Welcome Liam Baker

[mrposhman]

A lot of overratting of Bakes value on the open market on here IMO. He's probably worth a pick between 15-20, so talk of 2 2nds with nothing going back,

West Coast also are unlikely to trade the Barass pick.

The option TheCan suggested above is probably doable, but looks overs because he assigned a value of Pick 13 for Bakes which is a touch high.

Without looking at points though, a trade of Bakes, 10 and I'd probably suggest 39 or 41 rather than 29 for Pick 3 probably makes sense.

Good for us in that we get another pick in the top 3, good for them for the reasons TheCan suggests, get Bakes and probably Allan which would suit them, and also have Pick 41, would they get Gerryn for that pick, maybe. Just looking at good WA talent and what they could get, so potentially Pick 3 for Bakes, Allan and Gerryn. That probably works for both parties.

 

[Sintiger]

A lot of overratting of Bakes value on the open market on here IMO. He's probably worth a pick between 15-20, so talk of 2 2nds with nothing going back,

West Coast also are unlikely to trade the Barass pick.

The option TheCan suggested above is probably doable, but looks overs because he assigned a value of Pick 13 for Bakes which is a touch high.

Without looking at points though, a trade of Bakes, 10 and I'd probably suggest 39 or 41 rather than 29 for Pick 3 probably makes sense.

Good for us in that we get another pick in the top 3, good for them for the reasons TheCan suggests, get Bakes and probably Allan which would suit them, and also have Pick 41, would they get Gerryn for that pick, maybe. Just looking at good WA talent and what they could get, so potentially Pick 3 for Bakes, Allan and Gerryn. That probably works for both parties.

Mmm.

26 year old dual premiership player, club vice captain with leadership qualities, can play multiple positions, hard as a cat’s head.

Not sure he is being overrated Mr P.

 

[Ripplestick]

Mmm.

26 year old dual premiership player, club vice captain with leadership qualities, can play multiple positions, hard as a cat’s head.

Not sure he is being overrated Mr P.

Plus the talk is they've offered him a very very attractive financial deal. WC can't say we aren't going to give the tigers much because he's not worth that much, and then offer him a huge long term contract to make him one of their highest paid players.

 

[spook]

I don't think we're getting pick 3.

 

[Dyer'ere]

Baker has said he won't go unless RFC gets a fair trade. The mail has been very strong for some time - he's going to WCE.

We won't let him go for #20 something. It'll be the Barrass pick. Or we'll simply argue that WCE didn't honour their committment to him. That's the narrative when a club won't pony up for a trade. That the bidding club was insincere, did not follow through.

So. Baker for a pick in the teens has been widely touted by media (leaked by agents) for some time. It's been persistent so probs accurate.

Further trading for the WCE pick #3 is now getting a lot of oxygen. That'll be based on The Great Eye's assessment of the quality of this draft. This rumour has persisted recently. Likely accuracy high atm. WCE may back track on the Baker deal if they can get a better offer for #3 than we are offering. But this looks like argy bargy through the media to me. Agents and clubs leaking.

We can be confident that Baker will get a pick in the teens and certain that he will not get #3. It will take more than that.

 

[Tygrys]

I don't think we're getting pick 3.

If the draft is as good as has been reported, then personally I don't want pick #3.

We are going to need a lot of first rounders to deal with all the holes in our list and redress the last decade where via ladder position and trading them away we hardly got any. Anyhow unless there is a Daicos or Reid beckoning at #3 I'd steer well clear.

And if it's true that West Coast does have some interest in trading #3 out, then that strongly suggests there isn't, and that we shouldn't sell the farm to get it. Just saying we need more first rounders, not less of them.

 

[13Cups]

A lot of overratting of Bakes value on the open market on here IMO. He's probably worth a pick between 15-20, so talk of 2 2nds with nothing going back,

West Coast also are unlikely to trade the Barass pick.

The option TheCan suggested above is probably doable, but looks overs because he assigned a value of Pick 13 for Bakes which is a touch high.

Without looking at points though, a trade of Bakes, 10 and I'd probably suggest 39 or 41 rather than 29 for Pick 3 probably makes sense.

Good for us in that we get another pick in the top 3, good for them for the reasons TheCan suggests, get Bakes and probably Allan which would suit them, and also have Pick 41, would they get Gerryn for that pick, maybe. Just looking at good WA talent and what they could get, so potentially Pick 3 for Bakes, Allan and Gerryn. That probably works for both parties.

Around 15 is his worth, if we where buying and offered up a top 10 this place would melt down.

 

[tigerdell]

Steely makes Liam appear to be soft.

Do you rate Steely?
He wasnt showing anything in the first half of the season.
And all his afl games have been cameos - is it luck the ball bounced to him or clever positioning? I'm undecided

 

[TigerPort]

Everyone has us trading all our players for draft picks this year. I don't see it or understand why we wouldn't bank some good picks for next year as well. I still see us grabbing a higher draft pick for points from our lower selections (otherwise acquiring them last year was just a waste).

First step in this process is to get the trades finalised for players and see what picks we end up with.

Draft picks can be traded right through to the actual player draft and on the draft nights as well

So we get the picks then assess potential players available at each pick and see which picks we can use to move into 2025

Have to get the best deals we can for Bolton, Rioli and Baker first

 

[btoz_01]

Do you rate Steely?
He wasnt showing anything in the first half of the season.
And all his afl games have been cameos - is it luck the ball bounced to him or clever positioning? I'm undecided

Maybe Steely makes his own luck by fiercely attacking the contest, presenting and being able to put the ball through the big sticks

 

[Little Ziggyadee]

If bakes is uncontracted can’t freo / WCE just sign him up?

What are bakes options?

Bend us over and walk through to the preseason draft and we get peanuts.
But apparently he has told WC to make sure we are compensated.

 

[tigerdell]

If the draft is as good as has been reported, then personally I don't want pick #3.

We are going to need a lot of first rounders to deal with all the holes in our list and redress the last decade where via ladder position and trading them away we hardly got any. Anyhow unless there is a Daicos or Reid beckoning at #3 I'd steer well clear.

And if it's true that West Coast does have some interest in trading #3 out, then that strongly suggests there isn't, and that we shouldn't sell the farm to get it. Just saying we need more first rounders, not less of them.

A Daicos or Reid goes #1.
In every draft.
Just because there isnt one doesnt downrate the draft.

Pick 3 is a chance for a starting square onballer.
10-15 are less likely to make that role

 

[tigerdell]

I'm pondering how we rate Bakes as a trade value.
Can we do it quantitatively?
He's 26yo. 4-6 seasons left. Historically we know afl players peak in their late 20s and roughly hold their output from 26 until retirement.
So its 5 years at this level of output.

Bakes has played 128 games and 13 brownlow votes (poss a couple more this year)
2nd in the Jack Dyer.
We (and the WA clubs) can expect 100 games and 15 brownlow votes.
Plus VC and leadership.

On average picks 6-10 average 134 games and 19 votes.
Picks 11-20 avg 118 games and 16 votes.
Across their entire careers.


Rating Baker by the numbers he is easily 11-20.
A case can be made that WC are buying a known quantity with lower risk than an 18yo. Plus leadership.
Pick 10-15 is the right range.



Sources:

AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

Round 20 – the “survival function” of AFL draftees, and Port’s makeshift ruck

Today we’re going show a simple “survival function” analysis, inspired by a query from Soccermetrics on Twitter who ran a similar analysis of MLS draft pick career tenures. Surviv…

hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com

 

[TT33]

Bend us over and walk through to the preseason draft and we get peanuts.
But apparently he has told WC to make sure we are compensated.

Matt Clarke is their list Manager I seriously doubt he'd shaft his former club.

 

[theglove3]

Matt Clarke is their list Manager I seriously doubt he'd shaft his former club.

Yes, although previous allegiances can change based on the thickness and depth of your.....





Recipe book!

 

[LachlanGrant]

Baker is uncontracted, pick in teens is a good will deal for all parties. It's possible in this situation for a deal that benefits both teams and the player. There is no need to get greedy or combative here unlike the Rioli and Bolton trades were we should dig in and maximise what we receive.

 

[Tigerfan]

Bend us over and walk through to the preseason draft and we get peanuts.
But apparently he has told WC to make sure we are compensated.

Don’t we have first pick in PSD?

 

[CarnTheTiges]

Don’t we have first pick in PSD?

But would we use it to retain a player who wants out? Of more danger to WCE is that #lolnorf have pick 2 in the PSD, and they'd be loose enough to give it a try.

 

[turk-d-tiger]

Guys just look back a couple of years to the CCJ trade

Norf were last with PDS #1
for a spud

Baker is worth pick #15 and we will get around that value
Clarke & Blair will work out how to get that value and complete the deal

 

[HKTigerB]

Do you rate Steely?
He wasnt showing anything in the first half of the season.
And all his afl games have been cameos - is it luck the ball bounced to him or clever positioning? I'm undecided

Not sure where he'll end up or of his ability.

I do like Steely and love his hardness. In the VFL practise match against Carlton he took on Pittonet and one of their KPD's and won. He's tough.

However I watched him play his role and play the team role asked of him in a few games early on and Morro called it out that he ran the patterns for little or no reward. He's a very good kick. has speed and and will play to the team rules. If everyone does then he succeeds.

Will he make it ? Dunno. I hope so coz I like him but he and the team need to be on the same page. Gut feel is he got 1 year coz the club has doubts as well.

But there's now about 10 players with contracts expiring next year so if 5 to 6 roll off then he needs to be one of the 3 or 4 that steps up.