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Thoroughbred racing
- Thread starter DragicevicFan
- Start date
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easy_tiger
Guest
Dyer'ere said:
Its a compelling case you mount Capn, and on face value, it appears to be the first horse youve called all spring under 60-1.
I suspect you may be, and I hope you are, right.
I'll be staying off the race because it doesnt fit my bill. I like races where one horse appears classier and faster and fitter, more at home, and sexier (easy, huh?) than all the others and there seems half a dozen of 'em in this Coolmore sprint. Its a
helluva race this year that I will watch with a regular heart beat, cheering for Star Turn.
Using my approach, theres not a lot on offer on Derby day, cause the fields are high class. But bending my criteria just slightly, will enable me to invest in The United States (pork bellies) in the Mile, with moderate confidence.
He's a disappointed Cox Plate horse trying to pick up some spring money. Ive said before, 3rd up over a mile is my simplest and most enduring system, and The Ranvet win in the Autumn is a very good formline.
The disparity between horse and field quality is the greatest in this race IMO, and 6-1 will be the best odds ive had all Spring.
I also invested in some infrastructure: Bought myself a 15yo Cuban rum to enjoy from a teacup.
Oh yeah. Got an actually-good offer from my bookie. Add 25% to any odds, one off, for any amount (I expected her to say "you can have 50c on it", like most scumbag-hooray-henry-cheating-*smile*s, but shes a lady). So I go 'Wind Jameka out to 8s
please, and fry me the maximum chips". She was panicking a bit, knowing I wouldnt normally punt The 2 mile Handicap. And hey, if she doesnt win, ive still got the infrastructure in place for posterity.
good punting all
edit: One other horse qualifies for the day under another of my enduring punting systems - Matthew Ellerton schooled horses over the straight 6. Durendal in the last.
Everybody who's done form overnight has noticed that Hey Doc is a grading certainty in the first race Saturday - the Carbine Club Stakes.
He's a 100 class (an open class horse, suited to WFA if adult). And the others are 70-odd class (very much restricted or you might like to think of it as provincial class). You can see the chasm.
Because the Sydney reputations have arrived the provincial horses are favoured. To beat the WFA class horse.
$5 about Hey Doc. Should be $2.50. If third up $1.50. Wrong price.
He's a 100 class (an open class horse, suited to WFA if adult). And the others are 70-odd class (very much restricted or you might like to think of it as provincial class). You can see the chasm.
Because the Sydney reputations have arrived the provincial horses are favoured. To beat the WFA class horse.
$5 about Hey Doc. Should be $2.50. If third up $1.50. Wrong price.
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easy_tiger
Guest
Funny, I did the form for the Carbine last night and came to a different conclusion. Yes, Hey Doc ran a great Guineas, but was it his grand final? Drawn widest, he'll have to come round the field again. There are doubts there for me, but if he looks good parading, I might save.
I'm an Acatour fan, but I don't think there's any fat in his price.
There are two value runners in this race: Bezel and Violate.
Bezel is not quite the value he was last night when I got on at 11s, but you can still get $8.50. This is a horse on the improve, from the flying Godolphin stable, who last start ran the mile a fraction of a second quicker than they did in the Guineas. Yes, different tracks, but both Good 3s, and here's the kicker; Bezel carried 61kg, Hey Doc 56.5. This week Hey Doc has 58 and Bezel 56 - a 6.5kg swing.
Violate was luckless in the Guineas Prelude and flew home last start to beat Acatour and almost steal the Gothic Stakes. The extra distance will suit and from the inside draw he'll be closer to the speed. $19 available and overs, IMO.
I'm an Acatour fan, but I don't think there's any fat in his price.
There are two value runners in this race: Bezel and Violate.
Bezel is not quite the value he was last night when I got on at 11s, but you can still get $8.50. This is a horse on the improve, from the flying Godolphin stable, who last start ran the mile a fraction of a second quicker than they did in the Guineas. Yes, different tracks, but both Good 3s, and here's the kicker; Bezel carried 61kg, Hey Doc 56.5. This week Hey Doc has 58 and Bezel 56 - a 6.5kg swing.
Violate was luckless in the Guineas Prelude and flew home last start to beat Acatour and almost steal the Gothic Stakes. The extra distance will suit and from the inside draw he'll be closer to the speed. $19 available and overs, IMO.
Missrock in the Wakeful, DeLittle Engine in the Lexus, So Si Bon in the Derby and Mount Panorama at 20-1 to get me off to a flyer in the first hopefully. Good luck and good punting guys & girls on the best race card anywhere in the world.
I am sticking with Pretty Punk in the Wakeful and agree that the Coolmore looks a belter. I've taken $5.50 enhanced odds on Star Turn but I'll be having something on Astern as well. He covered the last 600 of the Roman Consul in 32.29 - that's low-flying. Yes, he did it after jogging the first half, and no, he didn't win, but this is a horse that wintered poorly and had the stable worried he wouldn't get up for spring. They left him in the paddock a bit longer than planned and he put on 30kg. If he's improved again, he'll take a power of beating.
Always a stack of money to be made backing Sydney horses in the Melbourne Spring.
I'm with Leysy on Oceanographer - great first-up run at Geelong.
I haven't done the form for the rest of the card yet but first thoughts are the Derby is very tough to pick, while in the Myer Classic I like Dixie Blossoms and Euro Angel.
Always a stack of money to be made backing Sydney horses in the Melbourne Spring.
I'm with Leysy on Oceanographer - great first-up run at Geelong.
I haven't done the form for the rest of the card yet but first thoughts are the Derby is very tough to pick, while in the Myer Classic I like Dixie Blossoms and Euro Angel.
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easy_tiger
Guest
Coughlan24 said:
A few keen students I know like So Si Bon. I havnt seen it race, and am confused by the form. A win at Pakenham? What am I missing?
Im climbing on The Capn's back Derby Day.
The budget on Hey Doc from the outset. That way, im either betting the rest of the day with bookies money, which almost always proves an effective strategy, or I can forget the races and go to the beach. or something.
I love things simple.
Will have something on Prized Icon without being super confident. Raced on the fence where the going was rubbish, got a significant check when he tried to switch out, then finished as well as anything bar the winner. Grinded home rather than flashed but is the type that trains on, and I just have a feeling.
Great banter on this thread ATM BTW
The first - Always respect Jack, but history tells leysy it is bloody hard for 3 y.o's to give weight to other gooduns and win. The only knock on the Doc. Bezel for leysy.
The first - Always respect Jack, but history tells leysy it is bloody hard for 3 y.o's to give weight to other gooduns and win. The only knock on the Doc. Bezel for leysy.
easy said:
I'm on it (which probably means everyone else should jump off
)Bowman and Laing good combo. Pretty good Derby preparation and nice run last week. Finished off very nicely on an unsuitable wet track. Think the favourite will be hard to beat but the difference in price sways a greedy bastard like myself. Morvada is an interesting runner. Set a strong pace last week and held on to be beaten only half a length by the Derby favourite. Big price tomorrow as well.
Leysy Days said:
I've got Bezel third pick, Bryan. But my second pick High Thingo may need this one one the way to the Sandown Guineas.
Back on the Ascot Vale Stakes -
Capitalist is out. Ostensibly with a stone bruise.
Snowden wanted to run him in teh Darley, not the AV. Wisely. The 3yo race is much tougher.
Suppose that even if the 3yos back up in the Darley they are OTT. (They probably won't back up BTW.)
There's Capitalist waiting. Fresh in the much weaker race.
He's not good enough to beat the 3yos tomorrow IMO but he's very smart. This is the smart move for a stallion.
This Darley will fall away. It will be much weaker than the Ascot Vale. The race from which Snowden has shrewdly scratched. $11 ATM.
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easy_tiger
Guest
Leysy Days said:
Im backing The Capn to the hilt.
The Doc runs faster than the others, its gonna be quite an out of control snowball-type fiesta situation.
Then if The United States wins, I'm gonna buy a barrel of rum from Fidel Castro's personal cellar.
and invite tigersnake and Capn over for a drink on the veranda. might take the boat out, puff on some of those e-vap cuban cigars and shoot some snapper with last years infrastructural investments.
Rahahaha...Gold ET. This thread has had the biggest resurgence.
OK - Form done.
Race 1 - Bezel.
Race 2 - Not sure so following Spooks tip - Pretty Pink
Race 3 - Leysy's old mate Sheidel. Vezelay to save.
Race 4 - OCEANOGRAPHER. Capitals because it just wins. Bet of the program and possibly week.
Race 5 - With Jack - Star Turn. Big. Big. Big. Our next star sprinter.
Race 6 - Danish Twist small. Tough race though.
Race 7 - Tough again - Small on Captain Duffy and Jacks fav All out of Love $160/1 on the fair haha!
Race 8 - Tough - Following in the in form ET - USA, USA, USA! Bon Aurum the blowout.
Good Luck all on the greatest day of the year!!!!!
Anyone in the Car Park on track flick us a PM.
Race 9 -
OK - Form done.
Race 1 - Bezel.
Race 2 - Not sure so following Spooks tip - Pretty Pink
Race 3 - Leysy's old mate Sheidel. Vezelay to save.
Race 4 - OCEANOGRAPHER. Capitals because it just wins. Bet of the program and possibly week.
Race 5 - With Jack - Star Turn. Big. Big. Big. Our next star sprinter.
Race 6 - Danish Twist small. Tough race though.
Race 7 - Tough again - Small on Captain Duffy and Jacks fav All out of Love $160/1 on the fair haha!
Race 8 - Tough - Following in the in form ET - USA, USA, USA! Bon Aurum the blowout.
Good Luck all on the greatest day of the year!!!!!
Anyone in the Car Park on track flick us a PM.
Race 9 -
Great card. About the only day of the year I miss living in Aust.
1. Prefer Hey Doc but Bezel better value. Will couple both into my Cup pick.
2. Tiamo Grace. Best of the day IMO.
3. Too tough. The fave if I must bet.
4. Real Love, but with no conviction.
5. Star Turn.
6. Whispering Brook with the flyweight.
7. The Elixir just wins. So Si Bob and Highlad the tri.
8. Palentino to atone.
9. Yuck. Ball of Muscle if I need something in double figures to get out of the red.
1. Prefer Hey Doc but Bezel better value. Will couple both into my Cup pick.
2. Tiamo Grace. Best of the day IMO.
3. Too tough. The fave if I must bet.
4. Real Love, but with no conviction.
5. Star Turn.
6. Whispering Brook with the flyweight.
7. The Elixir just wins. So Si Bob and Highlad the tri.
8. Palentino to atone.
9. Yuck. Ball of Muscle if I need something in double figures to get out of the red.
