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easy_tiger
Guest
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
how does one intrepret such data roachy? you want big numbers, or little ones? or disparities?
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Thoroughbred racing
- Thread starter DragicevicFan
- Start date
how does one intrepret such data roachy? you want big numbers, or little ones? or disparities?
E
easy_tiger
Guest
jb03 said:
up to a mile and a half, I think hes clearly No.2 this season JB.
Im betting against him for 2 reasons.
1. I backed him in last years Cup, and he was very underwhelming. Sure, hes a better horse this season, and although hes won over 2 miles, I reckon his best work is done over 2000m, and
2. I reckon he wouldve got within 4L of Winx if he was peaking. i.e. I reckon he peaked in the Turnbull this campaign.
Obviously, theres a million punters dont agree with me.
I think this years field is relatively rubbish, evidenced by the handicapper having to stick a kilo of lead in every saddlebag to get to minimum topweight.
Scottish was meant to be the best import, and its owner didnt reckon they could get passed Jameka and Hartnell.
I'm about 85% max-bullish on Jameka. I think she's an extraordinary mare. Ive said it before, I love her length (Lee Freedman said shes built more like a 5 yo bull than a 4 yo mare), her stride and her burst.
easy said:
Lower numbers indicate greater likelihood of being able to stay.
The set of five numbers e.g. 5-6-23-2-0 is a points tally based on the number of times influential stallions appear in the horse's breeding, short distance specialists on the left, long distance on the right. The first two figures 0.39/1.67 are generated from those numbers. A dosage of 1.00/1.00 indicates a pedigree with a perfect balance of sprinting/staying blood.
e.g. Dunaden with his somewhat obscure breeding was a Cup anomaly with a high dosage index of 3.80. You can see the figures across the top of the page on the link: 0-9-1-2-0, 3.80/0.58
Plenty have called "*smile*!", and fair enough. I use them as a rough guide only, but a high dosage figure rings alarm bells in a Melbourne Cup.
Some more info
Not keen on this year's race, might play a trifecta and hope for the best. Big Orange is on the fifth line of betting with the same form (2nd Dubai Cup/1st Princess Of Wales/1st Goodwood Cup) as Cavalryman who was a raceday scratching when unfancied in 2014.
Dismissing the seven visitors who haven't bothered to have a warm-up here, given none have won that way since Vintage Crop. A couple of them are jumpers so this might be the year; I'll wear it if so.
Am left with the lightweight Almandin, who I suspect Lloyd is very happy with and didn't want to risk a penalty after winning here a month ago. Exospheric next best, expect him to improve on Caulfield. Lots of respect for the class runners Hartnell and Jameka, but slight doubt on each over two miles in this race (yeah I know Hartnell has already won this trip and Jameka bolted in at Caulfield). Looks as though it'll be truly run with a few natural leaders and others who like to camp close up.
Only two Australian-breds, and the two Kiwis are hopeless. A bit sad.
Dismissing the seven visitors who haven't bothered to have a warm-up here, given none have won that way since Vintage Crop. A couple of them are jumpers so this might be the year; I'll wear it if so.
Am left with the lightweight Almandin, who I suspect Lloyd is very happy with and didn't want to risk a penalty after winning here a month ago. Exospheric next best, expect him to improve on Caulfield. Lots of respect for the class runners Hartnell and Jameka, but slight doubt on each over two miles in this race (yeah I know Hartnell has already won this trip and Jameka bolted in at Caulfield). Looks as though it'll be truly run with a few natural leaders and others who like to camp close up.
Only two Australian-breds, and the two Kiwis are hopeless. A bit sad.
LeeToRainesToRoach said:
I don't buy into the theory that you dismiss any visitor without a lead-up run. Plenty have run placings and there's also been plenty who have good lead-up runs on Aus soil then fallen in a heap in the Cup.
Am with you on Almandin. Will be my main go. Might even take Lloyd to fill the placings.
scottyturnerscurse said:
I just can't sort them out. Was it Central Park that had form from Sweden and almost pinched a Cup at cricket score odds?
They're very canny men who are spending $100K plus to bring horses to the other side of the world, but who got it mostly right is only evident in hindsight. In many cases they don't bring the right horse/prepare it the right way/give the right instructions to win a Melbourne Cup.
Some have only come into calculations on the strength of one run. When has the Ebor Hcp ever been a good Cup pointer? Prior to its Irish St.Leger win, I'm not backing Wicklow Brave with your money. In fact, after racing upside down and defeating three rivals, I'm still not touching it with your money, yet it features prominently in deliberations. I respect that, but I don't understand it. Nothing is more deflating than doing your hard-earned on a much-touted international flop, except maybe a bad Richmond loss. Drum Taps and Double Trigger, you bastards.
The number who've tried and failed to win without an Australian lead-up since Vintage Crop is now over 80, and I respect that above all when looking for the winner. As said above, maybe this will be the year.
Just back on Derby Day all the smarties were on Oceanographer and declaring it.
Spook has cleaned up. Leysy too probs. Elmer nailed the Derby.
I got a hiding. Culminating in Vengeur Masque lobbing at 25th in order of entry, *smile* it.
We have to review the AV stakes at some stage too.
I'm in love with the MC programme. The Cup looks easy. Form time for me.
I have a Melbourne Cup obs. I have, for forty years(?), put a line through English-trained horses in the Cup. Over a hundred of them. Maybe over two hundred. Bulletproof. So in the MC I bet into a 90% market or even better.
I do this because the Poms keep bringing the wrong horses out. Not just because I hate the English. ;D
I may back a Pom this year. And declare it.
The Tenno Sho and the Melbourne Cup are the longest mile-and-a-half races in the world. Maybe one of the Pommies has figured that out.
Spook has cleaned up. Leysy too probs. Elmer nailed the Derby.
I got a hiding. Culminating in Vengeur Masque lobbing at 25th in order of entry, *smile* it.
We have to review the AV stakes at some stage too.
I'm in love with the MC programme. The Cup looks easy. Form time for me.
I have a Melbourne Cup obs. I have, for forty years(?), put a line through English-trained horses in the Cup. Over a hundred of them. Maybe over two hundred. Bulletproof. So in the MC I bet into a 90% market or even better.
I do this because the Poms keep bringing the wrong horses out. Not just because I hate the English. ;D
I may back a Pom this year. And declare it.
The Tenno Sho and the Melbourne Cup are the longest mile-and-a-half races in the world. Maybe one of the Pommies has figured that out.
Yeah launched at The Big O! Jack. Capped a good day with Sheidel. Nicely building the bank all spring courtesy of the one's we're declaring getting up.
Going to roll it into him to win tomorrow as well. If he can run home those splits again (why not with 52Kgs) will take a hell of a beating. Think they'll run along in this years event so will get his chance.
Going to roll it into him to win tomorrow as well. If he can run home those splits again (why not with 52Kgs) will take a hell of a beating. Think they'll run along in this years event so will get his chance.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
Indulge me a second, blast from the past. Got the MC trif in '06. Delta Blues, Pop Rock and Maybe Better. Memory is blurred but the first 3 were paying something like 7-1, 15-1, 25-1. When I got it I was watching with my older bro, who is fair dinkum Rain Man with odds and lives to punt. I was a student at the time, so you can imagine my jubilance when it came in. As I was waiting for the dividend my bro said, it will pay at least $2K, and probably $3K and maybe more. Divi cam up and my bro said 'WTF?" Went down to collect and the TAB bloke said 'got me stuffed why it paid that'. It came up in conversations for years since where my bro has said 'Its got me buggered that divi.'
anyway flash to the present, my bro is reading David Walsh's autobiography, the famous pro punter and betting market manipulator and creator and owner of MONA gallery in Tas. Anyway, he mentions that exact trifecta as one he hit big with his algorithm-based betting. Mystery solved. Prick owes me $2K
tigersnake said:
Indulge me a second, blast from the past. Got the MC trif in '06. Delta Blues, Pop Rock and Maybe Better. Memory is blurred but the first 3 were paying something like 7-1, 15-1, 25-1. When I got it I was watching with my older bro, who is fair dinkum Rain Man with odds and lives to punt. I was a student at the time, so you can imagine my jubilance when it came in. As I was waiting for the dividend my bro said, it will pay at least $2K, and probably $3K and maybe more. Divi cam up and my bro said 'WTF?" Went down to collect and the TAB bloke said 'got me stuffed why it paid that'. It came up in conversations for years since where my bro has said 'Its got me buggered that divi.'
anyway flash to the present, my bro is reading David Walsh's autobiography, the famous pro punter and betting market manipulator and creator and owner of MONA gallery in Tas. Anyway, he mentions that exact trifecta as one he hit big with his algorithm-based betting. Mystery solved. Prick owes me $2K
spook said:
wouldn't be the first time. Tend to either die in the arse or grind home for a place, but we'll see.
scottyturnerscurse said:
Hope you're set, Almandin's price is shrinking faster than a Richmond lead. $17 into $11 on TAB fixed.
Re: Thoroughbred Horse Racing [Merged]
I even used a bit of third person back in the day 8-
Leysy Days said:
I even used a bit of third person back in the day 8-
Tony Braxton-Hicks
There are no stupid ideas, just stupid people
Of those with local form it's Almandin, Oceanographer and Exosphere for me. I don't trust Hartnell at two miles and have seen Jameka plug away enough over 2400 (CC excepted) to doubt she'll run a strong two miles. She'd also need to carry weight for a 4yo mare, and her pedigree is suspect.
Of the internats, Wicklow Brave and Heartbreak City look the most likely. Big Orange has decent form but he wouldn't have finished fifth last year without the fast rail and the carnage behind him. I don't understand the love for Bondi Beach either.
Of the internats, Wicklow Brave and Heartbreak City look the most likely. Big Orange has decent form but he wouldn't have finished fifth last year without the fast rail and the carnage behind him. I don't understand the love for Bondi Beach either.
