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Thoroughbred racing
- Thread starter DragicevicFan
- Start date
That NZ nutcase Xtravagant is going around 2nd up in the Rupert Clarke. Didn't look to be a lot of pace and he's drawn soft in 6, but I have grave reservations about they way they are preparing him. Cox Plate was allegedly the target and he's suspect at the mile. G1 WFA at 2040 when gelding him isn't an option seems fanciful. Full of himself first up and got his head on the side and refused to go a yard. I'd had high hopes to make some coin on him this this campaign. Any horse that can break 1.22 for 7f and 1.09 for 6f needs to be respected. Has a high cruising speed and a turn of foot. $9 at the moment. Prefer to see at this stage. If it gets out I might be tempted but *smile* he went like a busted arse first up. If he plays up again I won't forgive myself. Plenty of study to come and looks a betting affair as always.
Are you going to make me go all the way to Caulfield to get that mail, Leysy? The missus and I are living at the top of the 1200m start at the valley and I'm going to have to give her a fair sling to get out to Caulfield. (Still haven't got her a ring so I'm having to bet more and more on the sly ) Having said all that, I'm keen. A good night at the valley will put me into calculations. Jack was keen last I heard.
Are you going to make me go all the way to Caulfield to get that mail, Leysy? The missus and I are living at the top of the 1200m start at the valley and I'm going to have to give her a fair sling to get out to Caulfield. (Still haven't got her a ring so I'm having to bet more and more on the sly ) Having said all that, I'm keen. A good night at the valley will put me into calculations. Jack was keen last I heard.
Awesome Rock in the Underwood.
Have a thousand reasons why, will go into more detail tomorrow.
lol at the ring mate. Yes get along! You too Spook!
Have a thousand reasons why, will go into more detail tomorrow.
lol at the ring mate. Yes get along! You too Spook!
$8 is generous for a bloke who was first past the post in the Australian Cup and brained them second up in the Feehan. He's tactically versatile too. Look forward to hearing your case in the Underwood, Leysy
Leysy Days said:
Alright - Leysy will explain.
The favourite Black Heart Bart (BHB) is a good sprinter that has won 13 from 22 up to 1400m. What a horse.
Record above that though is 0 from 11 including not getting the 1600m last start.
The race also has The Cleaner in it. It will be a strong 1800 metres. And it's $2.50.
Back at your peril.
Pass.
The second favourite is an uber talented mare Lucia Valentina. Actually love this mare in it's right conditions.
Will it get it? No!
She's NEEDS the cut out. And there will be a race for her leysy will tip this Spring. Likely Flemington Cup Week if damp.
Caulfield is currently a Good 3 with no rain forecast.
She is 1 win zero placings from 6 second up. Bu the kicker:
She is 1 from 16 on Good tracks, with NO rain forecast.
Pass.
The rest are either out of form/short of distance - Tarzino, Tavago, Prince of Penzance.
Not good enough now/never - The Cleaner, Jacquinot Bay, Howard Be Thy Name.
It leaves only two -
The Winner:
Awesome Rock.
Non winner turned winner - The Best kind. Punters/Bookies alike risk from previous misconceptions.
From his past 7 starts he's been across the line FIRST 3 times including an Australian Cup and a Feehan by a margin. Yes some were unlucky, but it's only a guess they make the margin. His Peter Young this T/D was also a bottler. Any of those are good enough for this.
He jumps from 2, gets the suck run behind the bunny (Cleaner) peels off at the top, explodes and wins.
BET OF THE SPRING.
Only danger, and the one leysy can't dismiss - He or She. Back to make a profit and quinella's/tris with the winner.
jb03 said:
Defo in mate. Trying to scrounge members pass.
If not - going GA with the real punters.
Dyer'ere said:
Might need to hit up one of the other clan that may or may not post here so you can both get along mate. ;D
Compelling reasoning, Brian. I missed the $8 but have followed you in at $7.
A couple more:
I have already backed Evacuation in the Caulfield Guineas, so hedging around him in the Prelude.
My two main bets are on Archives and Saracino, with a spec at odds on I'm Tellin Ya and a saver on Revolving Door.
R1 - Magic Alibi and Jalan Jalan the two best chances, with a bit on Mossin Around and a saver on Tina Melina.
Rosehill R8 - Caped Crusader.
A couple more:
I have already backed Evacuation in the Caulfield Guineas, so hedging around him in the Prelude.
My two main bets are on Archives and Saracino, with a spec at odds on I'm Tellin Ya and a saver on Revolving Door.
R1 - Magic Alibi and Jalan Jalan the two best chances, with a bit on Mossin Around and a saver on Tina Melina.
Rosehill R8 - Caped Crusader.
Leysy Days said:
Great WFA analysis, Leysy. Good post. It's the kind of race that JD would refuse to analyse these days because "they're all varmints".
Your knocks on Black Heart Bart and Lucia are well justified, LD. They're astonishingly short. Although given the lack of proven WFA heavyweights I could understand why a punter trusted in D K Geir to get the job done with his vastly improved galloper. Even LV's form looms large in an event like this. Her run behind Winx in the Warwick Stakes was more than adequate for a race of this calibre. These two are at the top of the board due to the embarrassing lack of quality in the race. Both would need to get out significantly to be of interest and I'll be laying them both for the reasons you mentioned.
Awesome Rock is definitely the wrong price and you're right about him being a nonnie that found the line. I also agree he appears to have the best credentials for the race. The fact that he followed up the relegation from first to second at G1 WFA in the Aus Cup with such a commanding win in the Feehan at his next preparation places him at the forefront of discussions. There's been a bit of money around for him, might be students (or was it just you, Leysy? ) doing the form so it will be interesting to see if he continues to firm.
There are a couple of class barometers here. The Cleaner, a geriatric who you rightly mention has never been up to the top level, and The Melbourne Cup winner... interestingly, he's another vastly improved galloper in Weir's stable. He's got quite a few of those. He's also got Howard Be Thy Name in here. I wonder if Weir has got a trick up his sleeve for him? 100-1. What will he be on the fair? Maybe 200s? That's a number that commands my attention. He is an entire, so running well would be of benefit to connections. Zahra is on him, not PoP. Wintered in Queensland, had a significant betting move first up, drawn soft etc. Anyway, if The Cleaner or PoP are anywhere near the finish we can condemn all the fit horses around and behind them.
As always, tempo is everything. Given He or She won't want to get cluttered up too far back on the rail, Awesome Rock could land one off the fence. I agree that he maps very well, Leysy. He should find himself near the favourite, who should be full of running at the 400. The 4yos drawn a little wide, are wildcards IMO. Both could (should) push forward if they step and that forces The Cleaner over the top of them. Black Heart Bart is drawn underneath that potential wave of early speed, so Brad would have to give one of his most special rides to somehow not find cover. They are all likely to find handsome spots behind him with Jacquinot Bay lobbing in a soft spot as well. Since The Cleaner has drawn so wide and he's has to get around a former 6-7f horse in BHB as well as a host of others who will be looking for plum spots on the speed, it's hard to see him having an easy time of it. The race should be truly run.
Given you've made Awesome Rock your bet of the Spring, Brian, I won't slow it down with my money... yet. But if he somehow gets out a little bit, you'll have to carry me too.
Nice work Gyps. Reckon you map in right.
FWIW BHB will look the winner at the 200m before being collared by THE ROCK!!!!!!!!!!
BTW there's plenty of room for you to get on. Your only a little fella!! ;D
FWIW BHB will look the winner at the 200m before being collared by THE ROCK!!!!!!!!!!
BTW there's plenty of room for you to get on. Your only a little fella!! ;D
