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Thoroughbred racing
- Thread starter DragicevicFan
- Start date
Not a great day for me either - couldn't get close. Sully in the Derby worked way too hard but was still gallant. Backed the first winner and not much joy after that. Like all poor punters happy to blame the jockeys but still reckon Bowman is out of form and don't ask about Hyeronimus (sp?).
To top off the day had backed Red Cardinal in the Cup at juicy odds then found out it drew 24!
Will try to sell a few possessions to get a decent bank for Urban Ruler Thursday (just kidding)
Still a great day at Flemington. Will add my prognostications for Tuesday after a little form study and a lot of Tigathon watching!
T44
To top off the day had backed Red Cardinal in the Cup at juicy odds then found out it drew 24!
Will try to sell a few possessions to get a decent bank for Urban Ruler Thursday (just kidding)
Still a great day at Flemington. Will add my prognostications for Tuesday after a little form study and a lot of Tigathon watching!
T44
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easy_tiger
Guest
tigerman said:
carried the side TM. :fing32
good call on Aloisa i reckon.
Ive had the worst spring ever.
havnt even snuck a place.
thats punting. I'll saddle up again in Autumn, and probably back the tigers to go undefeated 2018 ;D
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easy_tiger
Guest
really like marmello in the cup, which is probably a good reason to back him to run 4th.
watched his tapes and he is a very versatile stayer. leads, swoops, kicks, grinds, and the longer the race, the better he goes.
havnt been so bullish about a Cup horse for a while.
so yeah, rule a line through him :hihi
watched his tapes and he is a very versatile stayer. leads, swoops, kicks, grinds, and the longer the race, the better he goes.
havnt been so bullish about a Cup horse for a while.
so yeah, rule a line through him :hihi
Dosage indexes for the Cup for anyone interested (from Sportsman).
1 Hartnell 0.26/1.13 7- 2-18- 7-0
2 Almandin -0.06/0.78 2- 3-18- 9-0
3 Humidor 0.03/1.13 3- 5-18- 2-4
4 Tiberian 0.88/3.57 5- 4- 7- 0-0
5 Marmelo 0.04/0.96 4- 6-25-10-1
6 Red Cardinal -0.05/0.73 4- 2-20-12-0
7 Johannes Vermeer 0.33/1.40 4- 4-12- 4-0
8 Bondi Beach 0.38/1.56 5- 6-17- 4-0
9 Max Dynamite 0.39/1.33 7- 1-16- 4-0
10 Ventura Storm 0.43/1.80 2- 3-8 - 1-0
11 Who Shot Thebarman 0.41/1.46 7- 4-16- 5-0
12 Wicklow Brave 0.00/0.73 5- 0-17-10-0
13 Big Duke 0.38/1.91 2- 4- 9- 0-1
14 US Army Ranger 0.00/0.80 3- 0-10- 4-1
15 Boom Time 1.09/7.31 18-23-13- 0-0
16 Gallante 0.08/0.82 7- 1-20-12-0
17 Libran -0.05/0.82 3- 1-10- 4-2
18 Nakeeta 0.42/1.40 3- 1- 6- 2-0
19 Single Gaze 1.15/4.78 13- 5- 7- 1-0
20 Wall Of Fire 0.43/1.80 2- 4- 6- 2-0
21 Thomas Hobson 0.46/2.29 3-12- 9- 3-1
22 Rekindling 0.18/1.20 3- 4-10- 4-1
23 Amelie's Star 0.38/1.78 7- 6-15- 0-4
24 Cismontane 0.41/1.67 6- 7-14- 4-1
1 Hartnell 0.26/1.13 7- 2-18- 7-0
2 Almandin -0.06/0.78 2- 3-18- 9-0
3 Humidor 0.03/1.13 3- 5-18- 2-4
4 Tiberian 0.88/3.57 5- 4- 7- 0-0
5 Marmelo 0.04/0.96 4- 6-25-10-1
6 Red Cardinal -0.05/0.73 4- 2-20-12-0
7 Johannes Vermeer 0.33/1.40 4- 4-12- 4-0
8 Bondi Beach 0.38/1.56 5- 6-17- 4-0
9 Max Dynamite 0.39/1.33 7- 1-16- 4-0
10 Ventura Storm 0.43/1.80 2- 3-8 - 1-0
11 Who Shot Thebarman 0.41/1.46 7- 4-16- 5-0
12 Wicklow Brave 0.00/0.73 5- 0-17-10-0
13 Big Duke 0.38/1.91 2- 4- 9- 0-1
14 US Army Ranger 0.00/0.80 3- 0-10- 4-1
15 Boom Time 1.09/7.31 18-23-13- 0-0
16 Gallante 0.08/0.82 7- 1-20-12-0
17 Libran -0.05/0.82 3- 1-10- 4-2
18 Nakeeta 0.42/1.40 3- 1- 6- 2-0
19 Single Gaze 1.15/4.78 13- 5- 7- 1-0
20 Wall Of Fire 0.43/1.80 2- 4- 6- 2-0
21 Thomas Hobson 0.46/2.29 3-12- 9- 3-1
22 Rekindling 0.18/1.20 3- 4-10- 4-1
23 Amelie's Star 0.38/1.78 7- 6-15- 0-4
24 Cismontane 0.41/1.67 6- 7-14- 4-1
On Humidor after last week. A couple of good judges have told me he won't stay, and as a very occasional social punter I take it on board. However he's out of a Zabeel mare and the Sir Tristram line, though in decline, is steeped in Melboune Cup success on both sides of the chart. Subzero is the only Cup runner I've seen in 30 years with bulletproof credentials... Humidor's the type you either take to win in trifectas or put a line through completely. If not for running into a freak, he's a Cox Plate champ by panels and like Saintly who went into the Cup with similar queries, I reckon he wins if he gets the trip, even with 56kg. The 9/1 currently on offer is not quite good value, but not bad either.
jb03 said:
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
That's my gut feel only, I haven't "handicapped" the race as such. Yeah it's been a good guide. Five of the last dozen winners have come through it, more than any other race.
The Mackinnon has fallen out of favour to the extent that it's been removed as a lead-up. The Cox Plate is the new Mackinnon.
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easy_tiger
Guest
jb03 said:
Essendon used it, with mixed results.
any data on how the index has performed on horses L2R2?
easy said:
I haven't kept a record and only use it as a quick reference, mainly for getting a bead on the breeding of internationals that I'm not familiar with. It's more fashionable in the US where the racing is speed-based and mostly on dirt, and the art of punting or "handicapping" approaches a science. Over many decades it had a freakish record in the Kentucky Derby (2000m), where it eliminated many beaten favourites and suggested a number of longshot winners as viable chances. Pretty sure the golden rule of putting a line through horses with an index above 4.00 has failed a few times since dosage gained popular attention in the 1980's.
It all depends on maintaining a list of prepotent sires, or "chefs-de-race" as the inventor referred to them. I don't have Sportsman's list, and the list here would be different to other parts of the world where for example Sir Tristram is unheard of (our Star Kingdom gets a mention in the US list however).
jb03 said:
Dosage figures suggest he's going to blow up about 3:03pm. But frankly if I was really keen on something, I wouldn't be deterred solely by that.
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easy_tiger
Guest
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
thanks. interesting
thegdog said:
I can provide assistance on what not to back gdog.
I like marmello in the cup. Which narrows the field to 23 for you ;D
Seriously though, my punting rule #23 says
'if you desperately need a winner, try not to bet'
Just noticed on Ch 7 news that Metro was an absolutely brilliant service at Flemington yesterday...........NOT!!
What a joke.
What a joke.
TigerForce said:
Haven't been to Derby Day since Stylish Century won in 1989. It was so crowded that people were hanging out of the carriages, literally. Think the crowd was only 50K.
