Welcome to Tigerland - Tim Taranto

[spook]

I've watched Wiliams every game this year. He's no good. Not a patch on the mighty Samson.

 

[bullus_hit]

Do you think Hawthorn's massive slide after 2016 was impacted by having very few decent draft picks in the decade leading up to that time? Or was it primarily because they traded in 2 midfielders, and didnt have any draft picks in 17 and 18?

We would be in the same position as the hawks if you removed most of DRioli, Bolton, Balta, Gibcus, Sonsie Clarke, Brown, Banks etc.
But we have them, so our situation is not comparable.

Hawthorn drafted poorly, that much is true, Hartung was a bust, Lovell was a bust, Garlett was a bust, Burton traded, O'Brien still searching for consistency. The jury still out on half the Richmond players in the development phase, I personally don't see like for like replacements when Dusty, Cotchin, Prestia, Lynch, Riewoldt, Pickett & Grimes retire.

 

[MD Jazz]

Simple question for a simple answer. Are you taking Williams or Samson on your list for the remainder of their career if your picking one?

Sampson clearly - 2 inches taller and more promise forward.

What about Sampson v Jackson LD?

 

[bullus_hit]

Simple question for a simple answer. Are you taking Williams or Samson on your list for the remainder of their career if your picking one?

I take Williams, more versatile, although I think Ryan is more chance to succeed as a key forward.

 

[Leysy Days]

Sampson clearly - 2 inches taller and more promise forward.

What about Sampson v Jackson LD?

Who?

 

[tigersnake]

Hawthorn drafted poorly, that much is true, Hartung was a bust, Lovell was a bust, Garlett was a bust, Burton traded, O'Brien still searching for consistency. The jury still out on half the Richmond players in the development phase, I personally don't see like for like replacements when Dusty, Cotchin, Prestia, Lynch, Riewoldt, Pickett & Grimes retire.

We have Shai, Bakes and Noah, and Sonzerelli looks promising. And they won't all retire at once, so we don't have to replace them all at once.

I do take your point though, its a tough ask. But unlike you I place more weight in the structural factors that make it extremely tough, ie. being banished to late draft picks. I think we've done OK given that, and you could even argue we've done as well as we could have within those constraints.

Its a numbers game. You can't beat the house. Good management can minimise losses and prolong the winning streak though.

 

[Brodders17]

Hawthorn drafted poorly, that much is true

The point isn't so much they drafted poorly, it is that they hardly stated at all. From memory they had about 2 1st Rd picks and maybe 4 2nd Rd picks over a 10yr period, they were in the *smile* before they traded for Mitchell and O'Meara, and and they knew it- that is why they went all in. If they got it right they may have stayed in contention for another couple of years.

We think we have the list to keep in contention for a long time, but that we were missing a couple of big mids- that is why we paid a big price for our 2. If we get it right we will stay in contention for at least another 5.

 

[Scoop]

Have you watched his past few games Scoop? Or are you basing that on Sumich's opinion or a few bloggers? He's a 22 year old tall who is lifting the workrate in all categories, no way Ryan notches 23 hit outs a match, 3 clearances, 10 disposals, 175 metres gained & operating at 80% DE. Both you and Leysy have poo pooed Williams at every turn, ever since he was 18. I laugh at the notion Ryan could clock up 23 touches in a game of AFL, it's just as absurd as the 23 fictitious injuries at West Coast & constantly referring to a mothballed 33 y/o old ruck who only ever makes cameo appearances. Williams is first ruck because he's the best option on the list, he may not be a superstar but very few 29 game talls are & that pretty much sums up the mentality on PRE, Richmond talls get every excuse under the sun but opposition players never afforded the luxury. And my point stands, Stef Martin is the type of player I would be hoping to emulate, Williams is mobile enough, even if you choose not to see it.

Ryan had 9 hitouts in a very average performance Friday nite as the backup in 43% of game time overall. Those numbers that you quote for Williams as a number one ruck produces aren't that mind boggling. Williams isn't any good, I've seen enough And any ruck that has aggressiveness questioned has the biggest red flag possible. Timid rucks don't make it. At best a poor mans Ben Griffiths. I wasn't a fan of his game style either.

Sampson clearly - 2 inches taller and more promise forward.

What about Sampson v Jackson LD?

Luke Jackson by the Flemington Straight times 50.

 

[Brodders17]

I personally don't see like for like replacements when Dusty, Cotchin, Prestia, Lynch, Riewoldt, Pickett & Grimes retire.

There is no one in the league who is like for like for Dusty, and probably not Grimes. There are maybe a couple of Cotchins and Riewoldts (tho I can't think of a KPF who is as smart as Jack) Lynch is the best KPF in the game, a couple are close, while Prestia and Pickett are great footballers.
We don't have a like for like for Lambert, and we never really replaced Alex Rance.
Our team that competes once these guys are gone won't have like for like replacements, but will adapt and will have a 22+ that is a strong team in their own way.

 

[tigersnake]

Luke Jackson by the Flemington Straight times 500.

That's a fair ol' gap.

 

[bullus_hit]

We have Shai, Bakes and Noah, and Sonzerelli looks promising. And they won't all retire at once, so we don't have to replace them all at once.

I do take your point though, its a tough ask. But unlike you I place more weight in the structural factors that make it extremely tough, ie. being banished to late draft picks. I think we've done OK given that, and you could even argue we've done as well as we could have within those constraints.

Its a numbers game. You can't beat the house. Good management can minimise losses and prolong the winning streak though.

The best method to replace the A list is to draft replacements, not buy two midfielders at top dollar, Grimes as unique as he is could have been covered by Sam Taylor, that ship has sailed unfortunately. Pickett could have been replaced by Johnson or Goater, Dusty will never be replaced but Hewett would have been a decent option to grab a goal kicking mid. Cowan for Vlastuin, Riewoldt gets replaced by Keeler and/or next year's first (assuming 4 years development time). If we don't take Johnson/Goater then plump for Scoop's lad, I would have been ok with Van Rooyen as well. Instead we've got a host of outside flankers, this has always spelt trouble and looks very much like Hawthorn's drafting prior to their collapse.

 

[Leysy Days]

I take Williams, more versatile, although I think Ryan is more chance to succeed as a key forward.

Interesting. FWIW Samson will go past Williams as a player very very quickly.

 

[Scoop]

That's a fair ol' gap.

I knocked a 0 off. I think Jackson is a different beast to Ryan. There isn't another athletic profile like Jackson. And he has performed in finals. Has gone to a new club, we are talking about giving Hopper & Taranto time to adjust to our system, the same applies to Jackson. And he is not fully formed as a footballer yet. Jackson is younger but Ryan is less exposed to the top-tier system. I would hope that Ryan can be at least Eric Hipwood type forward who can ruck. I don't think Ryan can be the athletic beast that Luke Jackson is. Different types.

 

[Brodders17]

The best method to replace the A list is to draft replacements, not buy two midfielders at top dollar, Grimes as unique as he is could have been covered by Sam Taylor, that ship has sailed unfortunately. Pickett could have been replaced by Johnson or Goater, Dusty will never be replaced but Hewett would have been a decent option to grab a goal kicking mid. Cowan for Vlastuin, Riewoldt gets replaced by Keeler and/or next year's first (assuming 4 years development time). If we don't take Johnson/Goater then plump for Scoop's lad, I would have been ok with Van Rooyen as well. Instead we've got a host of outside flankers, this has always spelt trouble and looks very much like Hawthorn's drafting prior to their collapse.

Just to clarify, untried rookies like Hewitt, Johnson, Keeler could be possible replacements for our aging starts, but untried rookies like Sonsie, Clarke, Brown and Banks can't?

And how is Taylor a Grimes replacement but Balta or Gibcus not?

 

[MD Jazz]

I knocked a 0 off. I think Jackson is a different beast to Ryan. There isn't another athletic profile like Jackson. And he has performed in finals. Has gone to a new club, we are talking about giving Hopper & Taranto time to adjust to our system, the same applies to Jackson. And he is not fully formed as a footballer yet. Jackson is younger but Ryan is less exposed to the top-tier system. I would hope that Ryan can be at least Eric Hipwood. I don't think Ryan can be the athletic beast that Luke Jackson is. Different types.

Ryan is nothing like Hipwood though? Zero. Hipwood has no physical presence and would break if played extended minutes in ruck. Sampson is going to be a physical competitor. And is 206cm.

 

[bullus_hit]

Interesting. FWIW Samson will go past Williams as a player very very quickly.

Fair enough, time will tell I guess.

Just to clarify, untried rookies like Hewitt, Johnson, Keeler could be possible replacements for our aging starts, but untried rookies like Sonsie, Clarke, Brown and Banks can't?

And how is Taylor a Grimes replacement but Balta or Gibcus not?

Taylor is an AA defender, plenty of runs on the board. I certainly hope those two make the grade, I think there's still a huge amount of upside but still a work in progress. Sonsie is a big tick but Brown & Banks were not the percentage picks in that region. I think Clarke, also being an outside type was fair enough but 3 outside players a bit of overkill.

 

[forward press]

The best method to replace the A list is to draft replacements, not buy two midfielders at top dollar, Grimes as unique as he is could have been covered by Sam Taylor, that ship has sailed unfortunately. Pickett could have been replaced by Johnson or Goater, Dusty will never be replaced but Hewett would have been a decent option to grab a goal kicking mid. Cowan for Vlastuin, Riewoldt gets replaced by Keeler and/or next year's first (assuming 4 years development time). If we don't take Johnson/Goater then plump for Scoop's lad, I would have been ok with Van Rooyen as well. Instead we've got a host of outside flankers, this has always spelt trouble and looks very much like Hawthorn's drafting prior to their collapse.

Why are heads exploding over missing on Sam Taylor? Was he a player that we were linked to? We have recruited tall backs since this draft.

How is Johnson a Pickett replacement? I thought they were completely different players stylistically? Goater looks more suited to half back. Still can’t see the comparison.

Does Cowan have the intercept and defensive nous that Vlas has? He’s a decent runner and great kick but I can’t see the comparison.

Keeler for Riewoldt? Has Keeler played as a forward in his junior days and have an elite forward trait? I thought he was more a ruck/ forward tweener?

The above reads like picks in the 20s and 30s are going to replace three champions of our team and one very good role player.

 

[Brodders17]

Instead we've got a host of outside flankers, this has always spelt trouble and looks very much like Hawthorn's drafting prior to their collapse.

The hawks used 1 rd pick on a flanker between 2009 and 2018- that was on Isaac Smith. There only other 1st rd picks in that time were on Burton (who they then traded for Wingard) and Lovell. That is 3 first rd picks in 10 years. (to go with their 7 2nd rd picks. In 10 years.
By the end of next year (assuming we dont have any 1st or 2nd rd picks next year) we will have had 6 1st rd picks and 11 2nd rd pick in 10 years.
Again there is no comparison, other than 1 year we both traded out 2 years of picks for mids. We are in a very different situation than they were.

 

[bullus_hit]

Why are heads exploding over missing on Sam Taylor? Was he a player that we were linked to? We have recruited tall backs since this draft.

How is Johnson a Pickett replacement? I thought they were completely different players stylistically? Goater looks more suited to half back. Still can’t see the comparison.

Does Cowan have the intercept and defensive nous that Vlas has? He’s a decent runner and great kick but I can’t see the comparison.

Keeler for Riewoldt? Has Keeler played as a forward in his junior days and have an elite forward trait? I thought he was more a ruck/ forward tweener?

The above reads like picks in the 20s and 30s are going to replace three champions of our team and one very good role player.

The fact we opted for a tweener ruck instead of a key defender a mistake in anyone's language, no amount of spin will gloss over that balls-up. Goater could play higher up the ground, Johnson could also be that player. Both these guys have good disposal efficiency, contrary to the doomsday predictions on PRE, Goater is travelling at nearly 80% DE, his NAB Cup numbers were 85%, this is another example of internet mythology trumping reality. I mentioned it awhile ago but the guy who cut the Goater Youtube video deliberately used footage to make him look like a butcher, most on here took the bait, as did most of the footy bloggers on the internet. Plenty of upside & some chance to rotate through the midfield.

Cowan looks like a general down back, Docherty the template and I daresay one would be quite content replacing Vlastuin with a player of Docherty's talent.

Replacing Riewoldt a very difficult task, that's why you need to play the numbers game, Keeler has tricks and looks a natural forward, intensity the big question mark but a solid bet with the steak knives component of the Hopper deal.

This year's draft could have also been used to either grab a key position talent or add to the midfield, at present we're talking about a pick in the 8-12 range, the next few weeks will shed some light on the final bill. I personally feel the 2023 draft will be a bumper crop, bad timing to be trading future picks.

 

[momentai]

The fact we opted for a tweener ruck instead of a key defender a mistake in anyone's language, no amount of spin will gloss over that balls-up. Goater could play higher up the ground, Johnson could also be that player. Both these guys have good disposal efficiency, contrary to the doomsday predictions on PRE, Goater is travelling at nearly 80% DE, his NAB Cup numbers were 85%, this is another example of internet mythology trumping reality. I mentioned it awhile ago but the guy who cut the Goater Youtube video deliberately used footage to make him look like a butcher, most on here took the bait, as did most of the footy bloggers on the internet. Plenty of upside & some chance to rotate through the midfield.

Cowan looks like a general down back, Docherty the template and I daresay one would be quite content replacing Vlastuin with a player of Docherty's talent.

Replacing Riewoldt a very difficult task, that's why you need to play the numbers game, Keeler has tricks and looks a natural forward, intensity the big question mark but a solid bet with the steak knives component of the Hopper deal.

This year's draft could have also been used to either grab a key position talent or add to the midfield, at present we're talking about a pick in the 8-12 range, the next few weeks will shed some light on the final bill. I personally feel the 2023 draft will be a bumper crop, bad timing to be trading future picks.

What are you saying here Bully, was it bad timing or a wrong decision?