you’re on the money. Pick 3 will not be on the table and we’ll be looking at the two second rounders
Correct - zero chance.
If Bakes leaves have said a few times reckon there will be some disappointed punters on here with what we get back.
Reckon a pick equivalent to about 15-18 is the absolute most we can wrangle.
Posh has made a good couple of posts that west coasts 2nd rd picks this year and next could work for us in our overall draft strategy.
I can see a scenario that works really well for both sides.
Bakes goes to West Coast for the 2, 2nd rounders, we give them back their own 3rd this year as part of the trade. By giving the 2nd and not pushing for a 1st, they help the overall trade out by offering Graham a bit of overs, either in terms of $'s or contract length, we get another 2nd straight after our own as compo.
West Coast give that 3rd rounder to Brisbane for Devon Roberton, who they aren't playing and certainly won't be playing once they add another Ashcroft and the other academy kid this year.
West Coast give up 2 2nds and get Baker, Graham and Roberton.
We give up Bakes and Graham and get 3 early 2nds.
We use 1 of those 2nds (next years) as part of a trade for 1 of GC's top 10 picks.
The only flaw with this is, that it handicaps us getting in our own free agent.
Those 2 North compo picks this year they traded really hurts us.
Pray the AFL secret herbs and spices are in our favour this year
With such an even draft the other option is that they try to do a deal with Freo for 2 of their 1st round picks for #3. They then trade one of these picks to us for Baker and keep the other one.
Ive never really got trading value for picks. always seems pretty random.
but how the hell does Lachy Shultz get pick 7 (Collingwood future first)
and Bakes get 18?
same age, same size.
one is a double premiership star, one is struggling to get a game
It's sound logic considering your point about Gold Coast wanting picks in next years draft.
With a new coach in be staggered if West Coast bring in two 27-year old flankers though - A new coach has one chance to go young and not be overly worried about results. They won't go old early - so be leaving Graham off the machinations.
In fact, wouldn't surprise with a new coach if they go cold a bit on Baker - If it hurts too much picks wise.
Yeah *smile* this Mr. Nice Guy *smile*. As good as the flags were 4 years later the list is a mess. We were giving away fringe players, in Butler’s case also a premiership player, like it was a fire sale. Time to get tough at the trade table and seek commensurate value if not overs.
If Baker wants to go then fine. But he’s a dual premiership player and is worth way more than Lachie *smile*. I suppose the spectre of the PSD is on the horizon for Bakes but still we need to get the best absolute best deal possible and the *smile* deal is the starting point.
Cos Collingwood were reigning premiers, got cocky and expected to finish top 4 Ezy.
The pies thought the pick would have drifted to around 20 or even later after free agents, academy and F/S picks.
Much like when we traded a future first for Hopper - we thought it would be late i.e. similar to above. We bombed and it cost us Nate Caddy plus pick 31.
Trading future picks is a ballsy game. It can cost you for many years like the examples above.
Or you can get players for 6 cents in the dollar like Melbourne have done a couple of times and pay big unders.
The second West Coast pick this year will end up being 25-28 range (18 picks, 4-5 father sons + academies, GC priory picks they traded x 2), that’s not fair value even with pick in the 20-25 range next year. We want picks in this draft. Split 3.
Harley Reid + second rounder for our first Baker and Graham
The Graham one is more to bring in a mature body as they rebuild their midfield of the future around Reid, Ginbey, Hewitt, Roberton and whoever they draft this year. Graham is the defensive backup and the endurance runner along with Tim Kelly. I can see them trading Yeo out.
