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Thoroughbred racing
- Thread starter DragicevicFan
- Start date
easy said:
Did you notice who owns it? Bert Veira, owner of Trapeze Artist (Everest), whose wife was t boned by a police chase vehicle several weeks ago and remains on life support. The story is in today's SMH.
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easy_tiger
Guest
Yours truly up for the Unco's on the auspicious Caufield Cup. Probably gonna have to back 2 winners to pinch the title from Bernie. Ive been bullish about King Will Dream in The Cup since he qualified with 53kg, and despite Yucatan's chilling herbet power dominance (McDonald nearly ripped his teeth out trying to slow him down, but it was the flimsiest G2 field I can recall seeing, really hope the 2.5kg penalty *smile* lloyd williams up), Im sticking with Kings. I will probably all up him with another good horse and try steal bernies thunder. standing by for a start.
easy ($0)
44 ($10)
JB($0)
Leysy($0)
Tigerman($0)
Tigersnake($(59)
Spook($0)
STC ($31)
Elmer ($0)
Bernie ($105)
PREunco's -$96
easy ($0)
44 ($10)
JB($0)
Leysy($0)
Tigerman($0)
Tigersnake($(59)
Spook($0)
STC ($31)
Elmer ($0)
Bernie ($105)
PREunco's -$96
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easy_tiger
Guest
scottyturnerscurse said:
pretty pleased about that.
the bookies panicked and installed Yucatan 4-1 fav for the CC and wound Kings will Dream out to 7's very briefly, in which time I invested.
Kings has been set for the CC, has had the perfect preparation, and is ridiculously well weighted IMO.
Plus Weir seems to have been at his cheating best this spring
On Yucatan, where is the protection for futures/doubles punters?
yesterday Williams says yucatan will go for the cups double, pre-post punters wade in,
today he's out.
*smile* lloyd williams.
easy said:
Agree with most of that Easy but did something similar and backed Youngstar at $6.75 yesterday. Drops to 51.5kg - meeting Kings Will Dream almost the same on weights as she did in the Turnbull. 4yo Mares have a very good record in this. Do concede the Weir factor may come to play and cannot catch him. Barrier draws will be important.
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easy_tiger
Guest
Tiger44 said:
yeah its a bit of a coin toss between those two.
Kings consistency at G1 WFA this campaign has been exceptional and I reckon Weir has had one thing in mind all through
agree barriers could split these two.
easy said:
I feel your pain easy.
It must be good to have a quid, the Caulfield Cup winner gets $3 million.
Below is what the Williams team said a few hours before he was scratched.
https://www.racing.com/news/2018-10-15/news-nick-williams-caulfield-cup-cant-be-ignored
News broke on Monday morning that the ultra-impressive Yucatan will take his place in the Caulfield Cup field and Williams explained the Aidan O'Brien-trained galloper has pulled up in excellent order.
"Aidan's team here at Werribee seem very happy with him this morning and he's had a thorough vet check so at this point it's certainly all systems go and Michael Walker will ride him [in the Caulfield Cup]," Williams said.
"We were very mindful of [the back-up] and the team here can't fault the horse on Monday morning.
"The way he ran in the Herbert Power was an absolutely extraordinary performance."
There is some good news though, i got $34 fixed on Amphitrite in the Thousand Guineas.
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easy_tiger
Guest
tigerman said:
thats outstanding punting Tman
Leysy Days said:
controversial leysy. Im trying to remember how you rate the importance of ruckmen?
similar nuance I reckon.
Obviously, a decisive rider on a responsive nag, will overcome a bad gate.
but there are a surprising number of indecisive riders and unresponsive nags around though.
Leysy Days said:
At most tracks, at most starting gates, yes. But wide out at the Flem seven furlong start is poison.
Great discussion, lads.
You’re not alone, Leysy. Old Jack taught me there is no such thing as a bad barrier, only bad jockeys. He also taught me that riders retire years before they stop riding. On the first axiom, I trust in the speed map more than the draw these days, although it’s a still a rule of merit. Unfortunately so many jockeys are using Dean Lester’s analysis so we see less positive riding from wider draws. An infuriating trend. I heard Benny Allen talking on racing.com on the weekend and he spoke about how much he relies on Lester for maps and form analysis. I had blamed his affiliation with Weir for his loss of form but the Lester revelation made perfect sense. Back to Jack’s axiom, if I’ve got Melham or Walker drawn awkwardly I will invest no matter how the speed map looks. Deferring to them is always wise if their horse is on the job. Both are money riders so support in betting will provide a pointer into their confidence levels and therefore their tactics. So I suppose I’m with Easy’s take a decisive rider with a responsive nag will overcome a bad gate. You’re right in suggesting track and starting position have an effect, Scotty. But QLD is the state where I find it most influential.
The second axiom (riders retire years before they stop riding.) is one I believe 100%. It is worth noting that before Hugh Bowman gave the nation a heart attack in the Turnbull, he was severely reprimanded by the stewards for not taking a gap the size of a Mack Truck on Ranier for the kid Cummings. In failing to take this gap, he got his mount beaten a lip. Public relations might’ve saved Bowman the indignity of a suspension for failing to give his horse every reasonable chance. But it was perhaps the most embarrassing ride an older star jock has put in this spring. Incidentally, the race Bowman was reprimanded in was won by Dwayne Dunn, who partnered the logical second elect, the recently gelded Wild Planet who had lead easily in his comeback at six furlongs when two stone lighter. Dunn missed the start on his heavily backed commodity, sat three wide, without cover, worse than midfield always improving his position. Not a good place to be ordinarily but at least Dunn gave the horse an uninterrupted run and knew the horse had the ability to be competitive despite the monumentally tough run in transit. By Dunn’s recent standards this is a good ride for him even though he won by virtue of another fading star prioritising his own safety in a game not for the faint hearted.
I’m sure this will come as a shock ;D but I will not back Dwayne Dunn anymore and I recently discovered one of my more learned punting mates independently landed on the same conclusion. Funnily enough for the same reason; too often he goes to the line under lock and key, up in the irons and alarmingly content to be going to the post with a lap full of horse that’s been untested. IMO a constantly updated jockey ladder is as important to returning a profit on horses as having an independently constructed football ladder is to guaranteeing a profit on the AFL. Dunn was never in the 8. But Bowman’s more like the fading Sydney Swans. Punters should have a ranking system for trainers too and that brings me to this...
Obviously we have to be careful here. But in his career to date Weir has proved incredibly hard to catch. Even when stewards have found tubing equipment at stables or on floats with his runners they haven’t found positive swabs to throw the book at him. Robert Smerdon was also a trainer who stewards found very elusive. So they made sure that when they went for him again it would be the last time and he is now banned from racing for life. Smerdon did not have Weir’s weight of numbers. It was a much smaller operation. He didn’t have as strong a presence around the country in carnivals or at the smallest provincial venues like Mildura, Donald and Murtoa. He did not have a large presence in G1 racing in Melbourne. In fact his attempts at G1 level were rare. But the betting moves were definitive and conspicuous. The accuracy was alarming for bookmakers and they sent out veiled criticisms that could only have been about Smerdon regarding a leading stable that was operating at a 90% strike rate when the money was on. Smerdon has been unequivocally proven to have cheated. And while Aquanita was a leading stable it wasn’t a a huge stable, so the contamination of the industry isn’t as wide spread as the hypothetical world in which the leading stable in the country is proven to have cheated for a prolonged period of time.
In contrast, Weir has weight of numbers in G1 racing and a strong presence all year round in metropolitan and provincial Victoria, metropolitan SA and a presence at the lucrative carnivals in NSW and QLD. He is everywhere. There is a large team of riders, unpredictable tactics and betting patterns. When interviewed by media about operations or strategy, he is about as reliable as Neil Balme. I believe this seemingly haphazard approach helps keep Weir a step ahead of punters, his own owners and clearly, the stewards. But there is one thing I’m certain of, despite the contradictions in his statements and horse performance, the inconclusive betting moves and the lack of a clear number 1 stable rider... Darren Weir is the best punter in the country right now.
Leysy Days said:
You’re not alone, Leysy. Old Jack taught me there is no such thing as a bad barrier, only bad jockeys. He also taught me that riders retire years before they stop riding. On the first axiom, I trust in the speed map more than the draw these days, although it’s a still a rule of merit. Unfortunately so many jockeys are using Dean Lester’s analysis so we see less positive riding from wider draws. An infuriating trend. I heard Benny Allen talking on racing.com on the weekend and he spoke about how much he relies on Lester for maps and form analysis. I had blamed his affiliation with Weir for his loss of form but the Lester revelation made perfect sense. Back to Jack’s axiom, if I’ve got Melham or Walker drawn awkwardly I will invest no matter how the speed map looks. Deferring to them is always wise if their horse is on the job. Both are money riders so support in betting will provide a pointer into their confidence levels and therefore their tactics. So I suppose I’m with Easy’s take a decisive rider with a responsive nag will overcome a bad gate. You’re right in suggesting track and starting position have an effect, Scotty. But QLD is the state where I find it most influential.
The second axiom (riders retire years before they stop riding.) is one I believe 100%. It is worth noting that before Hugh Bowman gave the nation a heart attack in the Turnbull, he was severely reprimanded by the stewards for not taking a gap the size of a Mack Truck on Ranier for the kid Cummings. In failing to take this gap, he got his mount beaten a lip. Public relations might’ve saved Bowman the indignity of a suspension for failing to give his horse every reasonable chance. But it was perhaps the most embarrassing ride an older star jock has put in this spring. Incidentally, the race Bowman was reprimanded in was won by Dwayne Dunn, who partnered the logical second elect, the recently gelded Wild Planet who had lead easily in his comeback at six furlongs when two stone lighter. Dunn missed the start on his heavily backed commodity, sat three wide, without cover, worse than midfield always improving his position. Not a good place to be ordinarily but at least Dunn gave the horse an uninterrupted run and knew the horse had the ability to be competitive despite the monumentally tough run in transit. By Dunn’s recent standards this is a good ride for him even though he won by virtue of another fading star prioritising his own safety in a game not for the faint hearted.
I’m sure this will come as a shock ;D but I will not back Dwayne Dunn anymore and I recently discovered one of my more learned punting mates independently landed on the same conclusion. Funnily enough for the same reason; too often he goes to the line under lock and key, up in the irons and alarmingly content to be going to the post with a lap full of horse that’s been untested. IMO a constantly updated jockey ladder is as important to returning a profit on horses as having an independently constructed football ladder is to guaranteeing a profit on the AFL. Dunn was never in the 8. But Bowman’s more like the fading Sydney Swans. Punters should have a ranking system for trainers too and that brings me to this...
easy said:
Obviously we have to be careful here. But in his career to date Weir has proved incredibly hard to catch. Even when stewards have found tubing equipment at stables or on floats with his runners they haven’t found positive swabs to throw the book at him. Robert Smerdon was also a trainer who stewards found very elusive. So they made sure that when they went for him again it would be the last time and he is now banned from racing for life. Smerdon did not have Weir’s weight of numbers. It was a much smaller operation. He didn’t have as strong a presence around the country in carnivals or at the smallest provincial venues like Mildura, Donald and Murtoa. He did not have a large presence in G1 racing in Melbourne. In fact his attempts at G1 level were rare. But the betting moves were definitive and conspicuous. The accuracy was alarming for bookmakers and they sent out veiled criticisms that could only have been about Smerdon regarding a leading stable that was operating at a 90% strike rate when the money was on. Smerdon has been unequivocally proven to have cheated. And while Aquanita was a leading stable it wasn’t a a huge stable, so the contamination of the industry isn’t as wide spread as the hypothetical world in which the leading stable in the country is proven to have cheated for a prolonged period of time.
In contrast, Weir has weight of numbers in G1 racing and a strong presence all year round in metropolitan and provincial Victoria, metropolitan SA and a presence at the lucrative carnivals in NSW and QLD. He is everywhere. There is a large team of riders, unpredictable tactics and betting patterns. When interviewed by media about operations or strategy, he is about as reliable as Neil Balme. I believe this seemingly haphazard approach helps keep Weir a step ahead of punters, his own owners and clearly, the stewards. But there is one thing I’m certain of, despite the contradictions in his statements and horse performance, the inconclusive betting moves and the lack of a clear number 1 stable rider... Darren Weir is the best punter in the country right now.
E
easy_tiger
Guest
Gypsy__Jazz said:
agree 100% Gyps.
on the first point, ive been using racing.coms jockey stats, in particular their last 50 rides strike rate in relation to career strike rate. Very interesting point about Bowman sliding. Getting complacent with the Winx golden goose maybe inevitable? I think Jmac is the best in the world right now. His racing.com stats back it up; 20% career win, 30% last 50 rides. he was already great, and hes put a 50% premium on top. he is white hot.
on the second point, Im slowly getting a slight handle on when to bet against a short priced Weir favourite. He seems to have a couple of jockeys adept at standing in the barriers or finding the horse in fronts heals in strategic races.
Edit: watched some internationals replays last night. Think Best Solution is a huge chance in the C Cup at odds. Will be sticking with Kings, but at $20 will be investing on Best Solution also. Will probably back best solution for the Unco's and try go to top of table ;D
Edit 2: An example of barriers influencing my decision making. Best Solution draws 17, Kings 6. King will get the run of the race a couple back on the fence, best solution will need to either work his arse off to get a spot or drop back and circle 'em. I back Kings.
Great chat lads.
This by one of the best form students in the game:
https://www.punters.com.au/news/5-mistakes-to-avoid-when-doing-form_157736/
Mistake #2 - Dismissing a horse due to a wide barrier
It might seem logical that a wide barrier is a significant disadvantage for a horse, and we hear in racing previews every day about how certain horses are “betting risks” because of their wide draw.
Every race and horse is a case-by-case basis, but on average, the market’s bias towards inside barriers makes them less profitable than outside barriers. For example, genuine chances up to $10 in metropolitan races drawn barrier 1-4 have returned -6.6% POT, while those drawn barrier 10+ have returned -3.5% POT. On average the market overreacts too much to wide barriers in its pricing, and that provides an additional profit margin for those horses as betting prospects.
If a horse lacks early speed and a significant change to a very wide draw is more likely to see it settle much further back than normal or suitable for this race, then by all means that is good reason to be put off a bet.
However, don’t be put off simply because of a general bias against wide barriers, and you should almost never let yourself be put off backing an on-pace runner that is drawn wide. They are among the most profitable bets you can find in racing.
This by one of the best form students in the game:
https://www.punters.com.au/news/5-mistakes-to-avoid-when-doing-form_157736/
Mistake #2 - Dismissing a horse due to a wide barrier
It might seem logical that a wide barrier is a significant disadvantage for a horse, and we hear in racing previews every day about how certain horses are “betting risks” because of their wide draw.
Every race and horse is a case-by-case basis, but on average, the market’s bias towards inside barriers makes them less profitable than outside barriers. For example, genuine chances up to $10 in metropolitan races drawn barrier 1-4 have returned -6.6% POT, while those drawn barrier 10+ have returned -3.5% POT. On average the market overreacts too much to wide barriers in its pricing, and that provides an additional profit margin for those horses as betting prospects.
If a horse lacks early speed and a significant change to a very wide draw is more likely to see it settle much further back than normal or suitable for this race, then by all means that is good reason to be put off a bet.
However, don’t be put off simply because of a general bias against wide barriers, and you should almost never let yourself be put off backing an on-pace runner that is drawn wide. They are among the most profitable bets you can find in racing.
Another good guide from Dan.
https://www.racenet.com.au/news/want-to-bet-like-a-pro-on-the-caulfield-and-melbourne-cups-20181017
Saying that, there are also horses for courses. 1400 Flem as pointed out a case in point,
https://www.racenet.com.au/news/want-to-bet-like-a-pro-on-the-caulfield-and-melbourne-cups-20181017
Saying that, there are also horses for courses. 1400 Flem as pointed out a case in point,
E
easy_tiger
Guest
I have a small interest in a couple going around at the 'Bool this afternoon. Race 3 Be Instant and Race 5 Queen Leonora. Both first up and both will improve on the run but still given a good chance probably more Queen Leonora than Be Instant but both around the $5 so worth a dollar each way. All care, no responsibility!
For the weekend, a couple at good odds
Caulfield Race 5 Scenic Sight (as I have previously stated I cannot catch D Weir so this makes the stablemate and favourite a certainty)
Adelaide Race 4 Duquessa
Both each way at double figure odds.
Sticking with Youngstar in the Cup but not overly confident as there are so many internationals it makes it hard to line up the form.
Good luck Punters.
T44
For the weekend, a couple at good odds
Caulfield Race 5 Scenic Sight (as I have previously stated I cannot catch D Weir so this makes the stablemate and favourite a certainty)
Adelaide Race 4 Duquessa
Both each way at double figure odds.
Sticking with Youngstar in the Cup but not overly confident as there are so many internationals it makes it hard to line up the form.
Good luck Punters.
T44
